Knesset building, seat of Israel's parliament, in Jerusalem

Photo: Gary Todd from Xinzheng, China / Wikimedia Commons, CC0

Israel Election 2026: Polls Show No Bloc Reaching 61 Seats

by

With 16 days left before the Israel election 2026 on Tuesday, Oct. 27, new polls show neither Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s bloc nor the Zionist opposition reaching the 61 seats needed for a Knesset majority. Four surveys summarized by the Jerusalem Post on Oct. 11 put both camps at about 52 seats on average, with Gadi Eisenkot’s Yashar party leading or tied in each one.

Israel Election 2026 Polls: Where the Race Stands

The four polls, from Maariv, Channel 13, Kan News and Channel 12, told slightly different stories. Maariv had the two blocs level at 52 seats each, with Arab parties at a combined 12. Channel 13 had Yashar and Netanyahu’s Likud tied at 20 seats apiece but gave Netanyahu’s bloc a 55-50 edge, with Arab parties at 15.

Kan’s poll placed Yashar first with 23 seats, Likud at 21 and former prime minister Naftali Bennett’s B’Yachad at 12, leaving Eisenkot’s bloc at 52 against 51 for Netanyahu’s. Channel 12 also had Yashar at 23 and Likud at 21, with the opposition at 54, the coalition at 49 and Arab parties at 13.

A broader average from the tracking site Israel Votes 2026, using the latest poll from each of eight pollsters through Oct. 9, showed Netanyahu’s bloc at 55.0 seats and the Zionist opposition at 48.4. Only one of those eight polls had either side at 61 or more. The site noted that when it removes polls by Channel 14 and i24NEWS, both produced by firms linked to Shlomo Filber, the gap narrows to 52.3 versus 50.7. In that average, Likud is the largest single party at 22.4 seats, ahead of Yashar at 21.2 and B’Yachad at 11.1.

How Israel’s System Works

Israel uses nationwide proportional representation, with voters choosing party lists rather than individual candidates, Al Jazeera explained. The 120 Knesset seats are divided according to each list’s share of the vote, as long as it clears a 3.25% threshold, so any list that passes wins at least four seats. No party has ever won an outright majority, which makes coalition building central. After the vote, the president asks the politician considered best placed to form a government to try to assemble a coalition.

This vote is also unusual for being on time. The Times of Israel reported in July that it would be the first Israeli election held on its original schedule since 1988, and that Netanyahu’s government, formed on Dec. 29, 2022, would be the first to complete a full term since 1973. The Knesset formally dissolved on July 17.

The Main Contenders

Eisenkot, a former military chief of staff, leads the new Yashar party. Bennett is running on a joint ticket with former prime minister Yair Lapid. Netanyahu’s Likud anchors a bloc that also includes Otzma Yehudit, the Religious Zionist Party and the ultra-Orthodox parties Shas and United Torah Judaism.

Military service for ultra-Orthodox men is one of the campaign’s sharpest issues. Al Jazeera reported that Eisenkot, Lapid and Bennett have all ruled out continuing the current government’s approach on the question, which has kept the ultra-Orthodox parties in Netanyahu’s coalition.

The Swing Factors

Small parties near the threshold could decide the outcome. Ofer Winter’s People of Israel, which counts toward Netanyahu’s bloc, crossed the line in Channel 13’s poll with five seats but fell below it in the Kan and Channel 12 surveys. A joint list led by Yoaz Hendel and Yaron Zelekha, which is not aligned with either bloc, won four seats in some polls and missed in others. Benny Gantz’s Blue and White polled below the threshold in all four.

Arab parties, polling between 12 and 15 seats combined, are the other variable. The Times of Israel reported that the Joint Arab List said it was willing to provide a “safety net” for an anti-Netanyahu coalition, conditioned on a pathway to a Palestinian state.

The campaign is unfolding against an unsettled regional picture, including the stalled second phase of the Gaza ceasefire and a Lebanon border pilot zone that has stalled over Hezbollah disarmament. Al Jazeera reported on Oct. 11 that mediated talks to end the U.S.-Israel war on Iran remain deadlocked, with no breakthrough expected before the U.S. midterms and Israel’s vote; our coverage of the US blockade of Iran and the Strait of Hormuz tracks that conflict.

What Happens After Oct. 27

Once results are certified, the president holds consultations with each party that won seats and then assigns the task of forming a government. If the polls hold, neither bloc would have a ready-made majority, which would put the threshold parties and the Arab lists at the center of any coalition math.

Sources