The 7 Most Contested Senate Battlegrounds of the 2026 Midterms: Money, Scandals and Toss-Ups

Featured photo: The west front of the U.S. Capitol (file photo). Photo: Architect of the Capitol (derivative by O.J.), Wikimedia Commons, public domain.

Seven Senate races head into Election Day on Tuesday, Nov. 3, rated as toss-ups by the Cook Political Report, and six of those seats are held by Republicans, Newsweek reported after Cook’s final updates on Oct. 30. They are also the most bitterly fought contests of the 2026 midterm elections, shaped by record spending, a replaced nominee, a dispute over a same-name candidate and attacks that fact-checkers have challenged.

This guide lists, race by race, the latest public polls, the money and the main flashpoints, as reported by news organizations and the campaigns. It does not predict winners. For live counts on election night, follow our 2026 midterm election tracker, and see our earlier Senate and House battleground ratings.

The seven Senate toss-ups at a glance

The list below follows the seven races Spectrum News identified as toss-ups on Oct. 29. Poll figures are each survey’s reported result and margin of error, as reported by Spectrum News unless noted.

Texas: Ken Paxton (R) vs. James Talarico (D)

Open seat, held by Republicans. Sen. John Cornyn lost his primary to Paxton, the state attorney general. Ad spending in the race reached $573 million including primary ads and general-election reservations, a record for a non-presidential contest, according to AdImpact figures reported by ANI. In the general election, Republicans spent $274.1 million for Paxton and Democrats $133.4 million for Talarico, CBS Texas reported, also citing AdImpact.

Flashpoints: Talarico’s campaign has focused on Paxton’s 2023 impeachment by the Texas House over corruption allegations; the state Senate acquitted him on all 20 articles, Spectrum News noted. Republicans, including Paxton’s campaign, say Talarico is too radical for Texas, citing his past comments on transgender children, religion and the oil and gas industry, CBS Texas reported. Elon Musk has spent at least $158 million on ads attacking Talarico, according to Spectrum News.

Polls: CNN/SSRS: Talarico 49%, Paxton 43% (±4.2). The RealClearPolitics average of polls from Oct. 8 to 28 showed Talarico 48.8% to Paxton 47%, CBS Texas reported.

Michigan: Mike Rogers (R) vs. Abdul El-Sayed (D)

Open seat, held by Democrats after Sen. Gary Peters retired. It is the only Democratic-held seat among the seven toss-ups.

Flashpoints: President Trump called El-Sayed, who is Muslim, a “jihadist,” and Trump and Rogers have accused him of antisemitism and of family ties to the Muslim Brotherhood, Spectrum News reported. El-Sayed denies any such connection, and independent fact-checkers found no evidence of a personal affiliation, Fox News reported. We examined the claims in what’s confirmed and what isn’t. In the final days, Democratic Rep. Haley Stevens endorsed Rogers, and El-Sayed’s campaign then reported raising a record $2.4 million in a day, as we reported.

Polls: CNN/SSRS: El-Sayed 49%, Rogers 42% (±4.7).

Maine: Sen. Susan Collins (R) vs. Troy Jackson (D)

Republican-held. Jackson, the state Senate president, became the Democratic nominee after primary winner Graham Platner withdrew following a sexual assault allegation, which Platner denied, Fox News reported. Collins, New England’s only Republican in Congress, has campaigned with former Sen. Joe Manchin and is presenting herself as independent, according to Spectrum News.

Polls: CNN/SSRS: Jackson 49%, Collins 45% (±4.5). An AARP poll by the bipartisan team of Fabrizio Ward and Impact Research, taken Sept. 20–22, found Jackson 50% to Collins 47% (±3.1), with Collins ahead among voters 50 and older.

Ohio: Sen. Jon Husted (R) vs. Sherrod Brown (D)

Republican-held special election. Husted was appointed to the seat JD Vance left to become vice president. Brown, a former senator, is attempting a comeback. Ad spending in the race had reached $514.3 million, according to AdImpact figures reported by ANI.

Flashpoints: Data centers have become a major issue, with Husted criticized for bringing them to Ohio as lieutenant governor, and Republicans worry that Libertarian Bill Redpath could draw votes from Husted, Spectrum News reported.

Polls: Marist: Brown 48%, Husted 44% (±4.5), taken in mid-October.

Alaska: Sen. Dan S. Sullivan (R) vs. Mary Peltola (D)

Republican-held. The ballot also includes an independent, retired teacher Dan J. Sullivan, who shares the incumbent’s name.

Flashpoints: A New York Times report alleged that Peltola’s campaign helped recruit the independent Sullivan, which Peltola denies. The Alaska Supreme Court kept him on the ballot, Alaska’s governor ordered an investigation, and Trump directed the Justice Department to challenge the results if Peltola wins, Spectrum News reported.

Polls: New York Times/Siena, early October: Peltola 50%, Sullivan 43% (±5.1).

Kansas: Sen. Roger Marshall (R) vs. Adam Hamilton (D)

Republican-held. Hamilton, a Methodist megachurch pastor, has raised far more money than Marshall, and the Republican Party shifted money from North Carolina to help the incumbent, Spectrum News reported. Kansas has elected only Republicans to the Senate for 94 years. A Libertarian, David Graham, is also on the ballot.

Polls: CNN/SSRS: Hamilton 49%, Marshall 45% (±4.5).

Iowa: Rep. Ashley Hinson (R) vs. Josh Turek (D)

Open seat, held by Republicans after Sen. Joni Ernst’s retirement. Ernst has endorsed Hinson. Republican strategists worry that Libertarian Thomas Laehn could draw votes from Hinson, Spectrum News reported.

Polls: Marist, October: Turek 48%, Hinson 45% (±6.6). New York Times/Siena’s final survey showed the race effectively tied, ANI reported.

Other contested races to watch

Beyond the toss-ups, Fox News listed Georgia’s Senate race, where Democratic Sen. Jon Ossoff faces Republican Rep. Mike Collins, among the night’s key contests, along with open governor’s races in Ohio, Michigan, Wisconsin, Georgia, Iowa and Florida and Nevada Gov. Joe Lombardo’s re-election bid. Cook moved the Wisconsin governor’s race from Toss Up to Lean Democratic and the Kansas governor’s race from Lean Republican to Toss Up on Oct. 29 and 30, Newsweek reported. In the House, Cook rates Colorado’s 5th, Pennsylvania’s 1st and South Carolina’s 1st districts as toss-ups after its final shifts.

In Massachusetts, see our guide to state races and the nine ballot questions and our Massachusetts election tracker. Boston voters can find hours and drop-box rules in our Boston local news coverage.

When the polls close

Polls close at 7 p.m. Eastern in Georgia and most of Florida, 7:30 p.m. in Ohio, 8 p.m. in Maine and most of Texas and Michigan, and 9 p.m. in Iowa and Wisconsin, according to Fox News. Races called by the Associated Press or other news organizations will be noted on our election tracker, with who made each call.

Sources

• Spectrum News: The 7 toss-up Senate races to watch during the midterm elections
• Newsweek: Forecast shifts 14 races in final days before midterms
• CBS Texas: A look at the big money, tight polls and closing themes in the Texas Senate race
• ANI: Texas Senate race sets record as costliest non-presidential contest
• Fox News: How to watch critical Election Day races
• AARP: Maine election poll

Additional sources

• Cook Political Report: 2026 Senate race ratings