2026 Midterm Elections: Control of Congress, Key Dates and What to Watch

The 2026 midterm elections arrive on Tuesday, Nov. 3, with control of both chambers of Congress and 36 governors’ offices at stake. This report pulls together the current seat counts, what named forecasters and pollsters are saying (with dates), the redistricting fights, campaign finance totals, voting deadlines and the Massachusetts ballot. Every number below is attributed to its source, and forecasts are labeled as forecasts. Nothing here predicts the outcome. Figures were checked on Oct. 11, 2026.

Featured photo: “I Voted” stickers at the Aitkin Public Library, Minnesota, Aug. 11, 2026. Photo: Lorie Shaull / Wikimedia Commons, CC BY 4.0.

What is on the ballot in the 2026 midterms

Every seat in the House of Representatives is up for election. As of Oct. 5, a count by Congress Countdown put the House at 218 Republicans, 214 Democrats and one independent, with two vacancies: Florida’s 20th District and Texas’s 23rd District. The Clerk of the House lists both seats as vacant after resignations in April, with special-election dates still “TBD.” Trackers classify vacancies and the independent differently; Inside Elections describes a 220-215 Republican majority.

In the Senate, 35 seats are up: 33 regular elections plus special elections in Florida and Ohio, 23 of which are currently held by Republicans, according to Inside Elections’ tally on 270toWin. Democrats would need a net gain of four seats for a majority, with the vice president breaking a 50-50 tie. On the governor side, Ballotpedia counts 36 races, 18 held by each party.

How forecasters rate the House and Senate

Several organizations publish race ratings and projections using different methods, so the table lists each with its date. A rating is an opinion about likelihood, not a count of votes.

Cook Political Report wrote on Oct. 9 that “with less than four weeks to go, that heavy spending has yet to move the needle,” describing Republican advertising, as it explained why it moved 18 House ratings toward Democrats. In its Oct. 6 Senate analysis, Cook also wrote that “Republicans continue to have a financial edge in almost every competitive state.”

Sabato’s Crystal Ball moved Alaska’s Senate race from Toss-up to Leans Democratic on Oct. 6, and said Republicans need three of the four remaining Toss-ups for a 50-50 Senate while Democrats need two of four for 51-49, assuming each side wins its leaners. Inside Elections called districts including Texas’s 34th, Colorado’s 8th and Florida’s 25th “consensus toss-up seats.”

Generic ballot polling: what the averages show

The generic ballot asks voters which party they plan to support for Congress without naming candidates. As of Oct. 9 to 11, four named averages show Democrats ahead: Silver Bulletin at 8.9 points (it also publishes a likely-voter-adjusted version at 9.6), TrackTheVote at 8.7 (49.3% to 40.7%, Oct. 11), PollingSource at 8.2 (50.2% to 42.0%, a 30-day mean) and Ballotpedia at 7 (50% to 43%, Oct. 9). Recent individual polls listed by Ballotpedia range from Democrats +3 (Rasmussen Reports, Sept. 24 to 30) to Democrats +11 (Economist/YouGov, Oct. 2 to 5).

Polls differ by voter screen, weighting and method. The generic ballot is a national number and does not translate directly into seats, especially after the redistricting changes below.

Redistricting and court rulings for 2026 maps

An unusual wave of mid-decade redistricting reshaped congressional maps. Ballotpedia, updated Sept. 28, counts nine states with new maps: Alabama, California, Florida, Louisiana, North Carolina, Ohio, Tennessee, Texas and Utah. Its table of “potential result,” which compares the new lines with 2024 presidential results rather than predicting outcomes, nets to +9 for Republicans.

Missouri is a separate case. The legislature passed a new map in 2025 and it was used in the August 2026 primaries, but on Sept. 3 the Missouri Supreme Court ruled that a veto referendum must go on the Nov. 3 ballot, which means the 2022 map governs the 2026 general election. After lower federal courts ordered the 2025 map used, the U.S. Supreme Court stayed those orders on Sept. 25, saying that “as a matter of state law, the 2022 map—not the 2025 map—must be used in the 2026 congressional election.”

