Democrat Mary Peltola widened her lead over Republican Sen. Dan Sullivan in Alaska’s U.S. Senate race after another ballot count on Saturday, Nov. 14.[1] The NBC News Decision Desk on Saturday characterized the race as “likely Democratic,” a rating it said reflects at least 95% confidence that Peltola will win.[2] NBC News said it has not yet made a projection in the race.[2] The Associated Press has not called the race, Alaska Public Media reported.[3]
Related: Peltola Leads Sullivan by 637 Votes as Alaska Awaits Next Count and Nov. 18 Tally.
Where the count stands
The Alaska Division of Elections counted roughly 4,000 more ballots on Saturday.[1] That brought the total tallied to more than 283,000.[1] The AP estimates that 97% of the vote is counted.[3]
Two Alaska outlets reported slightly different shares after Saturday’s count. The Anchorage Daily News reported Peltola at 50.1% of first-choice votes and Sullivan at 46.1%.[1] Alaska Public Media reported Peltola at 49.9% and Sullivan at 46%.[3]
Friday’s update added roughly 22,500 ballots.[3] After that count, Peltola led by 3.7 percentage points, or just over 10,000 votes, NBC News said.[4] She received 58% of the votes reported Friday night, and Sullivan received 38%.[4] Absentee voters have so far tended to favor Peltola.[1]
Two ways the race can end
Peltola would win outright if her share of first-choice votes stays above 50%.[1] If no candidate has a majority, the state eliminates the lowest-placed candidate and counts those voters’ next choices.[2] The process repeats until a candidate has a majority.[2] That tabulation would take place Nov. 18, after the deadline for ballots mailed from overseas.[3]
Two other candidates are on the ballot. Dan J. Sullivan, a retired teacher from Petersburg, has 1.7% of first-choice votes.[1] Republican Gerald Heikes has 2.1%.[1]
An NBC News Decision Desk analysis published Saturday found that Peltola is on track to win under either scenario.[4] With about 12,000 votes outstanding, Sen. Sullivan would need around 92% of them to tie Peltola on first choices, the analysis said.[4]
The analysis also examined the state’s published ballot records.[4] More than 45% of voters who chose another candidate first did not rank Peltola or Sen. Sullivan at all, NBC News said.[4] At current rates, only about 6,600 ballots would be redistributed to the top two candidates, the analysis said.[4] Results for every race are on The Boston Report’s election tracker.
Legal questions around the race
A New York Times report before the election alleged that Peltola’s team was involved in recruiting Dan J. Sullivan to draw votes from the incumbent, Alaska Public Media reported.[3] Peltola denied knowing about the recruitment effort.[3] The matter remains the subject of state and federal investigations.[3] U.S. Attorney Michael Heyman announced a criminal investigation and did not cite specific laws that may have been broken.[3]
The Justice Department sued on Oct. 22 to block certification if Sen. Sullivan lost.[3] A federal judge dismissed the case, and the department is appealing.[3] No decision is expected before the new Congress is sworn in.[3]
As of Friday’s update, Peltola’s lead was more than double Dan J. Sullivan’s vote total.[3] State certification of the election is slated for Nov. 25.[3]
What is at stake
Alaska’s is the only U.S. Senate contest still unresolved.[3] Democrats would hold a 56-44 Senate majority next year if Peltola wins.[2] The Democratic caucus would have 55 members if Sen. Sullivan keeps his seat.[3] The Congress tracker follows the balance of power in both chambers.
Peltola, a former member of Congress, would be the first Indigenous Alaskan elected to the U.S. Senate.[3] Sullivan is a two-term senator and a former Alaska attorney general.[3] President Donald Trump held a rally for him in Wasilla last month.[3]
The Division of Elections is set to keep counting through Wednesday, the last day it accepts absentee ballots mailed from overseas.[1] Thousands of votes remain to be tallied.[1] The Boston Report does not call races, and results are unofficial until certified. More coverage is on the politics and government hub.
Sources
- Anchorage Daily News: Peltola now has majority of votes in Alaska’s U.S. Senate race as ballot counting continues
- NBC News: Democrat Mary Peltola is likely to win Alaska’s Senate race, as vote counting continues
- Alaska Public Media: Peltola leads in U.S. Senate race, nearing 50% mark with almost all ballots counted
- NBC News: Why Mary Peltola is on track to win in Alaska, even if ranked choice ballots come into play
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