Consumer Prices Rose 0.4% in October as Food Costs Jumped

The October CPI rose 0.4 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis after a 0.6 percent increase in September, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Tuesday. Food prices jumped 0.5 percent, energy increased 0.7 percent after a much larger September gain, and the index excluding food and energy rose 0.3 percent for a third straight month. The agency did not publish most 12-month inflation rates, saying it did not collect survey data in October 2025 because of a lapse in appropriations.

Food jumped, energy cooled, and shelter still led

The food index accounted for a clear change in the monthly picture. After being unchanged in September, food rose 0.5 percent in October, the bureau said. Groceries, measured as food at home, increased 0.4 percent. Four of the six major grocery-store food groups were up, including other food at home, which rose 0.7 percent as snacks increased 1.0 percent. The meats, poultry, fish, and eggs index rose 0.5 percent, with beef up 0.9 percent. Fruits and vegetables and dairy and related products each increased 0.6 percent. Nonalcoholic beverages fell 0.3 percent after a 0.9 percent rise in September, and cereals and bakery products were unchanged. Food away from home rose 0.5 percent, with full-service meals up 0.7 percent and limited-service meals up 0.4 percent.

Energy prices did not repeat September’s surge, but they were still higher. The energy index increased 0.7 percent after a 5.2 percent jump the month before. The gasoline index rose 1.0 percent seasonally adjusted after a 9.1 percent advance in September. Before seasonal adjustment, BLS said, the gasoline index decreased 0.7 percent in October. Electricity rose 0.9 percent, while the natural gas index fell 0.8 percent.

Shelter rose 0.3 percent and, the bureau said, accounted for over 30 percent of the monthly all-items increase. Owners’ equivalent rent increased 0.3 percent, rent of primary residence rose 0.2 percent, and lodging away from home increased 0.6 percent after a 2.0 percent rise in September. Recreation was up 0.8 percent, motor vehicle insurance 0.7 percent, medical care 0.3 percent, and household furnishings and operations 0.2 percent. Used cars and trucks fell 1.2 percent after a 0.7 percent increase in September, and the communication index decreased 0.1 percent.

Seasonally adjusted one-month percent changes in the CPI-U and in the index for all items less food and energy, March through October 2026. Energy is omitted from the chart because its much larger swings would flatten the other series; the energy index rose 0.7 percent in October after a 5.2 percent increase in September. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, CPI news release, Nov. 10, 2026; chart: The Boston Report.

By the numbers

Tuesday’s 0.4 percent all-items increase matched August and was slower than September’s 0.6 percent, but it was still firmer than the 0.1 percent rise in July and a sharp turn from June’s 0.4 percent decline. Core prices, which exclude food and energy, have now risen 0.3 percent in August, September, and October after a 0.2 percent increase in July. The 0.5 percent food increase was the largest in the official monthly series since April, when the food index also rose 0.5 percent.

Before the release, economists surveyed by Dow Jones, as cited Monday by CNBC, had forecast a 0.3 percent rise in the all-items index and a 0.2 percent increase in the core index. A Reuters survey published Tuesday morning, as carried by Investing.com, made the same monthly forecasts. The official figures came in 0.1 percentage point higher on both measures. That comparison is a TBR reading of the official BLS tables against those published surveys, not a figure issued by the bureau.

Before seasonal adjustment, the CPI-U rose 0.2 percent in October to an index level of 337.511 (1982-84=100), the bureau said, from 336.940 in September. The Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers increased 0.1 percent, to 331.147. The chained CPI-U rose 0.2 percent on an unadjusted basis; BLS notes that recent months of that index are subject to revision.

The Boston-Cambridge-Newton, MA-NH index is published in odd-numbered months, so Tuesday’s national release did not include a new local all-items figure. The latest official reading for the area remains a 3.8 percent increase for the 12 months ended September, according to BLS Table 4.

Why most annual rates are missing

In a boxed note on the release, BLS said it “did not collect survey data for October 2025 because of a lapse in appropriations” and “could not publish October 2025 indexes” for most CPI series. As a result, it “cannot publish 12-month percent changes for October 2026 for indexes where October 2025 data are unavailable.” The bureau pointed readers to its fact sheet on approximating missing data. That gap was expected: CNBC and Reuters had both previewed that the usual annual headline and core rates would be omitted.

A handful of series still carry official 12-month figures because an October 2025 index exists for those items. Gasoline (all types) was 37.4 percent higher than a year earlier, new vehicles were up 0.7 percent, and used cars and trucks were down 3.3 percent, Table A shows. Those are the exceptions, not a substitute for an all-items annual rate. Private estimates filled some of the gap ahead of the release. Bank of America, using an interpolated baseline for the missing month, put the annual rates at 3.8 percent for headline inflation and 2.7 percent for core, CNBC reported, each 0.1 percentage point above September’s official figures of 3.7 percent and 2.6 percent. Economists cited by Reuters, some averaging September and November 2025 index levels, converged around a 3.9 percent year-over-year estimate for the October CPI, with core at 2.7 percent. Those are unofficial reconstructions, not BLS statistics, and should not be read as the missing official annual rate.

What the figures mean for the Fed

The report is the last consumer price index before the Federal Reserve‘s Dec. 8-9 meeting. In comments ahead of the release, Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee told an audience in his district, “We’ve got to come to terms with this cost-side and inflation-side failure,” according to CNBC. He said price pressures were showing up in services and that the build-out of artificial-intelligence data centers was, “to my eyes, starting to look more just like old-fashioned demand overheating.” Goolsbee does not vote on the Federal Open Market Committee this year.

Joseph Brusuelas, chief economist at RSM, told Reuters before the figures were posted that he expected “further evidence of stubborn and sticky inflation, especially in the service sector,” and that he did not expect the October report “to dislodge the Fed from that monetary path” toward a December increase. Bank of America economist Stephen Juneau, also speaking before the release, wrote that unless the monthly print was an “indisputably soft 0.1 percent,” he doubted the inflation data would dissuade a quarter-point hike. The official 0.4 percent headline and 0.3 percent core readings were not that soft print. Markets had already been pricing a high chance of a December increase: CNBC, citing CME FedWatch on Monday, put the odds of a quarter-point hike at better than 80 percent, and Reuters late Monday put the chance at roughly 85 percent. Those market readings were taken before Tuesday’s report; this package does not include a post-release market close.

Treasury yields had held steady Monday as investors waited for the October figures, and San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly said last week that she expected policy would need to tighten further. The committee left its benchmark rate in a 3.75 percent to 4 percent target range at its Oct. 28 meeting, a 10-2 vote. The next CPI news release, covering November, is scheduled for Thursday, Dec. 10, at 8:30 a.m. Eastern, BLS said.

Sources

• U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics: Consumer Price Index news release, October 2026 (USDL-26-1685)
• BLS: archived October 2026 CPI news release, Nov. 10, 2026
• CNBC (Jeff Cox): preview of the October CPI report and Dow Jones forecasts, Nov. 9, 2026
• Reuters (Lucia Mutikani), via Investing.com: economists’ October CPI forecasts, Nov. 10, 2026