MA Snow This Winter? NOAA 2026-27 View

The Massachusetts winter outlook for 2026-27 from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration tilts toward a warmer and wetter season than normal across much of the East, driven by a very strong El Niño. NOAA released the forecast on Oct. 15, 2026. It covers December through February, but it does not predict how much snow will fall in Boston, Worcester or anywhere else. Here is what the outlook says, what a normal Massachusetts winter looks like, and how to prepare.

Key facts: Massachusetts winter 2026-27

NOAA outlook released Oct. 15, 2026; next update Nov. 19
Driver: a strong El Niño expected to last through spring 2027
Temperatures: warmer than average favored for much of the East
Precipitation: wetter than average favored along the East Coast
Normal seasonal snowfall: 49.2 inches at Boston Logan, 72.9 inches at Worcester (1991-2020)

What NOAA’s winter outlook says for Massachusetts

NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center says an El Niño advisory remains in effect and the event “continues to strengthen.” The latest weekly reading of the Niño 3.4 sea surface temperature index was 2.4 degrees Celsius above normal, according to the center’s Oct. 15 discussion.

For temperature, the agency favors warmer-than-average conditions across the northern U.S., the Midwest, the Mississippi Valley and “much of the East.” The Climate Prediction Center’s discussion places some of the highest odds of a mild season over the Great Lakes and the interior Northeast.

For precipitation, NOAA favors wetter-than-average conditions along the East Coast and across the southern tier of the country. Its drought outlook calls for drought to improve or end in parts of the East Coast through January.

“A very strong El Nino will likely bring a southward and eastward shift to the jet stream for the contiguous U.S., which tilts the odds toward stormier weather across the South,” Ken Graham, director of NOAA’s National Weather Service, said in the agency’s announcement.

Will Massachusetts get a lot of snow this winter?

No official source can say yet. NOAA states that its seasonal outlook “does not project seasonal snowfall accumulations as snow forecasts are generally not predictable more than a week in advance.” A warmer and wetter season can mean more rain in some storms and heavy snow in others, depending on the track and temperature of each system.

Snowfall in Massachusetts also swings widely from year to year even without El Niño. NOAA’s 1991-2020 climate normals estimate that one in four winters at Boston Logan brings 12.8 inches of snow or less, while one in four brings 63.1 inches or more; the middle value is 34.8 inches. At Worcester Regional Airport, the comparable range runs from 27.5 inches to 93.5 inches, with a middle value of 59 inches.

What a normal Massachusetts winter looks like

NOAA’s 30-year normals give Boston Logan an average of 49.2 inches of snow a season. February (14.4 inches) and January (14.3 inches) are the snowiest months, followed by December and March at 9 inches each. October, November and April usually bring less than 2 inches combined.

Worcester, at about 1,000 feet of elevation, averages 72.9 inches. Its snowiest month is February at 21.2 inches, followed by January at 18.2 inches, December at 14.9 inches and March at 13.7 inches. Higher terrain in central and western Massachusetts generally sees more snow than the coast.

For southern New England, the Climate Prediction Center lists a climatological average temperature of 33.4 degrees Fahrenheit for the November-through-January period.

New winter warning tools this season

NOAA says two changes take effect for 2026-27. The National Weather Service’s Probabilistic Precipitation Portal is now operational, showing low-end, expected and high-end snow, ice and rain amounts for a storm. Forecasters will also begin using “Particularly Dangerous Situation” wording in select Blizzard Warnings and Ice Storm Warnings for high-confidence storms of historic severity.

How to prepare for winter in Massachusetts

Residents can check daily conditions on our Boston weather page. City drivers should review the Boston snow emergency parking rules before the first storm. Households worried about costs can find help in our guide to heating bills and assistance for winter 2026-27. The National Weather Service also posts winter safety checklists at weather.gov/safety.

Frequently asked questions

Is winter 2026-27 expected to be mild in Massachusetts?

NOAA’s Oct. 15 outlook favors warmer-than-average temperatures for much of the East from December through February, but that is a probability, not a guarantee of a mild winter.

How much snow does Massachusetts get in an average winter?

Based on 1991-2020 normals, Boston Logan averages 49.2 inches a season and Worcester averages 72.9 inches.

When will NOAA update the winter forecast?

NOAA says its next three-month outlook update is due Nov. 19, 2026.

Sources

Additional sources

Photo: A plow clears snow in Northampton, Massachusetts, February 2015, by Nic McPhee, Wikimedia Commons, CC BY-SA 2.0 (cropped).

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Massachusetts Winter Outlook 2026-27: What NOAA Says About Snow, Temperatures and El Niño