The Federal Reserve opens a two-day policy meeting in Washington on Tuesday, Oct. 27, 2026, with inflation running at 3.7% and markets betting that Chair Kevin Warsh and the Federal Open Market Committee will hold interest rates steady rather than raise them again. The decision is scheduled for 2 p.m. ET on Wednesday, Oct. 28, followed by Warsh’s press conference at 2:30 p.m., according to the Federal Reserve’s October calendar.
Fed Meeting: Key Numbers
- 3.75%–4.00%: current federal funds target range, set Sept. 16
- 12–0: committee vote for the September quarter-point hike
- 3.7%: consumer price inflation, 12 months to September (BLS)
- 20.4%: rise in the CPI energy index over the same 12 months
- 10.5%: CME FedWatch odds of an October hike as of Monday afternoon
- Wed., Oct. 28, 2 p.m. ET: rate decision; press conference 2:30 p.m.
Where Interest Rates Stand Before the Fed Decision
At its last meeting on Sept. 16, the committee voted 12–0 to raise the target range for the federal funds rate by a quarter percentage point to 3.75% to 4%, according to the Fed’s September statement. The statement said economic activity “is expanding at a solid pace,” that domestic spending “has been resilient” and that “Inflation remains elevated.” It added: “The Committee will deliver price stability.”
InvestmentNews reported that the September move was the Fed’s first rate increase since July 2023. The October gathering is one of eight regularly scheduled FOMC meetings this year, and it is not one of the meetings paired with a Summary of Economic Projections, according to the Fed’s meeting calendar. The next meeting is set for Dec. 8–9.
Inflation Data: Energy Drives the Increase
The most recent consumer price figures show why the Fed’s decision is being closely watched. The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers rose 0.6% on a seasonally adjusted basis in September after a 0.4% gain in August, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported. Over 12 months, prices rose 3.7%, up from 3.4% in the 12 months ending in August.
Energy accounted for much of the jump. The BLS energy index climbed 20.4% over the year. Excluding food and energy, the core index rose 2.6%, compared with 2.4% a month earlier. Food prices rose 2.5% over the year. The Fed’s stated long-run inflation goal is 2%.
What Markets Expect From Warsh
Futures traders see a pause as the likely outcome. As of Monday afternoon, CME Group’s FedWatch tool put the odds of a quarter-point hike this week at 10.5%, down from 33.8% on Oct. 14, InvestmentNews reported. The same tool implied odds of more than 80% for at least one increase by the end of the year.
Investing.com, citing a Reuters poll, reported that 94 of 100 economists surveyed expect the Fed to hold this week, and all 100 expect a hike in December. It also put the 10-year Treasury yield at 4.963% as of Monday.
Some analysts have warned against treating the outcome as settled. CNBC noted in an Oct. 16 analysis that Warsh has rejected traditional forward guidance, the practice of signaling decisions to markets in advance. Warsh said at an International Monetary Fund event in Bangkok that he was not signaling a decision one way or the other, according to CNBC.
Possible Dissents and the Data Still to Come
A unanimous vote is not assured. BMO chief U.S. economist Scott Anderson said he expects at least one dissent, from Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack, according to a preview published by SEE News. That outlet also cited a Semafor report that TD Securities analysts predicted three dissents from a hold. These are analyst forecasts, not outcomes.
Two major reports arrive one day after the decision. The Bureau of Economic Analysis is scheduled to release September personal income and outlays, which includes the Personal Consumption Expenditures price index the Fed prefers, along with the advance estimate of third-quarter gross domestic product, on Thursday, Oct. 29, at 8:30 a.m. ET, according to the same preview.
Why the Fed Meeting Matters to Households
The federal funds rate is the benchmark for overnight lending between banks, and changes to it flow through to rates on credit cards, home equity lines and many business loans. A hold would leave the range at 3.75% to 4% through at least the December meeting. The meeting also falls six days before the Nov. 3 midterm elections.
In New England, the Boston Fed’s latest Beige Book described regional activity as growing slightly; see our Beige Book coverage for New England. For more on markets heading into the week, read our Oct. 26 Business Report and the latest Massachusetts jobs report.
The Boston Report will update this story after the Fed’s statement is released Wednesday afternoon.
Sources
- Federal Reserve: FOMC statement, Sept. 16, 2026
- Federal Reserve Board: Calendar, October 2026
- Federal Reserve: Meeting calendars and information
- U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics: Consumer Price Index, September 2026
Additional sources
- InvestmentNews: Fed likely to hold this week, but December hike odds top 70%
- Investing.com: Fed meeting on tap
- CNBC: Markets expect the Fed to hold rates in October
- SEE News: Fed decision preview
Featured image: Marriner S. Eccles Federal Reserve Board Building, Washington, D.C. Photo by AgnosticPreachersKid via Wikimedia Commons, CC BY-SA 3.0, cropped.
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