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US Economy Tracker: Consumer Spending, GDP, Inflation and Jobs

The Boston Report · Live tracker

By · Updated
Real consumer spending, 12 mo.▲ +2.5%September 2026, BEA
Retail sales, monthly▲ +0.8%September 2026, Census
GDPNow, Q4 2026▼ 3.2%Atlanta Fed, Oct. 29, 2026; vs. 3.4% in the last official GDP
CPI inflation, 12 mo.▲ 3.7%September 2026, BLS
Unemployment rate▲ 4.2%September 2026, BLS
Consumer sentiment▬ 48.0U. of Michigan, October 2026 final

Next major release: Trade balance (with BEA) (September 2026), Nov. 4, 2026, 8:30 AM ET.

Key numbers at a glance

▲▼ Green: a favorable change ▲▼ Red: an unfavorable change ▬ Gray: flat, or no clear good or bad direction (rates, yields, debt levels)

Real consumer spending (PCE)
$16.98 tn
▬ 0.0% vs. prior month · +2.5% vs. a year earlierAs of September 2026. Chained 2017 dollars, annual rate. Source: BEA via FRED PCEC96
Retail and food services sales
$745.0 bn
▲ +0.8% vs. prior month · +6.3% vs. a year earlierAs of September 2026 (advance). Not adjusted for inflation. Source: Census via FRED RSAFS
Retail “control group”
$400.2 bn
▲ +0.1% vs. prior month · +4.6% vs. a year earlierAs of September 2026 (advance). Excludes autos, gasoline, building materials and food services. Source: Census advance report, Table 1; calculated by The Boston Report
Personal saving rate
3.8%
▼ −0.2 pt vs. prior month (4.0%)As of September 2026. Source: BEA via FRED PSAVERT
Real GDP growth
3.4%
▲ +1.2 pt vs. prior quarter (2.2%)As of Q3 2026. Quarterly change, annual rate. Source: BEA via FRED A191RL1Q225SBEA
PCE inflation, 12 months
3.6%
▲ +0.2 pt vs. prior month; core 3.1%As of September 2026. Fed’s 2% goal uses this gauge. Source: BEA via FRED PCEPI, FRED PCEPILFE
Unemployment rate
4.2%
▲ +0.1 pt vs. prior monthAs of September 2026. Source: BLS via FRED UNRATE
10-year Treasury yield
4.98%
▲ +0.87 pt vs. a year earlierAs of Oct. 29, 2026. Source: Federal Reserve H.15 via FRED DGS10

Each card shows the latest reading, the period it covers, the change from the prior period and, where available, a trend line of about three years. Arrows show direction only, not whether a change is good or bad. Figures come from the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), the Census Bureau, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), the Federal Reserve and the New York Fed, mostly through FRED at the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.

About this trackerWhat it covers, how it is built · page last updated Oct. 29, 2026

This US economy tracker follows how American households are spending, saving and borrowing, along with the main measures of growth, inflation, jobs, housing and interest rates. Consumer spending makes up about two-thirds of U.S. GDP, according to the BEA, so the page leads with it.

Every number comes from an official release or from FRED, which republishes official data. Each card names its source and the period it covers. Values for the University of Michigan and Conference Board surveys, the New York Fed household debt report and the Atlanta Fed GDPNow model come from those organizations’ own releases. The retail sales control group is calculated by The Boston Report from the Census Bureau’s advance report. Page last updated Oct. 29, 2026. For interest rates and Fed meetings, see our Federal Reserve tracker.

Consumer spending and income

Real consumer spending (PCE)
$16.98 tn
▬ 0.0% vs. prior month · +2.5% vs. a year earlierAs of September 2026. Chained 2017 dollars, annual rate. Source: BEA via FRED PCEC96
Consumer spending, current dollars
$22.45 tn
▲ +0.5% vs. prior month · +6.3% vs. a year earlierAs of September 2026. Seasonally adjusted annual rate. Source: BEA via FRED PCE
Real disposable income
$18.37 tn
▼ −0.3% vs. prior month · +1.0% vs. a year earlierAs of September 2026. Chained 2017 dollars, annual rate. Source: BEA via FRED DSPIC96
Personal saving rate
3.8%
▼ −0.2 pt vs. prior month (4.0%)As of September 2026. Source: BEA via FRED PSAVERT

Personal consumption expenditures (PCE) are the BEA’s measure of what households spend on goods and services. The real figure removes price changes. Real disposable income is after-tax income adjusted for inflation; when spending grows faster than income, the saving rate falls. The October figures are due from the BEA on Nov. 25, 2026.

