Mariupol Siege Death Toll: 8,000 to 25,000+ Dead, Feb–May 2022

The Mariupol siege death toll remains unsettled more than four years after Russian forces took the Ukrainian port city. The documentary 20 Days in Mariupol, produced by PBS FRONTLINE and The Associated Press and posted in full on the FRONTLINE YouTube channel, shows the first weeks of the assault through the eyes of AP journalists. This report sets the film’s account beside what independent investigators and officials have published about how many people died between Feb. 24 and May 20, 2022.

What the video is

The video is the full documentary “20 Days in Mariupol”, published by the channel FRONTLINE PBS | Official. Its director, cinematographer and writer is Mstyslav Chernov, an AP video journalist; Evgeniy Maloletka was the still photographer and Vasilisa Stepanenko the field producer, according to FRONTLINE. The film won the Oscar for Best Documentary Feature at the 96th Academy Awards in March 2024, AP reported. The team also won the 2023 Pulitzer Prize for Public Service for its Mariupol reporting, per the official film site.

FRONTLINE says the three journalists were the last international reporters in Mariupol and left in mid-March 2022, roughly three weeks after the invasion began, carrying 30 hours of footage. We reviewed the video’s published title and the FRONTLINE and AP descriptions of it; the film itself is Chernov’s firsthand account, and the casualty figures in this report come from the independent sources cited below, not from the film.

Timeline of the Mariupol siege

• Feb. 24, 2022: Russia’s full-scale invasion begins; its forces attack Ukrainian positions defending Mariupol, according to Human Rights Watch.
• March 9: A hospital’s maternity and pediatric units are bombed. HRW found at least three people killed, including a pregnant woman and her baby, who was stillborn, and 17 injured. Chernov and Maloletka documented the aftermath.
• March 13: A residential building is struck; HRW documented eight civilians killed and three injured.
• March 16: The Donetsk Academic Regional Drama Theater, where at least 500 people were sheltering, according to HRW, is destroyed. Estimates of the dead differ widely (see below).
• Mid-March: Tens of thousands of residents begin leaving at great personal risk, HRW said; the AP team also leaves the city.
• May 16-20: Ukrainian fighters holed up in the Azovstal steel plant surrender. On May 20, Russia claimed full control of the city; AP reported that over 20,000 civilians were feared dead and that Russia said 2,439 Ukrainian fighters had surrendered since that Monday.

Why the death toll estimates differ

Direct verification. The UN human rights office had verified 1,348 civilian deaths in Mariupol as of its June 2022 update, 70 of them children, from air strikes, tank and artillery shelling and small arms fire. It said the actual toll was “likely thousands higher” and that Mariupol was likely the deadliest place in Ukraine between February and the end of April.

Burial analysis. HRW, Truth Hounds and SITU Research counted new graves in satellite imagery. They estimated at least 10,284 new burials between March 2022 and February 2023 and concluded that more than 8,000 people would not have died without the attack. HRW cautioned that this is “likely a significant underestimation” and that it could not say how many of the dead were civilians. Reuters described it as one of the only independent estimates.

Ukrainian officials. Mayor Vadym Boychenko said in late April 2022 that more than 20,000 residents had died, according to Interfax-Ukraine. Mayor’s adviser Petro Andriushchenko put it at least 22,000 on May 25, and the Mariupol City Council said it could rise significantly, Ukrainska Pravda reported. Ombudsperson Lyudmyla Denisova cited at least 25,000. These are official estimates made while the city was under Russian control; we found no independent verification of them.

AP’s graves analysis. AP found at least 10,300 new graves in and around Mariupol by analyzing satellite imagery and said the death toll might run three times higher than the early estimate of at least 25,000.

The theater strike: a case of conflicting counts

City officials initially estimated about 300 dead at the theater. An AP investigation based on accounts from 23 survivors, rescuers and others found evidence of close to 600 dead. Amnesty International believed at least a dozen were killed and likely many more, noting many people had left in the prior two days. HRW said at least 15 were killed and the total has not been determined. Amnesty and HRW each concluded the attack was likely a war crime; HRW’s finding was that it appeared deliberate. For wider context, see our report on what the UN, ICC and OSCE have documented.

What is confirmed and what is not

Confirmed by independent bodies

• At least 1,348 civilians were individually verified as killed by the UN human rights office, with the true figure higher.
• More than 10,000 people were buried in Mariupol between March 2022 and February 2023, per HRW’s analysis, and AP counted more than 10,300 new graves.
• HRW found 93 percent of 477 high-rise apartment buildings in the city center damaged, 86 of 89 schools and universities damaged, and all 19 hospital campuses damaged.

Not known

• The total number killed. HRW says it “may never be known” while the city remains under Russian occupation and evidence is being erased.
• How many of the dead were civilians versus combatants. HRW says it could not determine this.
• Verified totals for injured and missing people.
• Russia’s response: HRW said it sent the Russian government its findings in December 2023 and had received no reply as of Feb. 1, 2024. We did not find a Russian government casualty figure from an independent source to compare.

Reactions

HRW’s Ida Sawyer said the devastation of Mariupol “stands out as one of the worst chapters” of Russia’s full-scale invasion and urged investigators to focus on senior Russian officials. Amnesty Secretary General Agnès Callamard said the theater strike was “a clear war crime.” The nonprofits’ findings are their own conclusions; they have not been adjudicated in court. For related coverage see our warfare and world affairs sections, and our report on the ICC and new US sanctions.

Frequently asked questions

How many people died in the siege of Mariupol?

No verified total exists. The UN verified 1,348 civilian deaths by June 2022; HRW estimates at least 8,000 war-related deaths; Ukrainian officials said 22,000 to 25,000 or more; AP said the toll could be three times 25,000.

When did the siege take place?

The assault began Feb. 24, 2022, and Russia claimed full control on May 20, 2022.

Who made “20 Days in Mariupol”?

PBS FRONTLINE and The Associated Press, directed by AP journalist Mstyslav Chernov.

Key takeaways

• The Mariupol death toll is disputed: 1,348 verified, 8,000+ (HRW), 22,000-25,000+ (Ukrainian officials).
• The period at issue is Feb. 24 to May 20, 2022.
• Independent researchers say all estimates are likely undercounts because evidence is inaccessible.
• The documentary is a firsthand journalistic record, not a casualty count.

Sources

1. “20 Days in Mariupol” (full documentary), FRONTLINE PBS | Official, YouTube, with AP
2. FRONTLINE (PBS): “20 Days in Mariupol”: Where to watch
3. AP: “20 Days in Mariupol” wins Oscar for best documentary
4. Human Rights Watch: New Findings on Russia’s Devastation of Mariupol (Feb. 8, 2024)
5. Reuters: More than 8,000 killed during 2022 Mariupol siege (Feb. 8, 2024)
6. UN OHCHR: High Commissioner updates Human Rights Council on Mariupol (June 2022, archived)
7. AP: Russia claims to have taken full control of Mariupol
8. AP: Russia scrubs Mariupol’s Ukraine identity, builds on death
9. Interfax-Ukraine: At least 22,000 civilians killed in Mariupol, mayor’s adviser (May 25, 2022)
10. Ukrainska Pravda: Mariupol City Council on burials (May 30, 2022)
11. LB.ua: Denisova: at least 25,000 died in Mariupol (May 16, 2022)
12. AP: Evidence points to 600 dead in Mariupol theater airstrike
13. Amnesty International: Deadly Mariupol theatre strike “a clear war crime” (June 2022)