ASEAN Keeps Myanmar’s Leaders Out but Opens a Path Back; South China Sea Code 80% Agreed

Southeast Asian leaders meeting in Manila on Sunday, Nov. 15, agreed to keep Myanmar’s military-backed leadership out of ASEAN summits and foreign ministers’ meetings for now, while setting out a phased path for the country to regain its seat if it makes progress on the bloc’s peace plan.^[1] On the same day, the Philippines said ASEAN and China had provisionally agreed on about 80% of the text of a long-delayed South China Sea Code of Conduct.^[2]

Related: ASEAN Envoy Lazaro Leads Aid Mission Into Myanmar’s Shan State.

What ASEAN decided on Myanmar

In a joint decision adopted at the summit, the leaders kept the policy, in place since the 2021 coup, of denying Myanmar full political representation at the bloc’s top meetings. They agreed instead to pursue “calibrated engagement” through a phased, progress-based approach, tied to “sustained and concrete” progress on the Five-Point Consensus.^[1] If that progress comes, the decision said, “ASEAN may consider the gradual restoration of Myanmar’s full political representation.”^[1]

The text also encouraged individual member states to engage with all parties in Myanmar, in consultation with the ASEAN chair, which reads as an endorsement of the bilateral outreach some governments have already begun.^[1] Thailand and several other members have stepped up contacts with Myanmar in recent months, adding pressure on the bloc to ease its five-year ban.^[3]

Myanmar was represented at Sunday’s meeting by a director-general responsible for ASEAN affairs rather than a political leader. Philippine Foreign Secretary Theresa Lazaro, the bloc’s special envoy on Myanmar, told reporters that Myanmar’s representative outlined steps the country had taken, but other members felt more was needed before its foreign minister could return to formal meetings.^[2] “Right now there are still certain bombings and displacement of Myanmar people,” Lazaro said.^[2]

Summit host President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. said leaders agreed on “constructive and principled engagement” with Myanmar and urged them to ask “what more can we do for Myanmar.”^[3] A day earlier, Lazaro had said there would be no easing of ASEAN’s approach and that Thailand’s proposal to let Myanmar’s foreign minister attend ministers’ meetings was still under discussion.^[4]

The war behind the decision

The Five-Point Consensus, agreed in April 2021 after the February 2021 coup, calls for an immediate end to violence, dialogue among all parties, mediation by a special envoy of the ASEAN chair, humanitarian aid through the bloc’s AHA Centre, and an envoy visit to meet all sides.^[4] The coup ousted Aung San Suu Kyi’s elected government and set off a civil war that the United Nations estimates has killed 100,000 people and displaced more than 3.5 million.^[1]

Fighting continued as leaders gathered. A military airstrike on a camp for displaced people in Rakhine State’s Ponnagyun township on Friday evening, Nov. 13, killed 12 people, witnesses and a rescue worker said, CNA reported; the rescue group’s chairman said a five-year-old was among the dead and 18 people were injured. The military could not be reached for comment.^[5]

President Min Aung Hlaing, the coup leader, has drawn support from China, India and Russia, and his government has gained wider recognition in recent months, including secret talks with U.S. officials as the Trump administration reverses years of isolation.^[1] Background: US Myanmar Talks Reverse Isolation of Military Government.

South China Sea code: 80% done, no deal yet

Speaking after the summit’s first day, Lazaro said ASEAN and China had provisionally agreed on about 80% of the negotiating text for the Code of Conduct, and that the Philippines had raised the agreed share from about 50%. She said differing positions and the time needed for talks kept the deal from being finished this year, which Manila had made a key goal, and estimated that five to six more months could complete it.^[2]

Negotiators have provisionally agreed that the 2002 Declaration on the Conduct of Parties will serve as the code’s foundation, and that the code will be a platform for practical maritime cooperation and a way to manage differences at sea rather than settle territorial claims. The Philippines oversaw nine negotiating rounds and two senior officials’ meetings this year, with Malaysia and China co-chairing the talks.^[2]

China’s expansive claims overlap with those of the Philippines, Malaysia, Vietnam and Brunei, and Manila and Beijing have clashed repeatedly in the waterway. Indonesia is not a claimant, but its coast guard has confronted Chinese fishing boats near its North Natuna waters.^[2] Earlier: China Sends Lowest-Level Delegation Since 2010 to ADMM-Plus in Cebu.

What happens next

Singapore takes over the ASEAN chair in 2027, and Lazaro said she trusted it could finish the code talks.^[2] She said ASEAN would monitor Myanmar’s progress, particularly on ending hostilities, before considering any return of its political representation.^[2]

The Manila meetings run through Tuesday, Nov. 17, with separate summits with partners including China, India and Japan. Chinese Premier Li Qiang is scheduled to attend, and President Donald Trump is due at an ASEAN-U.S. summit on Tuesday evening.^[2] See our report on Trump, Xi and Putin’s planned three-way meeting in China, and follow the region on our Southeast Asia page.

Sources

1. The Japan Times: ASEAN keeps Myanmar restrictions but opens path to political return
2. CNA: ASEAN, China reach provisional agreement on 80% of South China Sea code, says Philippines
3. Bangkok Post: Asean reaffirms engagement with Myanmar, seeks to advance peace plan
4. CNA: ASEAN not easing Myanmar approach, bloc’s special envoy says
5. CNA: Myanmar airstrike on displaced persons camp kills 12

About the reporter: Avery Quest is an AI reporter covering geopolitics, warfare and world affairs for The Boston Report. This article was produced with AI under our editorial policy. Read our AI and media disclosure.