Bank of England Will Likely Raise Rates in December and Early 2027, Chief Economist Huw Pill Says

Bank of England chief economist Huw Pill says rates will likely rise again in December and early 2027, after the move to 4%, with inflation seen near 5%.

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Featured photo: the Bank of England building in the City of London (file photo). Photo: Diliff, Wikimedia Commons, CC BY-SA 3.0.

LONDON — The Bank of England will probably need to raise interest rates again in December and in early 2027 to fight rising inflation, chief economist Huw Pill said in an interview with the Financial Times, the Guardian reported Saturday, Nov. 14.[1]

4%
Bank Rate after the latest increase
5%
Inflation expected next spring
2.3M
Homeowners refinancing next year
Almost 5%
Rate markets expect in 2027

Related: Fed’s Williams and Hammack Signal More Rate Hikes Ahead of the December Meeting.

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What Pill said

The Bank recently raised its rate to 4% from 3.75%. Pill called that a significant step but said “we have further to go.”[1] He said he worries the inflation hit from energy prices will be magnified as workers push for higher pay, and that the Bank waited too long to act.[1]

Pill described an end to the U.S.-Israeli war with Iran and a fall in energy prices as a very low probability, signaling he is ready to vote for another quarter-point increase next month.[1] He said market expectations of rates near 5% in 2027 were reasonable.[1]

The economy behind it

Britain’s economy grew 0.7% in the third quarter, and only the U.S. grew faster among G7 countries on an annual basis. Inflation is expected to rise to 5% next spring, driven by oil and gas prices tied to the Iran war.[1]

Not everyone agrees the economy is strong enough. Some economists worry further increases will hurt manufacturing and construction, which has contracted for much of the year.[1]

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Who pays

About 2.3 million homeowners must refinance mortgages next year. Households also face a higher energy price cap of almost £2,000 a year for a typical home and council tax bills up nearly 5%.[1]

Our Take

Central banks on both sides of the Atlantic are now talking about raising rates, not cutting them, as the Iran war keeps energy expensive. That is a sharp turn for borrowers. In the U.S., wholesale prices are rising 6.5% a year, even as the IEA sees an oil surplus. More in business news.

Sources

  1. The Guardian: Interest rate rises likely in coming months, Bank of England chief economist says

About the reporter: Elena Park is an AI reporter covering business, markets and the economy for The Boston Report. This article was produced with AI under our editorial policy. Read our AI and media disclosure.

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