Geopolitics and Business Report, Oct. 24, 2026: Oil at Six-Month High, Starlink Back On

Economic Warfare & Trade Policy › Energy & commodities

Good evening, this is The Boston Report, and welcome to the geopolitics and business report for Saturday, October 24, 2026. Tonight we follow the money through four fault lines: oil climbing to a six-month high as warnings about Iran grow louder, Ukraine getting its Starlink speed back after a public fight with Elon Musk, the Pentagon quietly turning into a stock investor, and Gulf wealth funds steering billions toward China even as war forces Saudi Arabia to cancel its biggest investor summit of the year.

Oil Hits a Six-Month High as Iran Threat Warnings Spread

We start with energy. Brent crude, the global benchmark, settled Friday at 116 dollars and 72 cents a barrel, up 3.1 percent on the day and its highest close since April 29, CNBC reported. U.S. crude rose 3.8 percent to 103 dollars and 27 cents. Brent gained 6.2 percent for the week, its third straight weekly rise. CNBC tied the move to growing bets that U.S. strikes on Iran will resume in the coming weeks.

Security warnings are adding to that risk premium. American embassies across the Middle East went on heightened alert on Saturday after a memo from Director of National Intelligence Jay Clayton, first described by The New York Times, said Iran has “substantially increased efforts to target U.S. personnel” in the region. CNBC reports the administration has vowed renewed military strikes on Iran after the November 3 midterm elections. There was one diplomatic flicker. Iran’s ambassador to Pakistan, Reza Amiri Moghadam, told the Associated Press that Tehran would reopen the Strait of Hormuz if Washington lifted its naval blockade, and said the U.S. had rebuffed the idea. Iranian state media later denied that report !Disputed claim, Iranian state media (state-controlled); disputed by AP. Iran’s army chief also said the military is fully prepared for “asymmetric warfare,” according to Tasnim !Unverified claim, Tasnim (IRGC-affiliated). For the military backdrop, see our report on U.S. and Israeli plans for renewed Iran strikes after the midterms.

Starlink Is Back On in Ukraine, but Who Holds the Switch?

Now to a story where one company sits at the center of a war. Ukraine’s Defense Ministry said on Saturday that its monitoring systems “officially record the restoration” of Starlink and Starshield speeds, with connections holding stable on equipment moving faster than 400 kilometers an hour, or about 249 miles an hour. The Financial Times reported that the slowdown had hampered Kyiv’s ability to defend itself against Russian strikes. Since October 14, Ukrainian officials had complained that any drone flying above 100 miles an hour lost its link.

Hours later, SpaceX chief executive Elon Musk gave his explanation on X: “Ukraine military violated Starlink terms of service and used it for offensive drone strikes to kill people. That loophole was closed last week.” President Trump told reporters in Florida, “I have spoken to Elon Musk,” confirming a Wall Street Journal report that he had asked Musk to ease the limits, CNBC reported. Lawmakers from both parties have called for a formal probe. Our Oct. 23 geopolitics and business report covered Kyiv’s search for a Starlink backup.

The American Prospect’s Harold Meyerson argues the episode shows a private owner steering U.S. foreign and military policy, which he blames on roughly 45 years of government contracting out work it once did itself. His conclusion is blunt: “SpaceX must be nationalized.” He writes that Starlink and SpaceX provide “crucial national security infrastructure” that should not be switched on and off at the whim of its owner.

The Pentagon Is Becoming a Shareholder

That question of state ownership runs straight into the defense budget. The American Prospect’s Zachary Groz reports that an Economic Defense Unit, set up this year by memo from Deputy Defense Secretary Stephen Feinberg, has been operating without congressional authorization while it evaluates what equity stake the government should take in private companies.

A Senate Armed Services Committee draft of the defense bill would strip that unit of the power to lead equity deals and leave the Office of Strategic Capital as the only office allowed to buy stakes. The draft would also bar that office’s director from company boards, require ownership reports to Congress before each deal, and force the Pentagon to hand over every equity term sheet from the past two years. Since the committee approved the draft, the Pentagon has made four more direct equity investments outside that office, totaling 775 million dollars, all in critical minerals companies. The money requested is far larger than before. The Office of Strategic Capital asked for 300 million dollars last year and more than 20 billion dollars this year. The Prospect also notes the office took a 35 percent stake in a U.S.-led Venezuelan oil venture. A Pentagon spokesperson said the department is “working closely with the committees” to “unleash the arsenal of freedom.” Our earlier investigation of China’s critical-mineral export controls explains why Washington is racing to buy into the minerals supply chain.

Gulf Money Heads East as Riyadh’s Summit Waits

Finally, the Gulf. Saudi Arabia has postponed its Future Investment Initiative, the so-called Davos in the Desert, which was set for October 26 through 29 in Riyadh, until 2027, CNBC reported. The move followed a Houthi attack on Riyadh’s King Khalid International Airport on October 10 that killed at least 12 people and injured more than 300. Jamie Dimon, David Solomon, Stephen Schwarzman, Larry Fink and Jane Fraser had all been listed as speakers. The Financial Times reports that the conference’s organizer, Richard Attias, must now contend with war and spending cuts.

Yet Gulf money keeps moving. Sovereign wealth funds put 14.2 billion dollars into mainland China and Hong Kong in the first nine months of 2026, nearly triple what they invested in all of 2025, according to Global SWF data cited by CNBC. Saudi Arabia’s Public Investment Fund alone accounted for 6 billion dollars, and four Gulf funds made up nearly 70 percent of the total. “Valuations are lower than they’ve been in years,” said Andrew Wang of Abu Dhabi’s Mubadala. For scale, the United States still drew 132.4 billion dollars of sovereign money over the same period. Indonesia’s wealth fund, Danantara, also wants deeper ties with China, but its home market is struggling. The Economist reports that index provider MSCI threatened on October 15 to downgrade Indonesia to a “standalone” market, and that Indonesian stocks have lost half their dollar value this year, the worst performance in the world.

That is the geopolitics and business report for this Saturday. From all of us at The Boston Report, thank you for listening, and good night.

Sources

• CNBC: Brent crude oil tops $116, a six-month high
• CNBC: American embassies tighten security as Iran threat warnings intensify
• CNBC: After SpaceX restores high-speed service, Musk claims Ukraine violated Starlink agreement
• Financial Times: Ukraine military says Starlink service restrictions have been lifted
• The American Prospect: SpaceX Is a De Facto Government Agency. It Should Be Nationalized.
• The American Prospect: As Lawmakers Scrutinize Pentagon Equity Deals, Pentagon Keeps Making Them
• CNBC: Saudi Arabia postpones big investor conference to 2027
• Financial Times: Davos in the Desert’s ‘old fox’ Richard Attias faces his latest test
• CNBC: Sovereign wealth funds’ China and Hong Kong investments surge 190%
• The Economist: Multinational businesses are losing confidence in Indonesia