Illustration of Philippines China South China Sea tension: two patrol cutters near a reef with a fighter jet overhead

Philippines-China Incidents Spike: Scarborough, Second Thomas, Batanes

by

Key takeaways

  • USNI News counted at least six dangerous Philippine-Chinese encounters since the start of October, at Scarborough Shoal, Second Thomas Shoal and the Spratly Islands, plus a new standoff near the Batanes Islands.
  • On Oct. 3 a Chinese J-16 fighter and a Philippine C-208 aircraft had a close encounter near Scarborough Shoal; Manila called it an aviation safety risk, while China said the aircraft illegally entered its airspace.
  • On Oct. 9, Philippine authorities said the same Chinese maritime militia vessel returned to Kota Island with 22 small boats, 11 days after an earlier visit with 24.
  • The 2016 arbitral ruling rejected the legal basis of China’s expansive claims; China claims most of the South China Sea.

Encounters between Philippine and Chinese forces in and above the South China Sea have increased in early October 2026. The two governments describe individual incidents in sharply different terms, and this report lays out both accounts without adjudicating them. It draws on U.S. Naval Institute News, Philippine media and Chinese military statements as quoted by those outlets. We have not independently verified any of the incident details.

The count so far

USNI News reported on Oct. 9 that Philippine and Chinese forces “dangerously engaged” each other at least six times at several disputed areas since the beginning of October: Scarborough Shoal, Second Thomas Shoal and the Spratly Islands. It also described a new area of tension in the Luzon Strait near the Batanes Islands, located closer to Taipei than Manila and overlooking a chokepoint used to transit the First Island Chain. Last month, Manila reported that Chinese forces blocked a resupply mission to the BRP Sierra Madre at Second Thomas Shoal, which USNI described as the first publicly reported interception since a provisional arrangement was reached after a June 2024 clash.

Competing accounts of the Oct. 3 air encounter

The Armed Forces of the Philippines said a C-208 on a routine maritime patrol near Bajo de Masinloc (Scarborough Shoal) encountered two Chinese military aircraft, one a J-16, which repeatedly approached and maneuvered close, including positioning within the C-208’s wake. “These maneuvers posed an aviation safety risk,” the AFP said, as reported by Philstar on Oct. 6. China’s Southern Theater Command spokesperson, Senior Capt. Zhai Shichen, said the Philippine aircraft “illegally intruded into the territorial airspace over China’s Huangyan Dao,” that Chinese forces warned and expelled it “in accordance with laws and regulations,” and urged Manila to stop “provocative acts.” China claims most of the South China Sea, including the shoal, although a 2016 arbitral ruling rejected the legal basis of its expansive claims, Philstar noted. A Korean think-tank analysis described the two accounts as completely opposite and characterized the encounter as part of China extending control from sea to airspace; that is the analyst’s interpretation, not an established fact.

Other incidents this month

USNI described a standoff on Sunday near Thitu Island, where Philippine forces tried to apprehend a vessel it said was fishing illegally and Chinese militia, coast guard and a navy helicopter harassed them. On Thursday it described an extended medical evacuation from the BRP Sierra Madre at Second Thomas Shoal that, per the Philippine side as relayed by USNI, faced intensive China Coast Guard harassment of the cutters involved. We covered that event in our earlier report on the Ayungin Shoal evacuation.

The Philippine National Task Force for the West Philippine Sea said that Chinese Maritime Militia Vessel 9622 returned to Kota Island (also called Loaita) on Oct. 9 with 22 sampans that fished without authorization and reportedly dumped waste, encircled Philippine patrol boats and ordered personnel to leave, per the Inquirer. The same vessel had brought 24 sampans on Sept. 28. The task force said “repeated intrusions, coercive maneuvers, and baseless assertions of sovereignty will not be allowed to become normalized.” Philstar also reported that about two weeks earlier the Philippines said a China Coast Guard vessel rammed a Philippine fisheries boat in the Spratlys; China said the Philippine vessel “bears full responsibility.”

The Batanes front

According to USNI, from Oct. 1 to 2 the Philippine Coast Guard pressured a Chinese civilian maritime survey vessel to leave waters near Batanes, while the China Coast Guard deployed one of its largest cutters, a design derived from the Type 052D destroyer hull, to protect it. The Chinese vessels left and were shadowed by three Taiwan Coast Guard Administration vessels once the standoff neared Taiwan’s exclusive economic zone. For earlier coverage see our brief on the Batanes standoff, our report on China’s Scarborough drills and our report on a Chinese militia boat off Taiwan.

Why it matters

The incidents involve a U.S. treaty ally, contested features near key shipping routes and aircraft operating at close range, where the margin for error is smaller than at sea, according to the analysis cited above. The Diplomat also reported in late September that China held a joint exercise around Scarborough Shoal two days after Manila accused Beijing of obstructing the Second Thomas Shoal resupply, and, in that outlet’s assessment, that the provisional understanding there appears to have broken down. No incident reported this month caused deaths in the sources reviewed. What to watch: the next Second Thomas resupply, any further air encounters near Scarborough, statements from Manila and Beijing, and progress, if any, on an ASEAN code of conduct.

Sources

Related sections: Geopolitics news and analysis · Warfare news and analysis · World Affairs