Iran War Update: What Each Side Says

This is The Boston Report’s updated Iran war piece as of Sunday, Oct. 25, 2026. It follows our Oct. 23 report on U.S. and Israeli strike planning and our Oct. 19 Iran–U.S. war update.

Leaders on both sides of the U.S.-Israeli war with Iran issued new warnings this weekend. President Donald Trump said on Friday, Oct. 23, that the United States “may do another little Epic Fury.” Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi answered on Sunday, Oct. 25, that a new round of fighting would not change Iran’s policies. The exchange comes days before Israel votes on Tuesday, Oct. 27, and the U.S. holds midterm elections on Nov. 3.

Where the war stands

The war began on Feb. 28, 2026, when U.S. and Israeli strikes opened what Washington code-named Operation Epic Fury. An April 8 ceasefire ended the most intense fighting, AFP reported via Dawn. In June the two governments agreed to the Pakistan-brokered Islamabad Memorandum of Understanding, which set out a path to a permanent settlement. That deal later unraveled, and each side accused the other of violating it.

Since then, the conflict has largely been fought at sea. Iran says it controls the Strait of Hormuz and has targeted ships crossing without its permission. The U.S. Navy maintains a counter-blockade of Iranian ports. The Pentagon has confirmed that 21 U.S. service members have been killed in the Middle East since the war began, Al Jazeera reported. NPR reported that recent U.S. government damage assessments say Iranian strikes hit 81 aircraft and more than a dozen U.S. military bases. Brent crude reached about $117 a barrel this week, its highest level since April, as tanker attacks continued (our Hormuz and oil coverage).

The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) said seven tankers were attacked or struck mines overnight into Thursday, Oct. 22, and that two supertankers hit mines on Friday Unverified claim, IRGC statements (IRGC). Trump disputed the claim, saying it was an attempt to drive up oil prices, NPR reported. Independent confirmation of the full count was not available at publication.

What Washington is saying

The White House. Speaking to reporters on the South Lawn on Friday, Trump said, “We could end it very quickly,” then asked, “Do we want to finish it off or just want to let it wither?” He added that oil was moving through Hormuz and “we are getting everything we want,” Reuters reported. At a Florida rally the same night, he said the military “may do another little Epic Fury.”

Intelligence and the State Department. In a declassified memo dated Oct. 23 and addressed to Secretary of State Marco Rubio, Director of National Intelligence Jay Clayton wrote that “Iran has substantially increased efforts to target U.S. personnel” and that “lethal plotting efforts by Iranians against U.S. citizens have reached advanced stages in both the Middle East and certain other countries,” The Hill reported. The State Department is reducing staffing at four U.S. embassies in the region in response, the Associated Press reported.

The Pentagon. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth met Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in Israel this week, and the U.S. is sending a third aircraft carrier to the region, NPR reported. The New York Times, citing U.S. officials, reported on Oct. 21 that the two militaries have drawn up plans for a short, intensive operation after the midterms. Possible targets include Iran’s energy infrastructure, nuclear facilities and missile and drone arsenal. The Pentagon has not publicly confirmed those plans.

What Israel is saying

At an election rally in Dimona on Oct. 21, Netanyahu said: “Iran wanted to destroy us; we stopped them. They wanted to produce nuclear bombs; we stopped them … Yet they persist. Therefore, there is only one way to end this: by toppling this regime.” He said that was “the directive I have issued to the Israel Defense Forces, to the Mossad, and to all our security branches.” He also said he would brief Trump on Israel’s plans but “will not ask him for the green light to strike Iran.”

In a campaign video on Saturday, Netanyahu said, “Iran has restarted its nuclear program, and it wants to destroy us within a short time,” Ynet reported. That claim has not been independently verified. Netanyahu called a Financial Times report that Trump had stopped a planned Israeli strike around Oct. 10 “incorrect.” Defense Minister Israel Katz said the Iranian government “is at its weakest point ever” and warned, “If Iran attacks Israel, Iran will burn!”

What Tehran is saying

The foreign minister. At a televised event in Tehran on Sunday, Araghchi said: “Recently, there has been talk of a new war, but I am already thinking about the post-war period. Whether there is war or not, our policies remain the same.” He added, “If they want to try again, they know they will achieve no different outcome.” He said “the management of the strait will no longer be the same” and that “our region must move towards the complete absence of foreign forces,” AFP reported. He also said any end to the war must cover all fronts, a position Tehran has tied to Lebanon in the past.

The president. President Masoud Pezeshkian blamed Washington for the collapse of the interim deal but urged a return to it. “We were having negotiations, the cowards messed everything up. I still think we should go and conclude it,” he said in remarks on state television, according to Reuters Claim by Press TV / IRIB (Iranian state media); confirmed by Reuters. An Iranian envoy told the AP that Iran remains open to talks with the U.S. under the Pakistan-brokered framework.

The military and the IRGC. Armed forces chief of staff Ali Abdollahi said in a statement carried by state media that “the US president can only dream of their soldiers and military again entering the Persian Gulf. They will take this wish to the grave” Unverified claim, Iranian state media (state-run). The IRGC warned that even limited strikes would trigger a response “several times greater,” the semi-official Fars News Agency reported Unverified claim, Fars (IRGC-affiliated). IRGC spokesman Hossein Mohebbi said on Wednesday, Oct. 21, that Iran would adopt an “offensive” strategy if attacked again. Two senior Iranian security officials told Reuters that Tehran has plans to target undersea communications cables in the Gulf if the war resumes.

The government and the Supreme Leader’s office. Government spokesperson Fatemeh Mohajerani said Tehran “seeks peace but will respond to any aggression with severe consequences,” Al Jazeera reported. Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei has not appeared in public since taking the post in early March. He met judiciary chief Gholamhossein Mohseni Ejei on Saturday to discuss corruption and compensation for Iranians affected by the war, Al Jazeera reported. No public statement from Khamenei on the threat of renewed strikes was found for this report. Nour News, which is affiliated with Iran’s Supreme National Security Council, argued that the U.S. and Europe must make concessions first and that reopening Hormuz depends on Washington accepting Tehran’s demands Unverified claim, Nour News (Iranian state-affiliated).

Diplomacy and what to watch

Foreign ministers from Turkey, Saudi Arabia, Pakistan, Egypt, the United Kingdom, France, Germany and Italy met in Istanbul on Friday without the U.S. or Iran. “Military intervention in Iran is by no means a solution,” Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan said afterward. The four regional states backed the Islamabad memorandum and called for unrestricted passage through Hormuz. The next markers are Israel’s Oct. 27 election, the Nov. 3 U.S. midterms and any move by either side on the stalled Pakistan-mediated talks. Follow ongoing figures on our Iran War Tracker and the Geopolitics hub.

Sources

Additional sources

Featured image: Ships of the Dwight D. Eisenhower Carrier Strike Group transit the Strait of Hormuz, Dec. 14, 2023. U.S. Navy photo by Mass Communication Specialist 3rd Class Janae Chambers, public domain, via Wikimedia Commons.

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Iran War Update: What Washington, Israel and Tehran Are Saying