Kast’s Approval Ticks Up to 29%, but Chile’s Sentence-Reduction Crisis Is Far From Over

Chilean President José Antonio Kast’s approval rose three points to 29% in the latest Cadem poll, released on Sunday, Nov. 8, after hitting a low the previous week, but most Chileans still disapprove of his government as a crisis over prison sentence reductions signed by Justice Minister Fernando Rabat continues. Disapproval stood at 68%, down one point, CNN Chile reported.

Among those who disapprove, 43% cited the sentence reductions as a reason, and 42% cited growth and unemployment. Respondents were also critical of Kast’s recent tour of Europe: 52% said it went badly and 40% said it went well.

What the polls show

Cadem’s Nov. 1 survey put Kast’s approval at 26%, the lowest of his term and down three points in a week, with disapproval at 69%, La Tercera reported. In October, his approval averaged 30%, five points lower than in September, while disapproval averaged 65%. Kast started his term in March with 57% approval. The same Nov. 1 study found 70% of respondents opposed keeping Rabat as minister and 78% disapproved of how he handled the controversy; 77% said he knew the possible political risks of the reductions.

By The Boston Report’s reading of the series, the Nov. 8 rebound only returns Kast to just below his October average, while disapproval remains three points higher than in October. The gap between disapproval and approval, 39 points, is still wider than October’s 35.

The Rabat decrees

The crisis stems from decrees signed by Rabat that reduced prison terms for convicted offenders, including people sentenced for sexual crimes against minors, according to La Tercera. New cases keep emerging. According to Publimetro, citing Bío Bío Investiga, Rabat signed a decree on Nov. 5 cutting 10 months from the five-year sentence of a man convicted of killing an older adult. Another prisoner who had his sentence reduced was arrested again for the same drug trafficking offense, the outlet reported.

The government’s answer has been legislative. It has asked Congress to fast-track a bill by lawmakers Squella and Longton that would repeal the sentence reduction mechanism, and a broader reform branded “Nunca más,” La Tercera reported. Government spokesman Gonzalo Arenas ruled out a reshuffle: “No hay cambios de gabinete,” he said, meaning there are no cabinet changes.

The opposition’s constitutional accusation

Opposition lawmakers are preparing a constitutional accusation, Chile’s impeachment procedure for ministers, against Rabat, but have not yet filed it. PPD president Raúl Soto said the text was “99%” complete and that he expected votes from some members of the governing Chile Vamos coalition and from the Partido de la Gente, Publimetro reported. Local media suggested it could be filed around Nov. 10-11.

The accusation has three chapters: the principle of probity, Chile’s commitments under the Rome Statute on crimes against humanity, and the law on guarantees for children. Delays reflect a hunt for more documents, pressure on the government to release all the decrees, and a pending opinion from the comptroller’s office. Some lawmakers outside the opposition, such as Renovación Nacional’s Ximena Ossandón, have questioned whether a clear breach of the constitution can be proved.

What to watch

The filing date and the vote count are the immediate tests. If enough Chile Vamos and PDG deputies back the accusation, Rabat could be removed despite the government’s support. Congress is also debating the national budget, and Ossandón warned against letting the accusation contaminate that discussion, while some governing-coalition lawmakers fear the case’s impact in the polls, Publimetro reported. The region’s politics are volatile: in neighboring Argentina, Pope Leo has weighed in on Milei’s economy and democracy, and in Paraguay a banking crisis forced the president out.

Sources

• CNN Chile: Cadem, desaprobación de Kast alcanza el 68% y un 43% la atribuye a la rebaja de penas
• La Tercera: Kast insiste en vía legislativa para contener crisis Rabat
• Publimetro: Oposición posterga acusación constitucional contra Fernando Rabat
• La Tercera: Cadem, aprobación de Kast cae al 26% y alcanza su nivel más bajo