Serbia Election 2026: Vučić Faces Student List in Tight Race

The Serbia election on Sunday, Oct. 25, 2026, is shaping up as the toughest test Aleksandar Vučić has faced since his Serbian Progressive Party (SNS) entered government in 2012. A Student List that grew out of nearly two years of anti-corruption protests is running close to the ruling bloc in the few published polls, and analysts expect a tight result.

Vučić called the snap parliamentary vote last month and stepped down as president so he could run to become prime minister again, the BBC reported. He has served as deputy prime minister, prime minister and president over the past 14 years.

What the Serbia Election Polls Show

Reliable polling is scarce, and the numbers depend heavily on who paid for them. A final Ipsos Strategic Marketing survey of 3,624 people, taken Oct. 20 to 22, put Vučić’s “Aleksandar Vučić – United Serbia” list at 47.4% and the Student List at 40.0%, with the Socialist-led list of Ivica Dačić third at 3.2%. Ipsos states in its release that Vučić’s list commissioned the poll. It projected turnout of about 64.7%.

A survey by the NSPM institute released Oct. 20 showed the Student List narrowly ahead among decided voters, bne IntelliNews reported. With only a handful of pollsters active and a gap of a few points either way, the race is effectively too close to call.

Who Is on the Student List

The movement began after 16 people died when a railway station canopy collapsed in Novi Sad, Serbia’s second-largest city, two years ago. Protesters accused authorities of corruption, and the station’s renovation was part of Vučić’s signature Belgrade-Budapest high-speed rail project, which made the disaster hard for him to distance himself from.

Rather than run themselves, student assemblies at university faculties picked 250 candidates, ranging from academics and economists to engineers and athletes, none with a political background. The list is headed by Ilija Srdanović, a cardiologist and professor at the University of Novi Sad. But the movement has no formal hierarchy, and Srdanović is not necessarily its choice for prime minister if it wins. “It is absolutely normal to stand with my students to help them in their fair struggle,” he told the BBC.

The final campaign rallies showed the contrast. Vučić was the only speaker at an SNS event in Belgrade Arena, while the Student List drew a reported 150,000 people to Slavija Square on Thursday night.

Vučić’s Pitch: Stability, Growth and Old Friends

Vučić retains strong support across a large part of the country. Backers credit him with a decade of economic growth and new infrastructure. He has cast the students as foreign-backed and seeking to “bring down our state,” and he has warned that Serbia’s ties with Russia and China could be cut if they take power. “When you ask them: will you impose sanctions on Russia? Silence,” he told a rally, according to the BBC.

Opponents say the SNS dominates state institutions and the media. International observers at the 2023 parliamentary election cited an “overwhelming ruling party advantage” from media bias and misuse of public resources. A pro-SNS camp has also occupied a park between the National Assembly and the presidency in central Belgrade for 18 months; its residents have repeatedly attacked journalists.

Why the Serbia Election Matters Beyond the Balkans

Serbia is a formal candidate for European Union membership, but talks have moved slowly while Belgrade keeps close ties with Moscow and Beijing, both of which back its refusal to recognize Kosovo’s independence. A Student List government would test whether Serbia tilts more firmly toward Brussels; another Vučić win would extend a balancing act that has frustrated EU officials. The vote also lands as Russia and the West compete for influence across Eastern Europe, a theme in our coverage of NATO’s plans for Russian deterrence and Moscow’s latest government reshuffle.

Official results will be posted by Serbia’s Republic Electoral Commission. Magda Anastasijevic, an analyst at the conflict monitor ACLED, told the BBC that Vučić has survived crises before by finding someone to blame, but “this was not the case for the canopy.”

Featured image: The House of the National Assembly of Serbia in Belgrade. Photo: kallerna, CC BY-SA 4.0, via Wikimedia Commons.

Sources

• BBC News: Student movement takes Serbia’s Vučić to the wire
• Ipsos Strategic Marketing: Pre-election survey results, October 2026 (Serbian)
• bne IntelliNews: Serbia’s Student List leads ruling party in new poll
• Republic Electoral Commission of Serbia: Election results