West front of the U.S. Capitol, where control of the House and Senate is at stake in the 2026 midterm elections

2026 Midterm Elections: Senate and House Battleground Races, Rated

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West front of the U.S. Capitol, where control of the House and Senate is at stake in the 2026 midterm elections
The U.S. Capitol, west front. Photo: Architect of the Capitol, via Wikimedia Commons, public domain.

Published Oct. 16, 2026. Ratings are as of the dates shown and can change before Election Day.

The 2026 midterm elections on Tuesday, Nov. 3, will decide every seat in the U.S. House and about a third of the Senate. Two nonpartisan forecasters, the Cook Political Report and the University of Virginia’s Sabato’s Crystal Ball, rate each race by how competitive it is. This guide lists the House and Senate battleground races as those forecasters rated them, with dates. It does not make predictions of its own.

How the ratings work

Cook sorts races into seven categories. “Solid” races are not considered competitive. “Likely” races are not competitive now but could become so. “Lean” races are competitive, but one party has an advantage. “Toss Up” races are the most competitive, and Cook says “either party has a good chance of winning.” Sabato’s Crystal Ball uses similar labels: Safe, Likely, Leans and Toss-up. A rating describes competitiveness at one moment. It is not a result.

Senate battlegrounds: Cook Political Report (Oct. 6, 2026)

Cook’s Senate ratings, last updated Oct. 6, list seven Toss Up races, one held by Democrats and six held by Republicans:

  • Alaska, Sen. Dan Sullivan (R)
  • Iowa, open seat (R-held)
  • Kansas, Sen. Roger Marshall (R)
  • Maine, Sen. Susan Collins (R)
  • Michigan, open seat (D-held)
  • Ohio, Sen. Jon Husted (R)
  • Texas, open seat (R-held)

In the same update, Cook rates New Hampshire’s open seat Lean Democrat. It rates Georgia (Sen. Jon Ossoff), Minnesota (open) and North Carolina (open, R-held) Likely Democrat, and Nebraska (Sen. Pete Ricketts) and South Carolina (Sen. Graham) Likely Republican. On Oct. 6, Cook moved Kansas from Lean Republican to Toss Up, New Hampshire from Toss Up to Lean Democrat and North Carolina from Lean Democrat to Likely Democrat. Jessica Taylor, Cook’s Senate and governors editor, wrote that Democrats need a net gain of four seats for a majority. She gave Cook’s estimate of a Democratic gain of “two to six seats,” and wrote that Republicans “continue to have a financial edge in almost every competitive state.” Massachusetts’ Senate race, between Sen. Ed Markey and Republican John Deaton, is rated Solid Democrat.

Senate: recent Sabato’s Crystal Ball changes

The Crystal Ball’s rating changes page shows these Senate moves in October:

  • Oct. 6: Alaska (Sullivan) moved from Toss-up to Leans Democratic, and South Carolina (Graham) moved from Safe to Likely Republican.
  • Oct. 14: Kansas (Marshall) moved from Leans Republican to Toss-up, Minnesota (open) from Likely to Leans Democratic, Mississippi (Sen. Cindy Hyde-Smith) from Safe to Likely Republican, Nebraska (Ricketts) from Likely to Leans Republican, and New Hampshire (open) from Leans to Likely Democratic.

The two forecasters disagree on some races. Cook lists Alaska and Michigan as Toss Ups. The Crystal Ball moved Michigan to Leans Democratic on Sept. 22 and Alaska to Leans Democratic on Oct. 6. Both list Kansas, Iowa and Texas as toss-ups.

House battlegrounds: Cook Political Report (Oct. 16, 2026)

Cook’s House ratings, updated Oct. 16, place 214 seats in the Solid, Likely or Lean Democrat categories and 200 seats in the Solid, Likely or Lean Republican categories. Another 21 are Toss Ups. A majority takes 218 seats. Of the 21 Toss Ups, 16 are held by Republicans and five by Democrats:

  • Arizona: AZ-06 (Ciscomani, R)
  • California: CA-22 (Valadao, R)
  • Colorado: CO-08 (Evans, R)
  • Florida: FL-14 (Castor, D) and FL-22 (open)
  • Iowa: IA-02 (open, R)
  • Michigan: MI-04 (Huizenga, R), MI-07 (Barrett, R) and MI-10 (open, R)
  • Montana: MT-01 (open, R)
  • New York: NY-17 (Lawler, R)
  • North Carolina: NC-01 (Davis, D) and NC-11 (open, R)
  • Ohio: OH-07 (Miller, R) and OH-09 (Kaptur, D)
  • Pennsylvania: PA-08 (Bresnahan, R)
  • Texas: TX-15 (De La Cruz, R) and TX-34 (Gonzalez, D)
  • Virginia: VA-01 (Wittman, R) and VA-02 (Kiggans, R)
  • Wisconsin: WI-03 (Van Orden, R)

Several states, including Florida, Texas, Virginia, California and Ohio, drew new district lines before 2026, and that redistricting accounts for many of the rating shifts on both forecasters’ lists. All nine Massachusetts House seats, including the open 6th District, are rated Solid Democrat by Cook.

House: recent Sabato’s Crystal Ball changes

On Oct. 8, the Crystal Ball reported 214 House seats at least Leans Democratic, 219 at least Leans Republican, and two Toss-ups. Its changes that day moved FL-25 (Moskowitz, D) from Toss-up to Leans Democratic, the new FL-22 from Leans Republican to Toss-up, NE-02 (open, R-held) from Leans to Likely Democratic, and WI-01 (Steil, R) from Likely to Leans Republican. On Sept. 29, it moved PA-07 (Mackenzie, R) and VA-02 (Kiggans, R) from Toss-up to Leans Democratic and VA-01 (Wittman, R) from Leans Republican to Toss-up.

The two forecasters’ House totals differ mainly in how many races each rates a toss-up: Cook lists 21 and the Crystal Ball lists two.

Key dates and how to follow the results

Election Day is Tuesday, Nov. 3, 2026. Early-voting and mail-ballot rules vary by state. Massachusetts early voting runs Oct. 17 to Oct. 30. For the current party split in each chamber, bill activity and the latest votes, see our Congress Tracker. For executive actions that have featured in campaigns, see the Presidency Tracker. Our earlier explainer, 2026 Midterm Elections: Control of Congress, Key Dates and What to Watch, covers the calendar. Our Massachusetts Election 2026 guide covers the races on the ballot here.

Sources