Lebanon Displacement: 300,000 Still Uprooted as UNIFIL Exit Nears

Lebanon displacement remains far from solved seven months into the latest war. More than 300,000 people forced from their homes since early March were still internally displaced as of Wednesday, Oct. 28, UN spokesperson Stéphane Dujarric said on Friday, citing the UN aid office OCHA, which warned that the humanitarian crisis is “far from over,” UN News reported.

Nearly 970,000 people have gone back to their communities in southern Lebanon. But the UN said continued Israeli military activity and presence there, including demolitions, fires and strikes reported this week inside and outside the “combat zone” Israel has declared, is making safe returns difficult. The figures land two months before UN peacekeepers are due to wind down, with no agreed plan for who replaces them.

Lebanon displacement by the numbers

Adding the two OCHA figures, about 1.27 million people have been displaced at some point and are now either home or still uprooted. By a Boston Report calculation, roughly 76% have returned and about 24% have not. At the height of the fighting more than 1 million people were displaced at once, Arab News reported.

Return is not recovery. Many people found damaged homes, broken services and no work. In Nabatieh governorate, farmers in some villages could harvest olives for only two days before the Israeli army forced them to stop, the UN said. OCHA’s Lebanon Humanitarian Fund has allocated $91 million this year for displaced people, returnees and refugees. “Without safety, access to essential services and opportunities to earn a living, families cannot rebuild their lives,” Dujarric said.

How the war in southern Lebanon began and why it continues

The current crisis began on March 2, when Hezbollah fired on Israel after U.S.-Israeli strikes on Iran began on Feb. 28. Israel answered with airstrikes across Lebanon and, from March 16, a ground operation that eventually involved five divisions. A 10-day ceasefire agreed on April 16 was later extended, but Israeli operations in the south continued.

Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz wrote on Oct. 20 that Israel had set up a 700-square-kilometer security zone inside Lebanon, and would hold it until Hezbollah is disarmed, according to Arab News. A U.S.-backed “pilot zone” plan, in which Israel withdrew from West Zawtar in July, has not been extended to other areas amid disputes over how compliance would be verified, Arab News reported. Our earlier report explains why the pilot zone stalled.

UNIFIL’s exit and the fight over what replaces it

The UN Interim Force in Lebanon is scheduled to end operations on Dec. 31 under Security Council Resolution 2790, followed by a phased withdrawal over the next year. EU foreign ministers agreed on Oct. 12 to set up a new mission in Lebanon. “It has a civilian and military pillar,” EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas said, but it will not deploy in the south, Euronews reported.

The size gap is stark. Brussels is considering about 150 personnel, roughly 2% of UNIFIL’s approximately 7,500 troops, by a TBR calculation. President Joseph Aoun has pressed for UNIFIL to stay or be replaced by European forces.

A new idea has also surfaced. Lebanese political sources told the UAE-based Erem News that a roadmap drafted by U.S. Gen. Joseph Clearfield, who heads the mechanism overseeing Lebanon-Israel military talks, would remove international forces and introduce joint Israeli-Lebanese patrols inside the “Yellow Line” area, Kataeb reported. Lebanese broadcaster Al Jadeed reported that the Lebanese Army leadership rejected the idea. The plan has not been confirmed by Washington, and it is unclear whether it was formally presented. Beirut has said any new framework must be tied to an Israeli withdrawal, with a third party verifying both sides. Lebanese and Israeli officials met in Florida this month, as we noted in our preview of the Florida talks.

What to watch

Key signs in the coming weeks: whether the Security Council revisits UNIFIL’s end date, how many troops the EU mission actually attracts, and whether the displaced total falls below 300,000 before winter, when damaged homes become harder to live in.

Sources

• UN News: World News in Brief, 300,000 displaced in Lebanon
• Arab News: Israeli military activity is blocking Lebanon’s recovery, UN says
• Euronews: EU agrees new security mission in Lebanon as UN peacekeepers prepare to leave
• Kataeb: U.S. explores joint Lebanese-Israeli patrols after UNIFIL exit
• Arab News: Lebanese military rejects Israeli pressure for direct military coordination