Trade Policy & Trade Wars

Coverage of U.S. tariffs, retaliation and trade negotiations, with Treasury customs collections and Census trade balances.

Latest reporting

Tariffs: customs duties collected and refunded

Monthly U.S. customs duties, in billions of dollars. Gross is what was collected, refunds is what was paid back to importers, and net is the difference. Refunds jumped after the Supreme Court held the IEEPA tariffs unlawful on Feb. 20, 2026. Verified fact

Show the last 12 months as a table
U.S. customs duties by month, billions of dollars
MonthGross ($B)Refunds ($B)Net ($B)
Sep. 2026$25.27$19.36$5.91
Aug. 2026$23.38$10.54$12.84
July 2026$24.83$33.38$-8.55
June 2026$23.63$49.18$-25.56
May 2026$21.93$21.97$-0.04
Apr. 2026$23.88$1.75$22.12
Mar. 2026$24.02$1.86$22.15
Feb. 2026$27.17$0.58$26.59
Jan. 2026$29.55$1.80$27.74
Dec. 2025$29.33$1.44$27.89
Nov. 2025$31.73$0.98$30.76
Oct. 2025$33.09$1.74$31.35

Source: U.S. Treasury. Data as of: Sept. 30, 2026 statement.

U.S. tariff actions in effect

Tariff actions in effect as of Sept. 30, 2026, as compiled by the Congressional Research Service from Federal Register notices. Rates are statutory rates, not what importers actually paid. Verified fact

Active U.S. tariff actions, 2025-2026
Legal authorityProduct or partnerRateTimingSource
Section 301Forced labor: 60 economies10% or 12.5% on most goods; some partners net of MFN; USMCA-compliant goods exemptSince July 24, 2026Federal Register; Congressional Research Service
Section 301Brazil's trade practices25%, with annex exemptionsJuly 2026Congressional Research Service
Section 232Steel and aluminum10% to 50% (varies by product and country)June 2025 noticeCongressional Research Service
Section 232Copper (semi-finished and derivatives)10% to 50%Aug. 2025 noticeCongressional Research Service
Section 232Autos and parts15% to 25%; some USMCA exceptionsApril 2025 noticeCongressional Research Service
Section 232Trucks, truck parts, buses25% trucks and parts; 10% busesOct. 2025 noticeCongressional Research Service
Section 232Patented pharmaceuticals and ingredients10% to 100% (varies by country)April 2026 noticeCongressional Research Service
Section 232Certain semiconductors and derivatives25%Jan. 2026 noticeCongressional Research Service
Section 232Timber, lumber and derivatives10% to 25%; increase scheduled Jan. 1, 2027Oct. 2025 noticeCongressional Research Service
Section 232Polysilicon and derivatives10% to 15% plus minimum import pricesEffective Dec. 4, 2026Congressional Research Service
Section 232Drones (unmanned aircraft) and components10% to 100% by weight class; components from Feb. 9, 2027Aug. 2026 noticeCongressional Research Service
Section 232Processed critical mineralsNo tariff; President directed negotiationsJan. 2026 noticeCongressional Research Service
Section 338Canada: motor vehicles, alcohol, dairy50% on select goods, no USMCA exemption, plus import bans on some productsJuly to Sept. 2026Congressional Research Service; The Boston Report
IEEPADe minimis duty-free treatmentSuspended globallyApril 2026 noticeCongressional Research Service
IEEPA (struck down)Country tariffs from 2025Held unlawful by the Supreme Court on Feb. 20, 2026; refunds under wayFeb. 2025 to Feb. 2026Congressional Research Service; Troutman Pepper Locke; U.S. Customs and Border Protection
Section 122 (expired)Global surcharge10%; ran Feb. 24 to July 24, 2026; ruled unlawful by the CIT, judgment stayed on appealExpired July 24, 2026Troutman Pepper Locke

Estimate The Budget Lab at Yale estimates the average statutory tariff rate at 11.0% as of Aug. 24, 2026, and Forecast projects 11.8% by the end of 2026 under current law (The Budget Lab at Yale).

Bilateral trade: U.S. goods trade by partner

Annual U.S. goods exports and imports with each partner, in billions of dollars, 2015 to 2025, from Census Bureau data (nominal, not seasonally adjusted). Pick a partner to redraw the chart. Verified fact

January to August 2026 vs. the same months of 2025

U.S. goods trade, January to August 2026, billions of dollars, with change from January to August 2025
PartnerU.S. exports ($B)ChangeU.S. imports ($B)ChangeBalance ($B)
China$73.9+0.7%$183.5-16.3%$-109.6
Canada$236.0+4.0%$269.6+4.2%$-33.7
Mexico$263.5+16.6%$419.3+18.3%$-155.9
European Union$304.9+12.3%$368.3-15.9%$-63.4
Japan$66.7+23.5%$96.5-2.8%$-29.8
Germany$57.9+6.0%$100.6-2.6%$-42.7
Taiwan$39.3+11.3%$186.9+56.8%$-147.7
South Korea$55.0+21.4%$110.1+28.2%$-55.1
India$34.6+18.2%$68.0-7.2%$-33.5
Vietnam$12.2+25.9%$176.1+43.5%$-163.9
Russia$0.4+4.8%$2.2-27.1%$-1.8

Changes in trade flows coincide with tariff changes but also with demand, prices, exchange rates and supply-chain shifts such as AI server imports. This table shows correlation, not causation.

Source: U.S. Census Bureau. Data as of: August 2026 release.

Timeline

  1. Scheduled

    U.S.-China arrangement on tariffs and export-control suspensions due to expire, as extended in September. Tariffs · Export controls (China Prospect)

  2. Court of International Trade certifies a class of importers seeking IEEPA refunds. Tariffs (Troutman Pepper Locke)

  3. U.S. import bans on some Canadian alcohol, dairy and motorcycle products take effect. Tariffs (The Boston Report)

  4. China's commerce ministry says the U.S.-China arrangement is extended to Jan. 10, 2027. Tariffs · Export controls (China Prospect)

  5. Section 301 forced-labor tariffs of 10% or 12.5% start on goods from 60 economies as the Section 122 surcharge expires. Tariffs (USTR; Federal Register)

  6. Court of International Trade rules the Section 122 surcharge unlawful; judgment later stayed on appeal. Tariffs (Troutman Pepper Locke)

  7. 10% global Section 122 surcharge begins, for a maximum of 150 days. Tariffs (Troutman Pepper Locke)

  8. Supreme Court holds the IEEPA tariffs unlawful. Tariffs (Congressional Research Service; Troutman Pepper Locke)

  9. IEEPA tariffs begin in February 2025, later extended to goods from nearly every country. Tariffs (Troutman Pepper Locke)

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