Possible Iran Strike: Signs to Watch

Signs of possible renewed U.S. military action against Iran have stacked up over the past week. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth made an unannounced trip to Israel on Oct. 19, 2026. On Oct. 23 and 24, President Donald Trump said publicly that a strike could come “maybe tomorrow.” Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) answered with warnings of a much larger response. None of these signals is an order to attack. This report sets out what has been confirmed, who said it and when, and what is still unknown.

Hegseth’s unannounced visit to Israel

Hegseth met Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on Monday, Oct. 19, at the Ovda (Uvda) Air Force base in Israel’s southern Negev desert, Reuters reported, citing three Israeli officials. Axios first reported the trip. Netanyahu spokesperson Doron Spielman told Reuters the two discussed “the threats in the region” and the U.S.-Israel partnership in dealing with them “both offensively and defensively.” Spielman said Hegseth thanked Israel for hosting U.S. forces, which he put in the thousands.

Hegseth confirmed the visit to reporters on Oct. 20. “I was there visiting our troops, (and) had a chance to talk to the prime minister. Of course, the nature of our conversation is not something I would talk about,” he said, according to Reuters. The Pentagon declined to comment, CBS News reported. The meeting took place about a week before Israel’s Oct. 27 national election.

What Trump has said about Iran

Trump has given mixed signals in the same week. On Wednesday, Oct. 21, he told reporters the United States was no longer negotiating with Tehran and said, “We are going to have something one way or the other that’ll happen fairly soon,” Al Jazeera reported.

On Friday, Oct. 23, leaving the White House for a Florida rally, he said, “We could end it very quickly … The question is, ‘Do we want to finish it off or do we just want to let it wither?'” At the rally that night he said, “We may do another little Epic Fury,” Reuters reported. Epic Fury is the U.S. military’s name for the campaign it launched with Israel on Feb. 28. NDTV quoted the fuller line: “We may do another little Epic Fury, or they’ll agree.”

On Saturday, Oct. 24, asked how far along he was in weighing an attack, Trump said, “We’re thinking about doing it, and maybe tomorrow,” and added, “Do you really think I’m going to tell you if I’m going to do it?” He also said, “I may have to finish it off, or maybe they’ll make a deal,” Anadolu Agency reported. Earlier in October, Trump said the U.S. would not attack Iran before the Nov. 3 midterm elections, according to Reuters.

Separately, Tom Barrack, the U.S. ambassador to Turkey, said in a podcast interview that circulated Oct. 23: “Could there be a strike this weekend? Absolutely.” Trump responded that if so, “I don’t know anything about it.”

What the IRGC and Iranian officials have said

On Oct. 21, IRGC spokesman Brig. Gen. Hossein Mohebbi announced what he called an “offensive” doctrine: “Now we say that if a country attacks us, we will both respond and launch an offensive.” He said the missile stockpile had grown 1.5 times since June 2025, without giving figures, according to Al Jazeera. That count is an unverified IRGC claim.

On Oct. 24, Mohebbi said that “even if the enemy makes a limited move, Iran’s response will be several times greater,” as reported by the IRGC-affiliated Fars news agency Unverified claim, Fars (IRGC-affiliated). He also described the conflict as an “apocalyptic war” that would “decide the fate” of other nations in the region, according to Press TV Unverified claim, Press TV (Iranian state media). The same day, armed forces chief of staff Ali Abdollahi said U.S. forces would never again enter the Persian Gulf, in a statement carried by state media and reported by Al Jazeera.

Two senior Iranian security officials told Reuters that Iran has drawn up plans to target undersea communications cables in the Gulf if attacked again. One said, “If Iran is attacked, there will be no more red lines.” Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said Iran was prepared for both diplomacy and war, NPR reported.

Military planning, force movements and diplomats

The New York Times reported on Oct. 21, citing unnamed U.S. officials, that the U.S. and Israeli militaries have drawn up plans for a “short but intensive” operation after the midterms, CNBC reported. The Hill reported that Central Command has follow-up strike options ready if the White House authorizes them. Al Jazeera noted that such preparations “do not amount to an order to attack.” The aircraft carrier USS Theodore Roosevelt is headed to the region as a third carrier and was about a week out as of Oct. 23, according to NPR. You can follow carrier positions on our Military Deployments Tracker.

The State Department ordered non-emergency staff and families out of Saudi Arabia. Spokesman Tommy Pigott cited rising Houthi attacks, which we covered here. Director of National Intelligence Jay Clayton wrote in a memo to Secretary of State Marco Rubio that Iran had “substantially increased efforts to target US personnel,” Al Jazeera reported.

Israel has its own timing factor. Netanyahu told Israeli media this month he was not planning strikes before the Oct. 27 vote, saying “it is not convenient for us,” according to CBS News.

Oil markets react

Brent crude passed $117 a barrel on Oct. 23, its highest level since April, The Guardian reported. Brent settled at $116.72 and West Texas Intermediate at $103.38 that day. Our Strait of Hormuz coverage tracks the tanker attacks behind the rally.

Signs to watch

Signal	Status (Oct. 25)	Source
Hegseth-Netanyahu meeting at Ovda base	Confirmed, Oct. 19	Reuters, CBS
Trump: strike “maybe tomorrow”	On record, Oct. 24	Anadolu
Joint U.S.-Israel post-midterm strike plans	Reported, anonymous officials	New York Times via CNBC
Third carrier, USS Theodore Roosevelt	En route	NPR
Saudi Arabia ordered departure	Confirmed	State Department via CNBC
IRGC “several times greater” response threat	Statement only	Fars
Brent above $117	Confirmed, Oct. 23	The Guardian

What is not confirmed

No public order to strike Iran has been reported. Trump has not announced a decision.
The content of the Hegseth-Netanyahu talks is known only through Netanyahu’s spokesperson. Hegseth declined to describe it.
The strike planning reports rely on unnamed officials. The Pentagon has not confirmed them.
Barrack has no direct role in Iran policy, and Trump said he knew nothing about a weekend strike.
Iranian claims about missile stocks and new weapons have not been independently verified.

For running casualty, strike and shipping figures, see the Iran War Tracker and our latest Iran war update.

Sources

Additional sources

Featured image: Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth hosts Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu at the Pentagon, July 9, 2025. U.S. Department of Defense photo via Wikimedia Commons, public domain.

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Iran Strike Signs: Hegseth in Israel, Trump’s ‘Maybe Tomorrow’, IRGC Threats