Real consumer spending vs. real disposable income

Real consumer spending and real disposable income, percent change from a year earlier-20%0%20%2.5%1.0%20192020202120222023202420252026Real PCEReal disposable incomeRecession (NBER)
What it shows: Year-over-year growth in inflation-adjusted spending and after-tax income. The 2020 swings reflect the pandemic shutdowns and federal relief payments. Shaded areas are recessions dated by the NBER (FRED USREC). Source: BEA via FRED PCEC96, FRED DSPIC96; chart by The Boston Report.

Personal saving rate

Personal saving rate10%20%30%3.8%20192020202120222023202420252026Saving rateRecession (NBER)
What it shows: The share of after-tax income households did not spend. It spiked in 2020 and 2021 when relief payments arrived and spending fell. Shaded areas are recessions dated by the NBER (FRED USREC). Source: BEA via FRED PSAVERT; chart by The Boston Report.

Consumer mood

Consumer sentiment (U. of Michigan)
48.0
▬ −0.1 vs. prior month · −5.6 vs. a year earlierAs of October 2026 (final). Index, 1966=100. Source: University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers
Consumer confidence (Conference Board)
91.7
▲ +7.5 vs. prior month (84.2)As of October 2026 (preliminary). Index, 1985=100. Source: The Conference Board

The two surveys ask different questions and use different samples, so their levels are not comparable. The Conference Board index leans more on job-market views; the University of Michigan index leans more on personal finances and buying conditions.

Retail sales

Retail and food services sales
$745.0 bn
▲ +0.8% vs. prior month · +6.3% vs. a year earlierAs of September 2026 (advance). Not adjusted for inflation. Source: Census via FRED RSAFS
Retail sales excluding autos
$605.2 bn
▲ +0.9% vs. prior month · +7.2% vs. a year earlierAs of September 2026 (advance). Source: Census via FRED RSFSXMV
Retail “control group”
$400.2 bn
▲ +0.1% vs. prior month · +4.6% vs. a year earlierAs of September 2026 (advance). Excludes autos, gasoline, building materials and food services. Source: Census advance report, Table 1; calculated by The Boston Report
E-commerce share of retail sales
17.1%
▲ +0.1 pt vs. prior quarterAs of Q2 2026. Quarterly. Source: Census via FRED ECOMPCTSA

The Census Bureau’s advance retail sales report is the first monthly read on consumer spending. The figures are in current dollars and are not adjusted for inflation, so higher prices, including at gas stations, raise them. The October report is due Nov. 17, 2026.

Retail sales growth, 12 months

Retail sales, percent change from a year earlier-20%0%20%40%6.3%7.2%20192020202120222023202420252026Total retail and food servicesExcluding autosRecession (NBER)
What it shows: Year-over-year change in retail and food services sales, in current dollars, with and without auto dealers. Shaded areas are recessions dated by the NBER (FRED USREC). Source: Census Bureau via FRED RSAFS, FRED RSFSXMV; chart by The Boston Report.

Consumer credit and household debt

Consumer credit outstanding
$5.20 tn
▲ +1.9% annual rate vs. prior month; revolving −4.2%As of August 2026. Excludes mortgages. Source: Federal Reserve G.19; FRED TOTALSL
Total household debt
$18.77 tn
▼ −13 bn vs. prior quarter · +383 bn vs. a year earlierAs of Q2 2026. Includes mortgages. Credit card balances $1.26 tn. Source: New York Fed
Credit card delinquency rate, banks
2.85%
▼ −0.06 pt vs. prior quarterAs of Q2 2026. Share of card balances 30+ days past due, commercial banks, seasonally adjusted. Source: Federal Reserve via FRED DRCCLACBS
Card balances moving to serious delinquency
6.97%
▲ +0.04 pt vs. a year earlierAs of Q2 2026. Annualized share of card balances newly 90+ days late. Source: New York Fed

The Federal Reserve’s G.19 release covers credit cards, auto loans and student loans but not mortgages. The New York Fed’s quarterly report, based on Equifax credit records, covers all household debt including mortgages. The bank delinquency rate is the share of card balances at commercial banks 30 days or more past due.

