Geopolitics and Business Report, Oct. 29, 2026: Refiners Cash In as Russian Diesel Sails for U.S.

Economic Warfare & Trade Policy › Sanctions

Good evening, and welcome to The Boston Report’s geopolitics and business report for Thursday, Oct. 29, 2026. Tonight, war is still writing the energy market’s script. Oil slipped on fresh talk of U.S.-Iran diplomacy, Europe’s oil majors banked bumper profits on record refining margins, and the first Russian diesel cargoes cleared by Washington are crossing the Atlantic toward a political fight on the East Coast.

Oil Trades the Peace-or-Strike Question

Crude prices eased today. Brent futures fell 44 cents to settle at $114.88 a barrel, and West Texas Intermediate lost 78 cents to $102, CNBC reported. The trigger was a Wall Street Journal report that Vice President JD Vance had reached out to Iranian Security Council chief Mohsen Rezaei to restart peace talks. Qatari mediators have also floated a new proposal, though a senior Iranian official called it unacceptable.

The signals from Washington point both ways. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth has reportedly removed Lt. Gen. Brett Sylvia as the Joint Staff’s head of strategy, plans and policy, according to the Associated Press, as CNBC summarized. No reason was given. The AP also reported that U.S. officials told some Middle East governments to prepare for possible renewed strikes on Iran after next Tuesday’s midterm elections. President Trump, for his part, played down the idea of peace talks. In Tehran, Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi wrote that “Iran continues to give diplomacy a chance to succeed.”

Corporate travel plans show how seriously companies take the risk. ExxonMobil and Chevron canceled executive trips to next week’s ADIPEC oil conference in Abu Dhabi over security concerns, two sources told Reuters. Exxon chief executive Darren Woods had been due to attend. Both companies declined to comment.

The War Windfall Lands at the Refinery

Where crude goes, refined fuel goes harder. Shell said third-quarter adjusted earnings nearly doubled to $10.81 billion, from $5.43 billion a year earlier, its strongest profit since the second quarter of 2022, according to CNBC. Its indicative refining margin hit a record $42 a barrel, smashing the old mark of $28.04. The company lifted its next quarterly share buyback to $5 billion from $3 billion. France’s TotalEnergies more than doubled adjusted net income to $9.1 billion. The Financial Times reported that European majors are lifting buybacks on the windfall.

The squeeze comes from two wars at once. CNBC tied the shortage of refined fuels to the conflict with Iran and to Ukrainian strikes on Russian refineries. The American results come next. In a note cited by CNBC’s energy desk, BTIG analyst Jonathan Krinsky said the S&P Refining Index is up nearly 160% in 2026 and warned of “significant downside reversion.”

Russian Diesel Heads for the East Coast

The White House has pitched an unusual trade as one answer to that squeeze. Seven tankers carrying an estimated 288,000 metric tons of Russian diesel are sailing toward the United States, according to Greenpeace tracking reported by The Guardian. They are the first phase of a deal President Trump struck with Vladimir Putin this month, backed by a six-month waiver of U.S. sanctions. Energy Secretary Chris Wright said the waiver is “trying to put a carrot in front of Russia,” in an interview with CNBC.

The pushback is now coming from a governor. New Jersey Gov. Mikie Sherrill called the deal “corrupt and illegal” and said she is weighing ways to stop a cargo from unloading at a New Jersey port, as the Financial Times reported. The Guardian reported it is uncertain whether the tankers will be able to unload at all. Senators from both parties have also condemned the agreement. That debate builds on the sanctions shift we covered in our report on Washington weighing sanctions relief for Russia’s sovereign wealth fund.

By the Numbers: What New England Diesel Prices Show

For truckers, fishing fleets and other diesel users around Boston, this is a local story. Retail diesel in New England averaged $6.421 a gallon in the week of Oct. 26, Energy Information Administration data show. By The Boston Report’s calculation from those figures, that is $2.49, or 63%, above the same week a year ago. It is $2.22, or 53%, higher than the last reading before the Iran war began on Feb. 28. The regional peak was $6.517 in late September.

The Russian deal has not moved the needle yet. New England diesel has slipped just 2 cents since the week of Oct. 12, while the national average rose about 17 cents, TBR calculations show. New England’s premium over the national average has narrowed to about 7 cents a gallon, from about 22 cents a year ago.

Europe’s Central Bank Shake-Up Meets France’s Debt

Across the Atlantic, the biggest story was a changing of the guard. Christine Lagarde said she will leave the European Central Bank on Feb. 7, 2027, nearly nine months early, saying she wants “the freedom of expression” to speak on issues beyond monetary policy, CNBC reported. The exit lands before France’s presidential election, as French bond spreads over Germany sit at their widest since the euro-zone debt crisis. Klaas Knot and Pablo Hernández de Cos are widely seen as the top contenders to succeed her. The Economist called it a departure “at a moment of peril”, and you can read more in our earlier story on Lagarde’s decision to step down.

The Political Backdrop: Elections at Home and Abroad

Elections are the other force markets are watching. In The American Prospect, Harold Meyerson writes that unprecedented Arab turnout in Israel’s election left two Arab parties appearing to win 19 of the Knesset’s 120 seats, denying either Jewish bloc a majority. He argues that a similar backlash among Latino voters could hit Republicans in next week’s midterms. Israeli markets reacted to that deadlock this week, as we noted in Wednesday’s geopolitics and business report.

So the week ahead hangs on Nov. 3. The vote, any strike on Iran and the fate of those diesel tankers could all move prices in the days that follow. That’s our report for tonight. From all of us at The Boston Report, thanks for listening, and we’ll see you tomorrow.

Sources

• The American Prospect: Instigators of Electoral Backlash (Harold Meyerson)
• CNBC: Oil prices edge lower as renewed U.S.-Iran peace efforts ease supply fears
• CNBC: Hegseth reportedly fires U.S. top military planner
• CNBC: Shell nearly doubles quarterly profit as refining margins soar to record
• CNBC: Big Oil earnings are set to surge
• CNBC: Trump administration may let more Russian diesel onto market
• CNBC: The politics of Lagarde’s early ECB exit
• Financial Times: New Jersey governor threatens to block delivery of Russian diesel cargoes
• Financial Times: European oil majors lift buybacks as Iran war drives bumper profits
• The Economist: Christine Lagarde departs at a moment of peril
• The Guardian: Seven oil tankers carrying 288,000 tonnes of Russian diesel sail towards US
• Reuters via Investing.com: Exxon, Chevron cancel ADIPEC executive trips
• U.S. Energy Information Administration: New England weekly retail diesel prices
• U.S. Energy Information Administration: U.S. weekly retail diesel prices