Russia Has Up to 700 Ballistic Missiles Heading Into Winter, Ukrainian Intelligence Says

Russia’s missile stockpile stands at up to 700 ballistic missiles and several thousand cruise missiles as of October 2026, and its factories can turn out more than 200 missiles a month, 110 of them ballistic, Ukraine’s Defence Intelligence (HUR) said in estimates released on Oct. 20. HUR gave the figures to the Ukrainian outlet NV as Russia presses a strike campaign against Ukraine’s power grid ahead of winter.

HUR also put Russia’s operational reserve of Geran attack drones, the Russian-built version of Iran’s Shahed, at about 6,200, and its total output of drones of all types at about 10,000 a month.

Russia’s Missile Stockpile by Type

The agency broke its numbers down by weapon. Every figure below is HUR’s estimate, with its own wording kept:

• Iskander-M (ballistic): about 115 in stock; production of up to 65 a month. HUR said Russia is developing an upgraded system with a projected range of 550 to 700 kilometers, up from the current 500 kilometers.
• Kh-101 (air-launched cruise missile): a monthly production plan of more than 80, which HUR said Russian factories are exceeding. HUR gave no current stock figure for this missile.
• Kalibr (sea-launched cruise missile): more than 450 in stock; about 29 made a month.
• RM-48U (S-300PM and S-400 air-defense missiles adapted to strike ground targets): up to 400 in stock; about 40 made a month.
• Oniks (anti-ship missile, modernized): more than 600 in stock.
• Zircon (hypersonic): more than 120 in stock.
• Kinzhal (air-launched aeroballistic): production temporarily suspended because of unsatisfactory accuracy, HUR said, with the capacity shifted to conventional ballistic missiles.

How the 200 and 110 Figures Fit Together

HUR’s headline numbers mix two kinds of weapons, so the per-type rates do not all count toward the ballistic total. The Kh-101 and Kalibr are cruise missiles. They count toward the “more than 200” monthly figure but not toward the 110 ballistic missiles. The two ballistic types with monthly rates, the Iskander-M at up to 65 and the RM-48U at about 40, come to roughly 105. The four types with monthly rates, adding the two cruise missiles, come to roughly 214. That is in line with HUR’s “more than 200.”

The stock figures leave a similar gap. The Iskander-M and RM-48U holdings named by HUR add up to about 515, against a ballistic stockpile of up to 700. As reported by NV and other outlets, HUR’s reply did not say which weapons make up the rest. The Boston Report has not filled that gap with estimates of its own.

Geran Drones and the Strain on Ukraine’s Air Defenses

HUR said Russia has shifted since the summer toward jet-powered Geran-4 and Geran-5 drones, building up to 4,000 a month. It is still producing up to 2,000 piston-engine Geran-2 drones a month, along with cheap Gerbera decoys made of plywood and foam. HUR said this year’s state order for Geran drones and decoys exceeded 100,000 units. HUR said this “indicates the enemy’s systematic reliance on exhausting Ukraine’s air-defence system,” in UNN’s English translation.

According to NV, the jet models fly at 400 to 500 kilometers per hour. That shortens the time Ukrainian mobile fire teams with machine guns have to engage them. HUR said Ukrainian air defenses shoot down so many Kalibr missiles that Russia now sends most new Kalibrs to its strategic reserve and to re-arm its fleets.

Winter Strike Campaign on Ukraine’s Energy Grid

The estimates come during a run of Russian attacks on power infrastructure. President Volodymyr Zelensky said strikes overnight into Oct. 19 hit 28 substations and other critical energy sites and cut power to at least 550,000 households. Russia launched 16 ballistic missiles and more than 200 drones in that attack, the Kyiv Independent reported. Our earlier report covered the Kyiv strike that left 550,000 homes without power.

Overnight into Oct. 21, Russia struck energy facilities in Kyiv and in the Kyiv, Volyn and Odesa regions, Ukraine’s Energy Ministry said, according to Interfax-Ukraine. Prime Minister Serhii Koretskyi told BBC News Ukrainian that Russia had carried out 2,147 attacks on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure from July 16 through Oct. 17.

Ballistic missiles are the hardest part of that threat. Ukraine relies on U.S.-made Patriot interceptors to stop them. Zelensky said on Oct. 19 that some supplies were being held up “at the level of the U.S. Department of War.” Our explainer on the Patriot interceptor shortage sets out why those missiles are scarce, and our drone warfare guide covers how Shahed-type drones are countered. Daily launch and interception data is tracked on The Boston Report’s Russia-Ukraine War Stats page.

Additional Details

• Oniks and Zircon output: HUR said Russia built more than 55 Oniks missiles and just over 30 Zircons in the first seven months of 2026. In an August interview with RBC-Ukraine, HUR deputy head Maj. Gen. Vadym Skibitskyi gave figures as of Aug. 3 of 33 Zircons and 60 Oniks, and said Russia had already met its annual production target for both.
• Earlier Iskander and cruise missile figures: Skibitskyi told RBC-Ukraine the Iskander-M stockpile stood at around 130 as of Aug. 5, against a planned 60 a month; 65 were made in July. He said the Kh-101 plan for July and August was 72 a month, with 87 made in July, and the Kalibr plan was 26 a month, with 29 made in July.
• Kinzhal pause: Skibitskyi told RBC-Ukraine that Russia suspended Kinzhal and Kh-32 production in April and redirected the funding and components to missiles it considers more accurate.
• July comparison: NV wrote that Russia’s strategic missile reserves are virtually unchanged from mid-July 2026 levels despite the autumn strikes, with only the Kh-101 dipping from an earlier peak of 100.
• Wording differences: NV’s English edition describes the Kh-101 monthly target as 80, while other outlets citing the same HUR reply say “more than 80.” Some Ukrainian-language reports give the Kalibr stock as “about 450” rather than “more than 450.”
• Range of the new ballistic missile: Skibitskyi said in September that Russia planned to finish testing a new ballistic missile with a range of up to 800 kilometers by the end of 2026, Kyiv Post reported. Ukrainska Pravda dated the remarks to a Sept. 8 meeting of the Ukraine-NATO Interparliamentary Council.

Sources

• NV (English): Russia’s missile stockpile steady at pre-autumn levels despite wave of strikes, HUR (Oct. 20, 2026)
• NV (Ukrainian): HUR data on Russian ballistic, cruise missile and drone stocks (Oct. 20, 2026)
• Ukrainska Pravda: Russia has accumulated up to 700 ballistic missiles, HUR data (Oct. 21, 2026)
• Kyiv Post: Russia Has Up to 700 Ballistic Missiles, 6,200 Attack Drones (Oct. 21, 2026)
• UNN: DIU says Russia has accumulated up to 700 ballistic missiles and more than 6,000 drones (Oct. 21, 2026)
• RBC-Ukraine: Interview with HUR deputy head Vadym Skibitskyi (August 2026)
• Kyiv Independent: Russia strikes 28 critical energy facilities (Oct. 19, 2026)
• Interfax-Ukraine: Russia hits energy sites in Kyiv, 3 regions (Oct. 21, 2026)