Coverage of critical minerals, chokepoints and economic dependencies, with USGS import-reliance data.
Featured investigations
Tech & export controlsChina’s Critical-Mineral Export Controls: Leverage and Its LimitsChina's critical-mineral export controls have become Beijing's most direct form of economic leverage over the United States and its allies. Since 2023 China's commerce ministry, MOFCOM, has put gallium, germanium, graphite, antimony, tungsten and…
Latest reporting
Supply chainsShipping Costs US to Asia Surge: Who Is Profiting and Who PaysShipping costs US to Asia are surging in October 2026. See container, tanker, grain and air cargo rates, and who is profiting…
Tech & export controlsRare Earth Truce Explained: What the Jan. 10 Deadline MeansRare earth export controls and the US-China truce to Jan. 10, 2027: what China's licensing does, what the summit left open and…
Import dependence: U.S. net import reliance on critical minerals
Net import reliance is imports minus exports, adjusted for stock changes, as a share of apparent U.S. consumption in 2025. Where USGS reports "greater than" a value, we show that floor (for example 50 for tungsten, germanium and lithium). Verified fact
- Gallium100%Main sources 2021-24: Canada, Japan, China, Germany
- Graphite (natural)100%Main sources 2021-24: China, Canada, Mozambique, Mexico
- Antimony (metal and oxide)91%Main sources 2021-24: China, Belgium, Thailand, India
- Rare earths (compounds and metals)67%Main sources 2021-24: China, Malaysia, Estonia, Japan
- Tungsten50%Main sources 2021-24: China, Germany, Bolivia, Vietnam
- Germanium50%Main sources 2021-24: Belgium, China, Canada, Germany
- Cobalt79%Main sources 2021-24: Norway, Finland, Canada, Japan
- Copper (refined)57%Main sources 2021-24: Chile, Canada, Peru, Mexico
- Lithium50%Main sources 2021-24: Chile, Argentina
- Nickel41%Main sources 2021-24: Canada, Norway, Australia, Brazil
Source: U.S. Geological Survey. Data as of: MCS 2026, 2025 data.
Supply-chain concentration: China's share of world production
China's share of world mine or primary production, calculated by The Boston Report from USGS country tables. Refining and magnet-making shares can be higher than mining shares and are not shown. Estimate (our calculation from official data)
- Gallium98.9%2024 primary low-purity production: China 839,000 kg of 848,000 kg world total
- Graphite (natural)77.8%2025 mine production: China 1.40 million t of 1.80 million t
- Antimony (metal and oxide)36.4%2025 mine production (estimate): China 40,000 t of 110,000 t
- Rare earths (compounds and metals)69.2%2025 mine production: China 270,000 t of 390,000 t (rare-earth-oxide equivalent)
- Tungsten78.8%2025 mine production: China 67,000 t of 85,000 t. U.S. import reliance listed as greater than 50%
Source: U.S. Geological Survey. Data as of: MCS 2026.
China's export controls on critical minerals
China's commerce ministry (MOFCOM) issues each control as a numbered announcement. Status as summarized from MOFCOM texts by China Prospect, read on Oct. 22, 2026. Verified fact
| Measure | Type | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Gallium, germanium, antimony, graphite, superhard materials | License required for every destination (Dual-Use Items Export Control List, No. 51 of 2024) | In force (controls since 2023-2024) |
| Ban on dual-use exports to U.S. military end users (No. 46 of 2024, clause 1) | Ban | In force since Dec. 3, 2024 |
| U.S.-specific presumption of denial for gallium, germanium, antimony, superhard materials (No. 46 of 2024, clause 2) | Export ban to the U.S. | Suspended until Nov. 27, 2026 (No. 72 of 2025) |
| Tungsten, tellurium, bismuth, molybdenum, indium (No. 10 of 2025) | Licensing | In force since Feb. 4, 2025 |
| Seven medium and heavy rare earths incl. dysprosium and terbium (No. 18 of 2025) | Licensing, with end-use review | In force since April 4, 2025; never suspended |
| Five more rare earths, rare-earth equipment, battery materials, superhard materials (Nos. 55-58 of 2025) | Licensing | Suspended until Nov. 10, 2026 (No. 70); politically extended to Jan. 10, 2027 but no legal notice as of mid-October |
| Foreign-made goods with 0.1%+ Chinese rare-earth content; rare-earth technology (Nos. 61-62 of 2025) | Extraterritorial licensing | Suspended until Nov. 10, 2026 (No. 70) |
Source: China Prospect. Data as of: Oct. 2026.
Timeline
- Scheduled
Suspension of China's U.S.-specific gallium, germanium and antimony ban due to end unless extended. Export controls · Critical minerals (China Prospect)
BIS suspends the Affiliates Rule for one year; China suspends its October 2025 export-control expansion. Export controls · Critical minerals (Federal Register; China Prospect)
China expands rare-earth controls to foreign-made goods and rare-earth technology. Export controls · Critical minerals (China Prospect)
China requires licenses for seven medium and heavy rare earths. Export controls · Critical minerals (China Prospect)
China adds tungsten, tellurium, bismuth, molybdenum and indium items to export licensing. Export controls · Critical minerals (China Prospect)
China bans dual-use exports to U.S. military end users and sets a U.S.-specific ban on gallium, germanium and antimony. Export controls · Critical minerals (China Prospect; U.S. Geological Survey)
Related coverage and trackers
Search all Supply chains reporting in the archive → · Open the data dashboard
Get economic warfare and trade reporting by email
Sanctions, tariffs, export controls and the data behind them, in The Boston Report newsletter.
Sign up for The Boston Report newsletter
The day's Boston news, weather and local business in one short email, with links to the full stories.