How Brazil’s Elections Ended Bolsonaro’s Rule and Sent Two Bolsonaros Abroad

Twice in four years, a Brazil election has ended with Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva winning a runoff and a Bolsonaro leaving the country. In late 2022, President Jair Bolsonaro lost to Lula by 1.8 percentage points and flew to Florida two days before his successor took office. On Oct. 28, 2026, three days after losing the 2026 runoff, his eldest son, Sen. Flávio Bolsonaro, landed in Miami after Brazilian police canceled his passports. This report traces how Brazil got from one exit to the other, using official results from the Superior Electoral Court (TSE) and court records.

The 2022 Brazil election: a narrow loss for Jair Bolsonaro

In the first round on Oct. 2, 2022, Lula, of the Workers’ Party (PT), won 57,259,504 votes, or 48.43% of valid votes, short of the majority needed to win outright. Bolsonaro, running for re-election for the Liberal Party (PL), took 51,072,345 votes (43.20%). Simone Tebet (MDB) finished third with 4.16% and Ciro Gomes (PDT) fourth with 3.04%, according to TSE totals compiled here.

In the Oct. 30 runoff, the TSE reported that Lula received 60,345,999 votes (50.90%) to Bolsonaro’s 58,206,354 (49.10%). Turnout was 79.41% of 156.45 million eligible voters. The court formally proclaimed Lula and Vice President-elect Geraldo Alckmin the winners on Dec. 6, 2022. Then-TSE President Alexandre de Moraes said no legal challenges to the result had been filed.

The campaign took place under a cloud of attacks on the voting system. On July 18, 2022, Bolsonaro gathered foreign ambassadors at the Alvorada Palace and questioned Brazil’s electronic voting machines in a speech broadcast on state TV. That meeting later became the basis of the electoral court case that barred him from office.

Silence, roadblocks and a flight to Florida

Bolsonaro said nothing publicly for nearly two days after the runoff. Truckers and his supporters blocked highways across the country, and a court ordered police to clear them. On Nov. 1, 2022, he spoke briefly but did not concede, Reuters reported, though his chief of staff said the transition would proceed. Supporters then camped outside army barracks for weeks.

On Dec. 30, 2022, Bolsonaro left Brazil for Florida, skipping the traditional handover of the presidential sash at Lula’s Jan. 1, 2023, inauguration. He was still in the United States on Jan. 8, 2023, when thousands of his supporters stormed and ransacked Congress, the Supreme Court and the Planalto presidential palace in Brasília. Bolsonaro condemned the violence from Florida. He returned to Brazil in March 2023.

Barred from office, then convicted

On June 30, 2023, the TSE voted 5-2 to declare Bolsonaro ineligible for eight years from the 2022 election, through 2030. The court found abuse of political power and misuse of the media over the ambassadors’ meeting. His running mate, Walter Braga Netto, was cleared of the sanction unanimously.

Federal prosecutors then charged Bolsonaro and allies with plotting to keep him in power after the 2022 loss. On Sept. 11, 2025, a five-justice panel of the Federal Supreme Court (STF) voted 4-1 to convict him on five counts, Reuters reported. The counts were taking part in an armed criminal organization, attempting to violently abolish democracy, organizing a coup, and two counts of damaging government property and protected heritage. Justice Luiz Fux dissented and voted to acquit. The panel sentenced him to 27 years and three months. Bolsonaro has denied wrongdoing, the AP reported. He was the first former Brazilian president convicted of attacking democracy.

He began serving the sentence in November 2025. In March 2026, after Bolsonaro was hospitalized with pneumonia, Justice Moraes moved him to humanitarian house arrest in Brasília, Reuters reported. In July, Moraes extended that arrangement with no end date. In October, Moraes found that Bolsonaro had violated a court condition and banned visits and political-electoral messages. He kept the house arrest in place but warned that another violation could send Bolsonaro back to prison, Estadão reported. As of Oct. 28, the STF told Estadão that he remained under house arrest.

2026: Flávio Bolsonaro carries the family name

With his father barred, Flávio Bolsonaro, 45, a PL senator from Rio de Janeiro, ran for president in 2026. In the first round on Oct. 4, he led with 56,104,503 votes (47.03%) to Lula’s 53,879,538 (45.16%), G1 reported from TSE data. Augusto Cury (Avante) took 2.89% and Renan Santos (Missão) 2.24%.

