Karlsruhe to Rule on BSW Recount Bid That Could Cost Merz His Majority

Photo: Asmodea Oaktree, Wikimedia Commons, CC BY 4.0 (file photo of the Federal Constitutional Court in Karlsruhe).

Germany’s Federal Constitutional Court plans to rule before the end of 2026 on the Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance’s (BSW) demand for a recount of the February 2025 federal election, a case that could affect Chancellor Friedrich Merz’s majority. A court spokeswoman told Stern magazine the decision “should be issued this year,” Euronews reported on Oct. 28.

What the BSW recount case is about

In the Feb. 23, 2025, election, the BSW won 4.981% of the party-list vote, just under the 5% threshold a party needs to enter the Bundestag through proportional representation. The party fell 9,529 votes short, according to Euronews, citing the official result published by the Federal Returning Officer.

The BSW argues that votes may have been lost to it during counting. Euronews summarized the party’s arguments: ballots may have been credited to other parties, valid ballots may have been overlooked, or valid ballots may have been wrongly ruled invalid. The party points in particular to possible confusion with Bündnis Deutschland, a small party whose name is similar, which experts cited by Euronews say could have caused mix-ups, and to irregularities it says it found in individual polling districts. The BSW says its own calculations suggest more misallocated votes than the margin it missed by. Those calculations have not been confirmed by election authorities.

The challenge has already failed once. The Bundestag’s election review committee found no breach of election law that would have changed the distribution of seats, and in December 2025 the full Bundestag rejected the BSW’s objections by 427 votes to 129, with one abstention. The party then filed an election review complaint with the Federal Constitutional Court in Karlsruhe. The court has not said whether it will hold an oral hearing first, citing the confidentiality of its deliberations.

By the numbers: why a recount matters for Merz

The Bundestag has 630 members, so a majority is 316. The CDU/CSU’s 208 seats and the SPD’s 120, according to group sizes listed by Bundespuls, which uses abgeordnetenwatch.de data, give the coalition 328 seats. That is 12 above a majority, a TBR calculation that matches the 12-seat cushion cited by Euronews.

If a recount put the BSW over 5%, its seats would be added and the other parties’ seats redistributed under Germany’s proportional system. Euronews reported that the coalition would then lose its majority, and that about 30 current lawmakers, including Bundestag President Julia Klöckner (CDU), owe their seats to the current distribution. The outlet listed a search for additional partners, a minority government or, depending on later political and constitutional steps, a new election as possible scenarios. None of those outcomes is certain; the court could also reject the complaint, as the Bundestag did.

A coalition already under strain

The case comes during a difficult autumn for the CDU/CSU-SPD government. Labor Minister Bärbel Bas, an SPD co-leader, resigned on Oct. 12 and is to be replaced by Alexander Schweitzer, the former premier of Rhineland-Palatinate, DW reported. The partners have also clashed over pension, labor market, tax and care reforms. Deputy government spokesman Sebastian Hille said the government remained “capable of acting” and that the three parties were working together “well, constructively and reliably,” according to DW.

Public expectations are low. A YouGov survey for the German Press Agency found that 57% of respondents expect the coalition to end before the next scheduled federal election, Euronews reported. National polls also show the AfD ahead of the Union; see our breakdown of the latest AfD poll lead. The budget fight is covered in our story on the 2027 budget and tax estimate.

The BSW’s role in the states

While it is outside the Bundestag, the BSW remains active in state parliaments. In Saxony-Anhalt, where the AfD won the September 2026 state election but lacks a majority, the BSW holds five seats and is the only party officially negotiating with the AfD on forming a government, DW reported. On Oct. 14, the two parties together passed a motion in the state parliament calling for a halt to arms deliveries to Ukraine and an end to sanctions on Russia. DW noted the motion is symbolic, because sanctions and aid are decided by the federal government and the European Union.

For earlier coverage of Berlin’s foreign policy under Merz, see our report on Germany’s aid to Ukraine.

Sources

• Euronews: Kippt die Koalition? Warum Karlsruhe für Merz entscheidend wird (Oct. 28, 2026)
• Federal Returning Officer: 2025 Bundestag election results
• Bundespuls: Bundestag group sizes, roll-call vote 6730
• Federal Constitutional Court

Additional sources

• DW: Labor minister’s resignation deals a blow to Merz
• DW: AfD and BSW join forces in Saxony-Anhalt (Oct. 14, 2026)
• DW: Reform row raises fears for Merz’s coalition