Black Friday 2026 Is Nov. 27: Forecasts, Early Sales and Massachusetts Mall Hours

Black Friday 2026 falls on Friday, Nov. 27, and as of Sunday, Nov. 15, the major national forecasts point to holiday spending above last year’s. The National Retail Federation expects November and December retail sales to reach $1.013 trillion, and Adobe projects $12.9 billion in U.S. online spending on Black Friday alone.^[1][2] In Massachusetts, the state’s holiday law keeps most stores closed on Thanksgiving Day, Nov. 26, so the in-store rush starts Friday morning.^[9]

Related: Boston Holiday Markets and Tree Lightings 2026.

What the 2026 holiday forecasts say

All of these figures are forecasts, not results. The NRF predicts November and December sales will grow 4.2% over 2025 to $1.013 trillion, after a 3.1% rise to $972 billion last year.^[2] That is about $41 billion more than last season (TBR calculation). The group also expects retailers to hire 325,000 to 375,000 seasonal workers. Its count leaves out car dealers, gas stations and restaurants.^[2]

Deloitte measures a longer season, November through January, and forecasts sales of $1.70 trillion to $1.71 trillion, up 4.0% to 4.8%. It expects e-commerce to rise 7.5% to 8.4%, to between $316.1 billion and $318.9 billion.^[4] In Deloitte’s survey of 4,000 consumers, shoppers planned to spend an average of $1,654, up 4% from $1,595 in 2025.^[5]

Adobe, which tracks online checkouts, projects $275.1 billion in U.S. online sales from Nov. 1 to Dec. 31, up 6.7%. It expects Cyber Monday, Nov. 30, to stay the biggest online day at $15.1 billion, while Black Friday grows faster, up 9.2% to $12.9 billion. Thanksgiving Day itself is forecast at $6.9 billion online.^[1] Bain & Company expects sales from Black Friday through Cyber Monday to top $85 billion, growing 8.75%, well ahead of its 4.5% forecast for the full season.^[6]

Prices, discounts and early sales

Prices are part of the story. The NRF expects core goods inflation to average 2.5% in 2026, up from 1.6% in 2025, and says higher diesel prices are raising shipping costs while AI investment is pushing up prices for electronics. It still expects about half of holiday growth to come from real spending rather than price increases.^[3] In Bain’s survey, more than half of consumers planned to change their holiday spending, with higher prices among the top reasons.^[6]

Adobe expects discounts to be about the same as in 2025, peaking at 30% off list price on electronics during Cyber Week. It forecasts the best Black Friday deals on TVs, toys, apparel, appliances and furniture, and the deepest Cyber Monday cuts on electronics and computers.^[1]

The season has also started earlier. Deloitte found that 4 in 10 shoppers planned to buy during October sales events, and 28% of holiday budgets were likely to be spent by the end of October, the highest share in six years.^[5] Amazon’s Black Friday Week runs from 12:01 a.m. Pacific time on Nov. 19 through Nov. 30.^[7] Walmart ran early Black Friday deals from Nov. 12 to 15. Its main Black Friday event runs Nov. 23 to 29, and its Cyber Monday event runs Nov. 30 to Dec. 2.^[8]

Thanksgiving closures in Massachusetts

Massachusetts law keeps most retail stores closed on Thanksgiving Day, Thursday, Nov. 26, and on Christmas Day. The Retailers Association of Massachusetts’ 2026 holiday schedule lists both days as “closed” except for exempt stores under Chapter 136, Section 6 of state law.^[9] The exemptions include pharmacies, bakeries, florists, pet stores, gift and antique shops, and small food stores with fewer than three employees, including the owner. The schedule does not apply to restaurants or gas stations.^[9]

The closures do not apply to online orders, which Adobe expects to reach $6.9 billion nationally on Thanksgiving Day.^[1] The Retailers Association of Massachusetts, which issues an annual holiday sales prediction, was still collecting members’ expectations in a Nov. 11 alert.^[10]

Local mall hours and Small Business Saturday

Three of the area’s biggest shopping centers have posted their 2026 hours, and all three are closed on Thanksgiving:

• Burlington Mall: 6 a.m. to 9 p.m. on Black Friday, then 9 a.m. to 9 p.m. on Saturday, Nov. 28.^[11]
• Natick Mall: 8 a.m. to 9 p.m. on Black Friday.^[12]
• Wrentham Village Premium Outlets: 6 a.m. to 9 p.m. on Black Friday, then 10 a.m. to 9 p.m. on Nov. 28.^[13]

Hours for individual stores inside each center can differ, so check before you go. Small Business Saturday is Nov. 28. The U.S. Small Business Administration and American Express are promoting it with the #ShopSmall campaign.^[14] For neighborhood options that weekend and into December, see our guide to Boston holiday markets and the car-free Open Newbury Holiday Stroll on Dec. 6. More local retail coverage is on our Boston Business page.

Our Take

Analysis and opinion from The Boston Report. The forecasts agree on growth, but part of that growth is higher prices, not more stuff in the cart. For Massachusetts shoppers, the closed Thanksgiving makes Black Friday morning and the online deals already running the two real windows. Because Adobe expects discounts close to last year’s, a deal that matches its category’s usual peak is probably as good as it will get.

Follow more business news on our Business & Finance hub.

Sources

1. Adobe: U.S. Holiday Shopping Season to Hit Record $275.1 Billion Online, Rising 6.7% YoY
2. National Retail Federation: NRF Forecasts 2026 Holiday Sales Growth as Consumers Remain Resilient
3. National Retail Federation: Consumers remain the bright spot heading into the holidays
4. Deloitte: Deloitte Forecasts Holiday Retail Sales to Reach $1.70 Trillion to $1.71 Trillion
5. Deloitte: Holiday Spending Set to Increase 4% While Shoppers Focus on Value
6. Bain & Company: Black Friday 2026 Sales Forecast
7. Amazon: When is Amazon’s Black Friday 2026 event? Here’s everything you need to know
8. Retail Dive: Walmart debuts longer Black Friday, Cyber Monday sales events
9. Retailers Association of Massachusetts: 2026 Retail Holiday Schedule
10. Retailers Association of Massachusetts: Last Chance to Submit Your Holiday Sales Prediction (Nov. 11, 2026)
11. Simon: Hours for Burlington Mall
12. Natick Mall: Natick Mall: visit, hours and special hours
13. Simon Premium Outlets: Hours for Wrentham Village Premium Outlets
14. U.S. Small Business Administration: Small Business Saturday

About the reporter: Michael Haverford is an AI reporter covering business, finance and technology for The Boston Report. This article was produced with AI under our editorial policy. Read our AI and media disclosure.