Growth

Real GDP growth
3.4%
▲ +1.2 pt vs. prior quarter (2.2%)As of Q3 2026. Quarterly change, annual rate. Source: BEA via FRED A191RL1Q225SBEA
GDPNow estimate, Q4 2026
3.2%
▬ Model nowcast, not an official forecastAs of updated Oct. 29, 2026. Source: Atlanta Fed GDPNow
Industrial production
104.0
▲ +0.7% vs. prior month · +2.2% vs. a year earlierAs of September 2026. Index, 2017=100. Source: Federal Reserve via FRED INDPRO
Durable goods orders
$345.4 bn
▲ +1.8% vs. prior monthAs of September 2026 (advance). Source: Census via FRED DGORDER

Real GDP growth is the BEA’s quarterly change in inflation-adjusted output, at an annual rate. The BEA’s second estimate for the third quarter is due Nov. 25, 2026. GDPNow is the Atlanta Fed’s running model estimate for the current quarter.

Inflation

CPI inflation, 12 months
3.7%
▲ +0.3 pt vs. prior month; core 2.6%As of September 2026. Source: BLS
PCE inflation, 12 months
3.6%
▲ +0.2 pt vs. prior month; core 3.1%As of September 2026. Fed’s 2% goal uses this gauge. Source: BEA via FRED PCEPI, FRED PCEPILFE

CPI and PCE inflation vs. the 2% goal

CPI and PCE inflation, 12 months0%2%4%6%8%2% goal3.7%3.6%20192020202120222023202420252026CPIPCERecession (NBER)
What it shows: Twelve-month change in the two main consumer price measures. The gold line is the Federal Reserve’s 2% goal, which is defined using PCE prices. Shaded areas are recessions dated by the NBER (FRED USREC). Source: BLS and BEA via FRED CPIAUCSL, FRED PCEPI; chart by The Boston Report.

The CPI card uses the BLS headline 12-month figure, which is not seasonally adjusted. The chart uses the seasonally adjusted index, so its latest point can differ slightly.

Jobs

Unemployment rate
4.2%
▲ +0.1 pt vs. prior monthAs of September 2026. Source: BLS via FRED UNRATE
Nonfarm payrolls, monthly change
+29k
▼ vs. +133k the prior monthAs of September 2026. Source: BLS via FRED PAYEMS
Initial jobless claims
194k
▼ −1k vs. prior weekAs of week ending Oct. 24, 2026. Source: Labor Dept. via FRED ICSA

Housing, trade and industry

Housing starts
1.221 mn
▼ −5.2% vs. prior monthAs of September 2026. Annual rate. Source: Census via FRED HOUST
New home sales
676k
▼ −0.6% vs. prior monthAs of September 2026. Single-family, annual rate. Source: Census via FRED HSN1F
Trade balance, goods and services
−$105.6 bn
▼ deficit widened by $12.7 bnAs of August 2026. Source: Census/BEA via FRED BOPGSTB
Industrial production
104.0
▲ +0.7% vs. prior month · +2.2% vs. a year earlierAs of September 2026. Index, 2017=100. Source: Federal Reserve via FRED INDPRO

Housing starts and new home sales

Housing starts and new home sales, thousands, annual rate5007501,0001,2501,5001,7501,22167620192020202120222023202420252026Housing startsNew home salesRecession (NBER)
What it shows: New residential construction and sales of new single-family homes, both at seasonally adjusted annual rates. Shaded areas are recessions dated by the NBER (FRED USREC). Source: Census Bureau via FRED HOUST, FRED HSN1F; chart by The Boston Report.

Interest rates

10-year Treasury yield
4.98%
▲ +0.87 pt vs. a year earlierAs of Oct. 29, 2026. Source: Federal Reserve H.15 via FRED DGS10
Effective fed funds rate
3.88%
▬ +0.01 pt vs. a year earlierAs of Oct. 29, 2026. Source: Federal Reserve via FRED DFF

10-year Treasury yield and fed funds rate

10-year Treasury yield and effective fed funds rate0%2%4%5.1%3.9%2019202020212022202320242025202610-year yieldFed fundsRecession (NBER)
What it shows: Monthly averages. The fed funds rate is set by Federal Reserve policy; the 10-year yield drives mortgage and other long-term borrowing costs. Shaded areas are recessions dated by the NBER (FRED USREC). Source: Federal Reserve via FRED DGS10, FRED DFF; chart by The Boston Report.

