Israel’s Knesset election is set for Tuesday, Oct. 27, 2026, and the question hanging over the campaign is whether Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu can win a majority again. With 15 days to go, recent Israeli polls suggest his bloc of parties is short of the 61 seats needed to govern, though the gap varies widely by pollster and the anti-Netanyahu camp is also short of a majority without Arab parties.
Key Numbers Up Top
- Majority needed: 61 of the Knesset’s 120 seats.
- Newest poll (Channel 12, fielded Oct. 12): Netanyahu bloc 49, Zionist opposition 54, Arab parties 13, a “third bloc” 4. Sample of 509 adults, margin of error 4.4 points.
- Kan 11 (published Oct. 11): Netanyahu bloc 53, Gadi Eisenkot’s bloc 50.
- Maariv (Oct. 9): 52 to 52, with Arab parties at 12.
- Channel 13 (published by Oct. 11): Netanyahu bloc 55, Eisenkot’s bloc 50, Arab parties 15.
- Eight-poll average (IsraelElection.org, to Oct. 9): Netanyahu bloc 55.0, anti-Netanyahu Zionist parties 48.4, Arab parties 12.5, others 4.1. The Netanyahu bloc reaches 61 in only one of eight current polls, Channel 14’s.
Will Netanyahu Win? What the Polls Indicate
No current poll is a forecast, and Israeli elections are decided by coalition-building after the vote, not by the popular vote alone. On the numbers available as of Oct. 12, seven of the eight polls in the IsraelElection.org average place Netanyahu’s bloc below 61 seats. The one exception is Channel 14. When Channel 14 and i24NEWS are removed, the site says the Netanyahu bloc average falls to 52.3 seats, compared with 50.7 for the anti-Netanyahu Zionist parties.
That means the polls point to a deadlock rather than a clear winner. Netanyahu’s bloc is frequently the larger of the two Jewish-majority blocs, but it would need to add roughly six to 12 seats, depending on the poll, to govern alone. The opposition faces its own math problem: in most surveys it can reach 61 only by counting Arab parties, which the Jerusalem Post describes as unaffiliated with either bloc.
Party-by-Party: The Channel 12 Poll
The latest Channel 12 survey, reported by Anadolu Agency, put former military chief of staff Gadi Eisenkot’s Yashar party first with 23 seats and Netanyahu’s Likud second with 20, down one from the channel’s previous poll. Former Prime Minister Naftali Bennett’s Beyachad party held at 13. Yair Golan’s Democrats and Avigdor Lieberman’s Yisrael Beiteinu each received nine.
Shas, Itamar Ben-Gvir’s Jewish Power and the Joint List, led by Yousef Jabareen, each received eight seats. United Torah Judaism received seven, the Religious Zionism-Zehut alliance of Bezalel Smotrich and Moshe Feiglin six, and Mansour Abbas’ United Arab List (Ra’am) five. The Reservists-Economic list of Yoaz Hendel and Yaron Zelekha received four. About 8% of respondents were undecided, according to the channel.
On who is better suited to be prime minister, Channel 12 found Eisenkot ahead of Netanyahu 45% to 35%, up from a three-point lead in its previous survey. Bennett edged Netanyahu 37% to 36%, while Netanyahu led Lieberman 35% to 27%.
Other Recent Polls Tell a Closer Story
Not every survey lines up with Channel 12. A Kan 11 poll published Sunday, Oct. 11, projected Yashar at 22 seats and Likud at 20, but gave Netanyahu’s bloc 53 seats to 50 for Eisenkot’s bloc, according to The Jerusalem Post. The same Kan poll found 54% support for a televised debate between Netanyahu and Eisenkot.
Maariv’s weekly poll showed Likud gaining a seat, leaving the coalition bloc and the Zionist opposition tied at 52 each, with Arab parties at 12. Channel 13 had Yashar and Likud tied at 20 seats each and the Netanyahu bloc ahead 55 to 50, with Ofer Winter’s People of Israel party crossing the threshold with five seats. In the Kan and Channel 12 polls, Winter’s party fell below the 3.25% electoral threshold.
Small Parties and the Threshold
Parties hovering near the threshold could decide the outcome. Winter’s People of Israel counts toward the Netanyahu bloc when it gets in, and its seats disappear when it does not, which helps explain why the bloc swings between 49 and 55 across polls. On the other side, Hendel and Zelekha’s Reservists list polled at 2.9% in Channel 13’s survey but won four seats in others. Benny Gantz’s Blue and White polled below 1% in both Channel 13 and Channel 12. Shas and United Torah Judaism signed a surplus vote-sharing agreement ahead of the vote, according to the Jerusalem Post and Haaretz, as summarized by IsraelElection.org.
The Trend Over Recent Weeks
The IsraelElection.org running average shows modest movement. In mid-September the Netanyahu bloc averaged about 55 seats against roughly 52.6 for the anti-Netanyahu Zionist parties. By late September the Netanyahu bloc dipped to about 53.3 while the opposition held near 50.4. Since then the Netanyahu bloc has climbed back to 55.0 as of Oct. 9, while the opposition average slipped to 48.4. Channel 12’s Oct. 12 poll, published after that average, runs against that trend. The average does not account for it yet.
The Main Rivals
Eisenkot, a former Israel Defense Forces chief of staff, leads Yashar, which tops most recent polls as the single largest party. Bennett, prime minister in 2021-22, heads Beyachad. Lieberman leads Yisrael Beiteinu, and Golan leads the Democrats on the center-left. Netanyahu has led the current government since late December 2022, Pollsters group Likud with Shas, United Torah Judaism, Jewish Power and Religious Zionism in his bloc.
Possible Scenarios
- Netanyahu bloc reaches 61: Shown only in Channel 14’s poll among current surveys. Other polls would need the bloc to gain six or more seats, for example through threshold parties such as People of Israel getting in.
- Opposition reaches 61 without Arab parties: Not shown in the polls cited here; Channel 12’s 54 is the highest.
- Deadlock: The outcome most polls currently point to, which could lead to extended coalition talks, a broad unity arrangement, or another election, as happened repeatedly between 2019 and 2022.
Polls carry margins of error of several points, and undecided voters and turnout could move several seats. For our earlier look at the race, see Israel Election 2026: Polls Show No Bloc Reaching 61 Seats. For regional context, read our report on Iran Strait of Hormuz incidents.