Other efforts stopped or were blocked. Virginia voters approved a redistricting amendment on April 21, but the Virginia Supreme Court blocked it on May 8 and the U.S. Supreme Court denied a request to reinstate it on May 15, so the existing 2022 map remains. Indiana’s Senate rejected a new map 31-19 on Dec. 11, 2025, and the Supreme Court left New York’s existing map in place on March 2.

Retirements and open seats

Ballotpedia’s Oct. 2 count lists 60 House incumbents not seeking re-election: 23 Democrats and 37 Republicans. Of those, 32 are retiring from public office. Ballotpedia reported on July 23 that 70 members of Congress were not running again, the most in at least 26 years.

Campaign finance totals

The Federal Election Commission’s Oct. 1 summary covers Jan. 1, 2025 through June 30, 2026. Congressional candidates raised $2.8 billion and spent $2.0 billion, with $1.3 billion in cash on hand. At the same point in 2024, candidates had raised $2.46 billion. PACs raised $8.3 billion, and independent expenditures reported in the period totaled $643.4 million. OpenSecrets reported in October that outside spending was nearing $2 billion.

Source for the table: FEC filings through June 30.

Voting dates and deadlines

Rules vary by state; confirm dates with your local election office or at Vote.gov. According to the Center for Election Innovation & Research (CEIR), 47 states and Washington, DC, offer early in-person voting to all voters; it opens as early as Sept. 18 in Idaho, Minnesota, South Dakota and Virginia and as late as Oct. 29 in Kentucky. In 37 states and DC, voters can request a mail ballot without giving a reason, and eight states and DC mail ballots to all active registered voters.

Registration deadlines range from Oct. 4 in Alaska and Rhode Island to Election Day in several states, according to Ballotpedia. North Carolina’s deadline was Oct. 9, with same-day registration during early voting, which runs Oct. 15 to 31.

Mail-ballot receipt rules are a live issue. On June 29, the U.S. Supreme Court ruled 5-4 in Watson v. Republican National Committee that federal Election Day statutes do not require mail ballots to be received by Election Day, leaving receipt deadlines to the states, per SCOTUSblog. CEIR lists a Nov. 6 receipt date for postmarked ballots in Massachusetts and Virginia and Nov. 23 in Washington state.

Turnout history

The Census Bureau reported that 52.2% of the citizen voting-age population voted in the 2022 midterm, down from 53.4% in 2018. No official 2026 figure exists yet.

Election administration and security

State and local officials run elections, and several have said the federal support picture has changed. At a Sept. 30 briefing hosted by the Partnership for Large Election Jurisdictions, Arizona’s chief information security officer for the secretary of state, Michael Moore, said: “We haven’t had a cybersecurity advisor in Arizona since March 2025,” and that some newly offered services are “much too late,” according to Nextgov/FCW. The Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency (CISA) released an election security plan the week before that assigns its 10 regional directors an election adviser role. Homeland Security Secretary Markwayne Mullin said the plan would be implemented in full, and a CISA spokesperson described the services as “no-cost voluntary services.”

Other officials emphasized continuity. Eric Fey, St. Louis County’s Democratic director of elections, said his office never stopped communicating with the U.S. attorney’s office or the local FBI, even though CISA “was gutted.” Dean Logan, Los Angeles County’s registrar-recorder, said larger jurisdictions have built their own cyberdefenses, while smaller ones may have fewer resources. For a separate look at how influence claims around another country’s election are sourced, see our report on Russia and the Brazil election.

The Massachusetts angle

Massachusetts voters will choose a governor, a U.S. senator, nine U.S. House members and state legislators, and will decide nine statewide ballot questions. We covered the races, candidates and questions in detail in Massachusetts Election 2026: Governor Race and Nine Ballot Questions. As reported there, a CommonWealth Beacon/MassINC survey of 800 likely voters (Sept. 14 to 22, margin of error about 4 points) found Gov. Maura Healey ahead of Republican Mike Minogue 54% to 32% and Sen. Ed Markey ahead of Republican John Deaton 54% to 28%.

