Economic Warfare & Trade Policy Energy & commodities
Iran has tightened gasoline rationing across 11 provinces, and lines have formed at fuel stations as officials publicly admit the country cannot supply what drivers need, with the dispute reaching parliament on Sunday, Nov. 15.[1][2] The squeeze comes as annual inflation, measured by the Central Bank of Iran, has climbed to 71.4%.[3]
Related: Iran News Update, Nov. 13: Radar Claim Disputed, Nuclear Watchdog Presses Tehran.
What changed at the pump
Each private car in Iran gets a monthly ration on its personal fuel card: 60 liters at 15,000 rials a liter, 50 liters at 30,000 rials and, since Sept. 8, another 50 liters at 100,000 rials.[1][2] Drivers who ran out used to fill up with a station’s own card. Those station cards supplied 41% of all gasoline sold on Sept. 7, about 59 million liters a day.[1]
Since Nov. 1, station cards have been withdrawn in 11 provinces, most of them along Iran’s land borders and the Persian Gulf coast. In Tehran, station-card purchases are now tied to the car owner’s national ID.[1] Executive Vice President Mohammad Jafar Ghaempanah said the plan would spread to other provinces and blamed fuel smuggling across the border.[1][4] Drivers who need more than their ration are directed to premium gasoline at about 1.03 million rials a liter.[2]
Esmail Saghab Esfahani, a vice president who heads the state energy efficiency agency, told Iranians last week to save part of their ration before traveling. “We really have a supply problem,” he said, Iran International reported.[1][4] Iran used about 133 million liters of gasoline a day on average through October, while refineries produce 112 million to 135 million liters, according to official figures cited by the Iranian outlet Rouydad24.[1]
Lines and protests
Iran International reported that residents of Bandar Abbas blocked a road near a fuel station with their cars on Thursday night, Nov. 12, to protest long lines and empty pumps.[1] Radio Farda reported that a Telegram channel published images of long lines of cars in the port city on Saturday, and said it could not independently verify them.[4] In the southeast, IranWire reported long fuel queues in the Chabahar Free Zone and Iranshahr, citing a video from the Baluch rights group Haalvsh.[5]
The head of Tehran’s light-freight and courier association warned that pickup quotas are too small and that higher fuel costs would push up delivery charges and consumer prices, Iran International reported, citing an interview with the IRGC-affiliated Tasnim news agency.[2]
Officials try to calm the debate
Deputy Oil Minister Mohammad Sadegh Azimifar said Saturday evening that the government had made no new decision on gasoline and that the ID requirement for station cards remains experimental.[2] First Vice President Mohammad Reza Aref asked officials the same day not to comment on fuel decisions that are not final.[2][4] On Sunday, Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf told lawmakers that repeated remarks on gasoline had worried the public and that officials should avoid them; any decision, he said, must win public understanding.[2][6] Government spokeswoman Fatemeh Mohajerani has said the two cheapest price tiers will not change.[1]
The anniversary adds weight. On Nov. 15, 2019, a sudden gasoline price rise set off nationwide protests that security forces put down, killing hundreds of people, Iran International reported.[1] Winter could add pressure: a deputy energy minister said the war has knocked out 130 million cubic meters a day of gas capacity, and Mohajerani has warned that gas cuts are possible nationwide, including in Tehran, if consumption stays high.[4][7]
Food prices and inflation
The Central Bank of Iran’s 12-month inflation rate reached 71.4% in the month to Oct. 21, up from 44.2% in the month to Jan. 19.[3][8] Food costs show the strain. IranWire reported that a 900-gram bag of low-fat milk rose from 84,000 tomans in September to 143,000 tomans in November, a 70% increase (TBR calculation).[9] Energy shortages are also touching staples: a local outlet in Gonbad-e Kavus reported that a village bakery in Golestan province had been unable to bake bread for about two months, so residents take dough home to bake, Radio Farda reported. The report did not say which fuel was missing.[7]
Iran-backed Iraqi militia rejects smuggling findings
Across the border, Kataib Hezbollah, an Iraqi armed group backed by Iran, on Sunday rejected a government inquiry that found oil smuggling and illegal refining in its stronghold of Jurf al-Sakhar, near Baghdad, Shafaq News reported. The group said the allegations were fabricated to pressure it into giving up its weapons, and said a technical committee found “no illegal interference” with pipelines.[10] Iraqi Prime Minister Ali al-Zaidi dismissed nine senior officials on Saturday after the inquiry. Analysts told Al Jazeera the crackdown aims to cut the armed factions’ revenue, though one said the financial hit to Kataib Hezbollah may be smaller than expected because it has other income.[11]
More on the war’s economic toll: oil supply tops demand for the first time since the war began and Iran says three tankers hit mines in Hormuz. Follow the conflict on our Iran War Tracker.
Sources
- Iran International: Seven years after ‘Bloody November,’ Iran rations gasoline it dares not reprice
- Iran International: Petrol restrictions spark public anger, fears of rising prices in Iran
- Central Bank of Iran: Inflation Rate
- Radio Farda (Persian): Warning of a hard winter for fuel supply in Iran; fuel oil burning continues amid gasoline shortage concerns
- IranWire: Fuel Crisis Persists in Southeastern Iran With Long Queues in Chabahar Free Zone and Iranshahr
- Radio Farda (Persian): Ghalibaf also calls on officials to avoid comments on the gasoline issue
- Radio Farda (Persian): From bread dough in Golestan to gas cut warnings: how Iran is facing winter
- IranWire: Iran’s Annual Inflation Rate Rises to 71.4 Percent, Central Bank Reports
- IranWire: Dairy Prices Surge Ahead of Official Raw Milk Rate Announcement
- Shafaq News: Kataib Hezbollah rejects Jurf al-Sakhr smuggling findings
- Al Jazeera: Will Iraq’s oil smuggling crackdown disarm militias without a conflict?
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