Follow Fed decisions, the meeting calendar and the dot plot on our Federal Reserve tracker.

Upcoming economic releases

DateReleasePeriodAgency
Nov. 4, 2026
8:30 AM ET		Trade balance (with BEA)September 2026Census
Nov. 6, 2026
8:30 AM ET		Employment Situation (jobs report)October 2026BLS
Nov. 10, 2026
8:30 AM ET		Consumer Price IndexOctober 2026BLS
Nov. 17, 2026Industrial production (G.17)October 2026Federal Reserve
Nov. 17, 2026
8:30 AM ET		Advance retail salesOctober 2026Census
Nov. 18, 2026
8:30 AM ET		Housing startsOctober 2026Census
Nov. 24, 2026
10:00 AM ET		Consumer Confidence IndexNovember 2026Conference Board
Nov. 25, 2026
10:00 AM ET		New home salesOctober 2026Census
Nov. 25, 2026
8:30 AM ET		Durable goods ordersOctober 2026Census
Nov. 25, 2026
8:30 AM ET		GDP, second estimateQ3 2026BEA
Nov. 25, 2026
8:30 AM ET		Personal income and outlays (PCE, saving rate)October 2026BEA
Dec. 8, 2026
8:30 AM ET		Trade balance (with BEA)October 2026Census
Dec. 16, 2026
8:30 AM ET		Advance retail salesNovember 2026Census
Dec. 17, 2026
8:30 AM ET		Housing startsNovember 2026Census
Dec. 23, 2026
10:00 AM ET		New home salesNovember 2026Census
Dec. 23, 2026
8:30 AM ET		Durable goods ordersNovember 2026Census
Dec. 23, 2026
8:30 AM ET		GDP, third estimateQ3 2026BEA
Dec. 23, 2026
8:30 AM ET		Personal income and outlays (PCE, saving rate)November 2026BEA

Times are Eastern. Weekly jobless claims are published by the Labor Department every Thursday at 8:30 a.m. ET. Schedules are set by each agency and can change; see the Census, BEA and BLS calendars.

US economy tracker FAQ

What does this U.S. economy tracker measure?

It tracks consumer spending (personal consumption expenditures, retail sales, the saving rate, disposable income, sentiment, credit and household debt) and the main economic indicators: GDP, inflation, jobs, jobless claims, industrial production, housing, durable goods orders, the trade balance and interest rates.

How is consumer spending doing right now?

Real personal consumption expenditures were $16.98 tn at an annual rate in September 2026, 0.0% vs. prior month. Retail and food services sales were $745.0 bn in September 2026 (advance), +0.8% vs. prior month, according to the Census Bureau.

What is the retail sales control group?

It is total retail sales minus autos, gasoline stations, building materials and food services. The Bureau of Economic Analysis uses similar retail data to estimate consumer spending on goods, so analysts watch it closely. The Census Bureau does not publish it as a single line; this tracker calculates it from the Census advance report.

What is the personal saving rate?

It is personal saving as a share of disposable personal income, published monthly by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. It was 3.8% in September 2026.

What is the difference between CPI and PCE inflation?

The Consumer Price Index from the Bureau of Labor Statistics measures prices paid by urban consumers. The PCE price index from the Bureau of Economic Analysis covers a broader set of spending and is the measure behind the Federal Reserve’s 2% goal. CPI inflation was 3.7% in September 2026; PCE inflation was 3.6% in September 2026.

What is GDPNow?

GDPNow is a model run by the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta that estimates real GDP growth for the current quarter before the official figure is released. The Atlanta Fed says it is not an official forecast. Its Q4 2026 estimate was 3.2% on Oct. 29, 2026.

How often is this page updated?

The data refresh after each major release from the Census Bureau, BEA, BLS and the Federal Reserve. Each card shows the period it covers and links to its source. The date at the top shows when the page was last refreshed.

Sources

Additional sources

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