Global oil supply exceeded demand in October for the first time since the U.S.-Israeli war against Iran began, the International Energy Agency said Friday, Nov. 13, in its monthly oil market report.[1] Supplies outstripped demand by almost 2 million barrels a day as Gulf exports recovered faster than consumption.[1] “The oil market is showing tentative signs of rebalancing,” the Paris-based agency said.[2]
Related: Saudi Oil Output Hits Pre-War High as U.S. Gas Falls Below $4 a Gallon.
Supply jumped 5.3 million barrels a day since August
World oil supply reached 105.4 million barrels a day in October.[2] That was 2.3 million barrels a day more than in September.[2] The IEA called the 5.3 million-barrel-a-day rise since August “extraordinary,” given continuing attacks on energy sites and tankers.[2]
Observed global inventories rose by 52 million barrels in October, or 1.7 million barrels a day.[2] It was the first increase in stocks since June.[2] The OPEC+ group pumped 41 million barrels a day of crude in October, about 97% of its prewar volume.[1]
Russia’s crude output rose by 210,000 barrels a day to 8.73 million barrels a day.[2] The United States, Canada, Brazil, Argentina and Guyana are set to add a combined 1.6 million barrels a day this year.[2]
A fourth-quarter deficit becomes a surplus
The agency now expects supply to average 105 million barrels a day in the last three months of 2026.[1] That is 1.7 million barrels a day above forecast demand.[1] The IEA had previously expected a fourth-quarter deficit.[1] It raised its fourth-quarter supply estimate by 3.3 million barrels a day.[2]
World oil demand is expected to fall by 2.68 million barrels a day this year, to 103.2 million barrels a day.[1] The IEA expects consumption to rebound in 2027 but stay below 2025 levels.[1] It cited high prices, electrification and fuel efficiency as drags on vehicle fuel demand.[1]
IEA member countries will also speed up the release of emergency oil stocks pledged earlier this year.[1] The move adds another 71 million barrels to the market by the end of February.[1] Follow the conflict’s effect on shipping on the Iran war tracker.
Diesel stays tight
Diesel supply remains tight, with refinery capacity and refined product exports still constrained.[2] “Persistent attacks on Russian energy infrastructure continue to choke off the country’s diesel supplies to international markets, adding to losses from the Middle East,” the IEA said.[2]
In New England, regional governors this week asked Congress for $3 billion more in heating aid as oil costs climbed.
Prices remain well above prewar levels
Brent crude, the international benchmark, traded near $72 a barrel in February, before the war began.[1] It reached $126 by the end of April.[1] About a fifth of the world’s oil and gas normally passes through the Strait of Hormuz, where shipments were blocked for months.[1]
Brent fell to $89.66 this week, its lowest level since late August.[1] President Donald Trump had told reporters the war with Iran was “effectively over.”[1] Brent then settled 3.3% higher at $95.82 on Thursday after Trump posted that “We don’t need a deal with Iran.”[3] West Texas Intermediate settled at $88.74.[3] Brent traded near $95 on Friday.[1]
Jeffrey Currie, founder of Real Macro, told CNBC that high insurance and tanker rates keep longer-dated futures elevated.[3] “While it caps the prompt barrel, it does nothing to cheapen the next one,” Currie said.[3] Track the wider picture on the U.S. economy tracker and the economic warfare dashboard.
Our Take
Opinion. A crude surplus is good news, but it is not yet relief at the pump or the oil tank. Diesel and heating oil depend on refinery output and product exports, which the IEA says remain constrained. Households planning winter budgets should watch distillate prices, not just Brent headlines.
Sources
- The Guardian: Global oil supply returns to surplus for first time since start of Iran war, says IEA
- CNBC: Russian crude production rebounds after Trump diesel deal, IEA says as oil markets return to surplus
- CNBC: Oil prices rise after Trump says no Iran deal needed: ‘We’ve got their Strait’
Read next in Markets
Most read this week
- Finland Confirms Strike on Russian Warship in Gulf of Finland; Ukraine’s SBU Claims Drone Attack
- U.S. Envoys Witkoff and Kushner Hold Talks With Putin in Moscow, Then Head to Dublin to Brief Zelensky
- Israeli Strike on Gaza’s Nasser Hospital Kills Six, Including a Surgeon, Health Ministry Says
- Nvidia Board Hires Wachtell’s Joon Kim to Lead Huang Probe as Shares Fall 5.47% and an Investor Sues
- Drones Kill Workers at Zaporizhzhia Nuclear and Thermal Plants, IAEA Says, as Russian Strikes Hit 5 Substations
Latest
- Massachusetts Fights to Stay a Quantum Hub as Washington and Rival States Pour Billions Into the Race
- Blood Test Spots Signs of Advanced CTE in Early Study of 11 Autopsy-Confirmed Cases
- CMS Lets States Hold Off on Medicaid Work-Rule Coverage Cuts Through June 2027
- JSX Will Fly From Hanscom Field to New York and Miami in February, Its First Massachusetts Routes
- Massachusetts Business Filings Up 11% in 2026: Where Boston Founders Get Free Help and Loans
Get The Boston Report Briefing
Our free weekly email with the most important stories from Boston and the world. Unsubscribe anytime.
Free. We never sell your address. Privacy policy