In the Oct. 25 runoff, Lula won 64,256,232 votes (51.79%) to Flávio’s 59,826,041 (48.21%), according to TSE figures reported by BBC News Brasil. BBC News Brasil called it the first comeback between rounds in a Brazilian presidential race. Minas Gerais was the only state to flip, going from Flávio to Lula. The AP reported that Flávio called for the results to be annulled, alleging that the rules had changed during voting. Our runoff report has more on the vote.

By the numbers: two runoffs compared

TBR calculations from TSE data show that Lula’s runoff margin roughly doubled, from 2,139,645 votes (1.80 points) in 2022 to 4,430,191 votes (3.58 points) in 2026. His runoff total rose by 3.91 million votes, or 6.5%, from 2022. Flávio’s 59.83 million runoff votes were 1.62 million more than his father received in 2022. Lula’s opponent grew, but Lula grew faster.

The two elections reversed between rounds. In 2022, Jair Bolsonaro gained more ground from the first round to the runoff: 7.13 million votes, or 14.0%, against Lula’s 3.09 million (5.4%). It was not enough to close a 6.19 million first-round gap. In 2026, Lula gained 10.38 million votes (19.3%) between rounds, while Flávio added 3.72 million (6.6%). Lula turned a 2.22 million deficit into a win. Turnout rose from 79.41% in the 2022 runoff to 80.78% in 2026, a TSE-based figure calculated by Fonte Pública.

A second departure

On the night of the runoff, Justice Moraes ordered Flávio to surrender his passports in a money-laundering investigation. When he did not do so by the deadline, the Federal Police canceled them. He crossed into Argentina by land on Oct. 27, then flew by private jet through Ecuador to Miami, landing on Oct. 28, the BBC reported. He faces two STF investigations, and he denies wrongdoing in both. One concerns nearly $70 million transferred from Banco Master to a biopic about his father. The other concerns alleged money laundering.

“I did not flee Brazil; I left for the sake of Brazil,” Flávio said in a written statement, according to the BBC. He repeated allegations of electoral fraud, which the BBC described as unsubstantiated. A planned Miami press conference was canceled, according to Brazilian media reports. His Senate term, and the immunity that comes with it, ends Jan. 31, 2027. Details of his departure are in our reports on his exit from Brazil and his arrival in Miami.

Timeline

• July 18, 2022: Jair Bolsonaro questions electronic voting before foreign ambassadors.
• Oct. 2, 2022: First round: Lula 48.43%, Bolsonaro 43.20%.
• Oct. 30, 2022: Runoff: Lula 50.90%, Bolsonaro 49.10%.
• Nov. 1, 2022: Bolsonaro speaks but does not concede, while roadblocks continue.
• Dec. 30, 2022: Bolsonaro leaves for Florida.
• Jan. 1, 2023: Lula is inaugurated.
• Jan. 8, 2023: Rioters storm Congress, the Supreme Court and the Planalto.
• June 30, 2023: The TSE bars Bolsonaro from office through 2030.
• Sept. 11, 2025: The STF panel convicts him, 4-1, and sentences him to 27 years and 3 months.
• Nov. 2025: He begins serving the sentence.
• March 24, 2026: He is moved to humanitarian house arrest.
• Oct. 4, 2026: Flávio Bolsonaro leads the first round, 47.03% to 45.16%.
• Oct. 25, 2026: Lula wins the runoff, 51.79% to 48.21%.
• Oct. 27–28, 2026: Flávio’s passports are canceled, and he travels via Argentina and Ecuador to Miami.

Sources

• TSE: 2022 runoff final totals
• TSE: Proclamation of Lula and Alckmin
• TSE: Bolsonaro declared ineligible for eight years
• Reuters: Bolsonaro sentenced to 27 years
• G1: 2026 first-round and runoff votes
• BBC: Flávio Bolsonaro denies fleeing Brazil

Additional sources

• Reuters: Bolsonaro does not concede, Nov. 2022
• Al Jazeera: Bolsonaro leaves for Florida
• Reuters: House arrest on health grounds
• Estadão: Moraes keeps house arrest, bans visits
• BBC News Brasil: Where Lula’s 10 million new votes came from
• AP: Lula declared winner as Bolsonaro rejects results
• Fonte Pública: 2026 runoff count (TSE data)