Question 4 would let eligible people register or update their address at the polls, effective Jan. 1, 2028; the same poll found 53% yes and 33% no. We also reported on a Boston City Council resolution on Question 4. For voters, the Massachusetts Secretary of the Commonwealth lists Oct. 24 as the registration deadline and Oct. 17 to 30 for in-person early voting. For more local political coverage, see our Politics & Government page.

What to watch on and before Election Day

• The Senate Toss-Ups. Cook’s seven are Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio and Texas; Sabato counts four Toss-Ups, so ratings may keep moving.
• The House battleground. Cook counts 23 Republican-held and 11 Democratic-held seats at Toss-Up or worse; Texas, Colorado and Florida districts are among the ones Inside Elections calls consensus Toss-Ups.
• Missouri’s map referendum. Voters will decide Nov. 3 whether the 2025 map takes effect, but the 2022 map governs this election.
• Vacancies. Florida’s 20th and Texas’s 23rd districts have no special-election dates yet, per the Clerk of the House.
• Mail ballots and counting. Receipt deadlines differ by state after the Watson ruling.

We will update this guide as ratings and counts change; send corrections through our Corrections page.

Sources

• Cook Political Report: Eighteen More House Race Ratings Move in Democrats’ Favor (Oct. 9, 2026)
• Cook Political Report: Senate Race Ratings (Oct. 6, 2026)
• Cook Political Report: A Senate Majority Is Squarely in Democrats’ Sights (Oct. 6, 2026)
• Sabato’s Crystal Ball: Four House Rating Changes (Oct. 8, 2026)
• Sabato’s Crystal Ball: Four Rating Changes, Alaska Senate to Leans Democratic (Oct. 6, 2026)
• Inside Elections: Ratings and Outlook (Oct. 1, 2026)
• 270toWin: Inside Elections 2026 Senate Ratings
• Silver Bulletin: 2026 Midterm Election Forecast (Oct. 10, 2026)
• Silver Bulletin: Generic Congressional Ballot Average (Oct. 9, 2026)
• TrackTheVote: 2026 Generic Congressional Ballot Average
• PollingSource: Generic Congressional Ballot 2026
• Ballotpedia: Generic Congressional Vote Polling Index (Oct. 9, 2026)
• Clerk of the U.S. House: Vacancies of the 119th Congress
• Congress Countdown: Party Breakdown of Congress
• Ballotpedia: Redistricting Ahead of the 2026 Elections (updated Sept. 28, 2026)
• Supreme Court of the United States: People Not Politicians v. Onder, per curiam (Sept. 25, 2026)
• Ballotpedia News: Seventy members of Congress are not running for re-election (July 23, 2026)
• Ballotpedia: List of U.S. House incumbents not running for re-election in 2026
• Federal Election Commission: Statistical Summary of 18-Month Campaign Activity (Oct. 1, 2026)
• OpenSecrets: Outside spending nears $2 billion (Oct. 2026)
• Center for Election Innovation & Research: Dates for 2026 Early In-Person and Mail Voting (Sept. 2026)
• Ballotpedia: Voter Registration Deadlines, 2026
• Vote.gov: Register to vote in U.S. elections
• SCOTUSblog: Justices uphold state law allowing late-arriving mail-in ballots (June 2026)
• U.S. Census Bureau: Voting and Registration in the Election of November 2022
• Nextgov/FCW: Renewed CISA support comes too late for midterm prep, some election officials say (Sept. 30, 2026)
• Massachusetts Secretary of the Commonwealth: 2026 Voting Options
• Newsweek: Democrat chances of winning House, Senate hit new high, Nate Silver forecast

Charts were produced by The Boston Report from the figures cited in each caption. Featured photo credit: Lorie Shaull / Wikimedia Commons (CC BY 4.0).