Russian Kosmos 2612 Stalks U.S. Satellite

A new image released Thursday, Oct. 22, 2026, shows the Russian military satellite Kosmos 2612 closing in on ICEYE-X36, a U.S.-owned commercial radar satellite used by Ukraine, during a close pass in low Earth orbit last weekend. The Kosmos 2612 satellite approach is being called the closest known uninvited encounter between two active spacecraft in that orbit.

The picture was captured by the spatial intelligence company Vantor and shared exclusively with Axios. A readout on the image shows an estimated distance of 1.02 kilometers between the two spacecraft at the moment it was taken. “This image captures a reality long recognized by our national security leaders — space is becoming increasingly contested,” Vantor CEO Dan Smoot told Axios.

How close did Kosmos 2612 get to ICEYE-X36?

Estimates vary, and neither Russia, the U.S. government nor ICEYE has publicly explained the encounter. The tracking firm LeoLabs put the closest approach at roughly 500 meters, SpaceNews reported. Scientific American said some estimates put the gap within 30 meters, and Technology.org cited one estimate of about 26 meters.

Dutch satellite tracker Marco Langbroek, who teaches space situational awareness at Delft University of Technology, placed the closest approach at about 01:35 UTC on Oct. 18, within a few hundred meters or possibly much closer, according to Technology.org. Kosmos 2612 made small maneuvers around that time, which blurs the measurement.

Astrophysicist Jonathan McDowell described it as, to his knowledge, the first rendezvous in low Earth orbit between two active satellites without one owner’s consent, Technology.org reported.

A slow, deliberate chase

Russia launched Kosmos 2612 from the Plesetsk cosmodrome on April 16 with five other spacecraft. In May, four of the six moved into the same orbital plane as ICEYE-X36. Burns on Sept. 30 and Oct. 12, 15 and 16 then matched the Russian satellite’s altitude, orbit shape and period to its target, according to Langbroek’s tracking as summarized by Technology.org.

By the evening of Oct. 17 the two were within 1 to 2 kilometers of each other. After another maneuver around 12:26 UTC on Oct. 18, Kosmos 2612 drifted away, eventually to roughly 100 kilometers. Langbroek saw no sign that ICEYE-X36’s own orbit had been disturbed.

Matching another spacecraft’s orbit this closely costs a lot of propellant, which cannot be refilled, Scientific American noted. That is why analysts treat the chase as intentional.

Why ICEYE matters to Ukraine

ICEYE is a Finnish company that operates about 80 synthetic aperture radar satellites, which can image the ground through clouds, smoke and darkness. ICEYE-X36, launched in 2024, is registered in the U.S. and owned by the company’s American subsidiary. ICEYE signed a collaboration agreement with Ukraine’s defense ministry this year, and a Ukrainian official confirmed to Axios that the military works with the company.

That puts a privately owned satellite inside the intelligence chain of an active war. It also comes as Ukrainian forces report interference with other space services; Reuters reported this week that Kyiv has complained about disruptions to its use of the Starshield satellite system. The Boston Report’s coverage of this week’s Witkoff-Putin talks has more on the strained U.S.-Ukraine relationship.

What experts say the maneuver could mean

During a rendezvous and proximity operation, a satellite can photograph its target, study its hardware, jam its communications, block its sensors or, in an extreme case, physically disable it, Scientific American explained. Even without contact, the target’s operator may have to spend fuel to dodge, shortening its working life.

Victoria Samson, head of space policy at the Secure World Foundation, told Scientific American that the maneuver is not inherently aggressive but is concerning in context. “Russia and Ukraine are literally at war with each other,” she said. Technology.org quoted her describing it as “demonstrating military prowess in a manner that the Ukrainians cannot respond to.” She also urged caution: “I would hold off hysterical speculation until we know more about it.”

Russia has shadowed U.S. spacecraft before. Kosmos 2543 came within about 30 kilometers of the classified satellite USA 245 in January 2020, and Kosmos 2558 got within about 70 kilometers of USA 326 in August 2022, according to Samson. This pass was far closer, and the target was commercial.

A contested orbit

There are few binding international rules for such maneuvers. The U.S. Space Force announced last month that it had placed weapons in space, Scientific American reported, without disclosing details. European officials are also alert to space threats; the EU’s new Arctic strategy leans on satellite surveillance. For now, the Kosmos 2612 episode shows how commercial satellites can become pressure points in a war without a shot being fired.

Featured image: An ICEYE radar satellite, illustration. Photo: Defensie Nederland, CC BY-SA 4.0, via Wikimedia Commons.

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Kosmos 2612 Satellite Approach: New Image Shows Russian Chase of ICEYE