Brazil Runoff: Russia Claims, U.S. Role

Brazilians vote today, Sunday, Oct. 25, in a presidential runoff between President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva of the Workers’ Party (PT) and Senator Flávio Bolsonaro of the Liberal Party (PL). Polls open at 8 a.m. and close at 5 p.m. Brasília time (7 a.m. to 4 p.m. ET), and the Superior Electoral Court (TSE) begins releasing results at the close. No result was available when this article was published. The final days of the campaign were dominated by two questions from abroad: what role, if any, Russia has played, and what the Trump administration has done to shape the outcome.

We set out what was documented about Russia before the first round in our earlier report, Russia and the Brazil Election: Allegations, Evidence and Denials. This article covers what has changed since then and the new reporting on Washington’s role.

Brazil runoff: where the race stands on election day

Flávio Bolsonaro, the eldest son of former President Jair Bolsonaro, finished first in the Oct. 4 first round with 47.03% of valid votes to Lula’s 45.16%, according to TSE figures reported by G1. Neither passed 50%, which forced today’s second round. Our first-round report has the full breakdown.

The final polls point to a close race. Poder360 compiled 18 national surveys with interviews conducted from Oct. 12 to 24 and found Flávio Bolsonaro numerically ahead in 17 of them, measured in valid votes. Among the last surveys:

Datafolha (Oct. 23-24): Flávio Bolsonaro 51%, Lula 49%, margin of error 2 points. Its previous round had the two tied at 50%.
AtlasIntel/Bloomberg (Oct. 18-23): 50.8% to 49.2%, margin of error 1 point.
BTG/Nexus (Oct. 23-24): 50.5% to 49.5%, margin of error 2.2 points.
PoderData/Aya (Oct. 23-24): 51% to 49%, margin of error 1.6 points.
Futura (Oct. 23-24): 50.1% to 49.9%.

Most of these leads fall within the stated margins of error, so the polls do not establish a clear favorite. The one survey in Poder360’s set with Lula ahead was Vox Brasil.

The winner takes office on Jan. 5, 2027, G1 reported. A Lula win would make him the first person to serve four terms as Brazil’s president.

Russian influence: what is documented, and what is not

Documented, but without detail. The main reported allegation remains the one Reuters published on Sept. 30: officials from Abin, Brazil’s intelligence agency, told visiting French and German officials that they had “confirmed the existence of interference from the United States as well as Russia,” according to a report of the meetings compiled by an attendee. Reuters said the Abin officials “gave no details of the alleged Russian interference.” We found no public follow-up from Abin since then that adds specifics.

Official statements. On first-round day, TSE President Kassio Nunes Marques said the court had “no concrete indication of international interference,” the Minas Gerais newspaper O Tempo reported. Asked about the runoff, he said, “Let’s leave the second round for an eventuality.” The same day, Federal Police Director-General Andrei Rodrigues said the force had opened a preliminary procedure, at the request of the Attorney General’s Office (AGU), to examine suspicions of foreign interference and foreign financing. He said it had not yet become a formal police inquiry, Folha de S.Paulo reported. That request did not name Russia in the reporting we reviewed.

Runoff precautions. On Oct. 23, TSE justices met representatives of Meta, X, Google, TikTok and Kwai. The court said the agenda included deepfakes, faster content moderation and the monitoring of coordinated digital attacks launched from other countries, CNN Brasil and Rádio Itatiaia reported. A “Digital Risk Attention Room” with platform staff is operating at TSE headquarters from Oct. 24 to Nov. 4. Neither the court nor the reports attributed any specific activity to Russia.

Unverified. Claims of Russian bot networks or a specific Russian operation aimed at this vote remain unverified. As of today, no Brazilian court, police body, the TSE or Abin has publicly attributed a specific election operation to Russia in the sources we reviewed. The research group The Attention Machine reached the same conclusion on Oct. 9, writing that no Brazilian authority “has documented a foreign influence operation through social media against this election.” Moscow has denied interfering in other countries’ elections, Reuters noted. Brazil and Russia are both founding members of the BRICS group, but that membership is not evidence of election activity.

The U.S. position: no endorsement, but new reporting on a campaign

What Trump has said. President Donald Trump has not publicly endorsed either candidate, Reuters, Politico and The Washington Post reported. After the first round, he called Flávio Bolsonaro’s result “close, but a very, very big victory,” adding, “Amazing, actually,” according to Reuters. A White House adviser told The Washington Post that the silence was strategic: “The thinking was, ‘Just sit quiet.'” Paulo Figueiredo, a Bolsonaro adviser, told the Post that Flávio Bolsonaro did not ask Trump for an endorsement when he visited the Oval Office in May. Secretary of State Marco Rubio, asked on Oct. 5, said the race “went to a second round and everyone expected that,” without naming a candidate, G1 reported.

What Reuters reported on Oct. 24. Citing 10 current and former U.S. officials, Reuters reported that two State Department political appointees, Darren Beattie and Ricardo Pita, led an effort to return the Bolsonaro family to power. According to the report, they instructed U.S. diplomats that restoring Jair Bolsonaro was U.S. policy, later backed Flávio Bolsonaro’s candidacy, and told embassy staff not to engage other conservative contenders. Reuters said it could not determine whether the two acted on orders from the White House or Rubio. State Department spokesman Tommy Pigott did not address the specific claims. He said U.S. actions against narco-traffickers and to protect free speech defend Americans, and that “the Brazilian people have the right to choose their leaders through free and fair elections.”

Documented U.S. measures. In July 2025, Washington announced 50% tariffs on Brazilian goods and revoked visas for eight Supreme Court justices, citing what it called the “persecution” of Jair Bolsonaro. It also imposed Global Magnitsky sanctions on Justice Alexandre de Moraes, then removed him from the list in December 2025 without an official explanation, Reuters reported. The tariffs were later scaled back; see our explainer on how U.S. tariffs were rebuilt. In May 2026 the State Department designated the gangs PCC and Comando Vermelho as foreign terrorist organizations, a day after Flávio Bolsonaro met U.S. officials to urge the step. Lula has warned Washington against encroaching on Brazil’s sovereignty, according to Reuters.

What Americans think. We found no published poll of the U.S. public on whom Americans would prefer as Brazil’s next president. The closest data point is Brazilians living in the United States: in the first round, Flávio Bolsonaro won 61.08% of their ballots, Latin Times reported from TSE overseas results. Those are Brazilian citizens voting, not a survey of Americans.

When results are expected

The TSE starts publishing the count at 5 p.m. Brasília time (4 p.m. ET) on its Resultados site and app. The court has not set a time for a winner to be known; G1 said that depends on how fast the count moves and how close the margin is.

Sources

Featured image: Brazilian electronic voting machine, Superior Electoral Court of Brazil (TSE), public domain, via Wikimedia Commons.

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Brazil Runoff Day: Russian Influence Claims and Washington’s Role