Strait of Hormuz Tanker Attacks Push Brent Above $117

Economic Warfare & Trade Policy › Energy & commodities

Strait of Hormuz tanker attacks and talk of renewed U.S. strikes on Iran pushed Brent crude above $117 a barrel late last week, its highest price since April. As of Sunday, Oct. 25, 2026, shipping through the strait remains dangerous, Iran’s military says it will not let U.S. warships back into the Persian Gulf, and markets are pricing in the chance that the eight-month war resumes at full force.

Oil prices: the numbers

Brent, the international benchmark, rose about 3.5% on Friday, Oct. 23, to pass $117 at one point before settling just above $116, according to The Guardian. For scale, Brent traded near $72 in February, before the war began on Feb. 28, and peaked around $126 at the end of April. That means oil is still roughly 60% more expensive than it was before the conflict.

Market strategists quoted by The Guardian tied the jump to reports that Washington is weighing new strikes on Iran after the Nov. 3 U.S. midterm elections, to Houthi attacks on Saudi energy sites, and to Ukraine’s drone campaign against Russian refineries, which is tightening diesel supply. The Boston Report covered those strike-planning reports in our story on U.S. and Israeli plans for Iran after the midterms.

What is happening to ships in the strait

Most of the detailed claims about ship attacks come from Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. The IRGC said it struck four commercial ships in the strait on Wednesday, Oct. 21, said seven tankers were attacked or hit mines overnight into Thursday, and then said on Friday that two supertankers had struck mines !Unverified claim, IRGC (Iranian military). Those claims were reported by Al Jazeera and The Guardian, but the number of ships hit and the extent of any damage have not been independently confirmed. The IRGC has also said its doctrine is now “more offensive” and has threatened undersea internet and communications cables if Iran’s civilian infrastructure is struck again.

Iran has also warned it would hit oil facilities, undersea cables, data centers and AI facilities in the Gulf if a new U.S.-Israeli offensive begins, according to The Guardian. The IRGC warned that even limited strikes would bring a response “several times greater,” in comments reported by the Fars News Agency !Unverified claim, Fars (IRGC-affiliated).

Washington and Tehran trade warnings

At a rally in Florida on Friday, President Donald Trump said the U.S. military “may do another Epic Fury,” using the code name for the U.S.-Israeli bombing campaign that opened the war. On Saturday, Ali Abdollahi, chief of staff of Iran’s armed forces, said in a statement carried by Iranian state media that U.S. forces would not be allowed to re-enter the Gulf “under any circumstances,” and that Trump would “take this wish to the grave.”

Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian blamed Washington for the unraveling of an interim deal meant to end the war, while saying both sides should return to it and finish it, in remarks broadcast by Press TV !Unverified claim, Press TV (Iranian state media). On the U.S. side, Director of National Intelligence Jay Clayton warned in an Oct. 23 memo to Secretary of State Marco Rubio that Iran had “substantially increased” efforts to target U.S. personnel, according to the Institute for the Study of War, which cited The New York Times. U.S. officials said Washington has begun reducing diplomatic staff in the region.

Diplomacy without the two main players

On Friday, foreign ministers from Turkey, Saudi Arabia, Pakistan and Egypt met counterparts from the United Kingdom, France, Germany and Italy in Istanbul. Neither the U.S. nor Iran took part. Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan said the group agreed that a new attack on Iran would widen the war across the region and that military intervention “is by no means a solution.” The four regional states backed the Islamabad memorandum of understanding signed in June and demanded unrestricted passage through the Strait of Hormuz, Al Jazeera reported.

What it means for prices at home

Roughly a fifth of the world’s oil normally moves through Hormuz, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration, so every new threat to the strait feeds straight into fuel costs. For New England drivers and homeowners heading into heating season, higher crude and tighter diesel supply mean pressure on gasoline and heating oil prices. Our Oct. 24 geopolitics and business report tracks how the war is moving markets day to day. The next signals to watch are any verified reports of tanker damage from shipping authorities or insurers, any move of U.S. carriers toward the Gulf, and whether the Istanbul group can restart talks before the U.S. votes on Nov. 3.

Sources

• The Guardian: Oil price rises above $117 a barrel amid fears US will renew strikes on Iran
• Al Jazeera: Iran says won’t allow US warships to get close as Trump ponders new attacks
• Al Jazeera: Iran blames US for deal failure, urges new try
• ISW and Critical Threats: Iran Update, October 24, 2026
• Khaleej Times: Oct. 24 live updates