EU Defense Readiness at Risk Despite €418 Billion in Spending, Commission Warns

The EU defense readiness target for 2030 is “at risk” despite record military spending, the European Commission warns in its 2027 work programme, adopted on Wednesday, Nov. 4. A leaked draft of the eight-page document, reported by Euronews, says Europe’s borders, critical infrastructure and “European way” are “increasingly coming under threat,” citing hybrid attacks.

“We therefore need to do more to achieve these goals and to strengthen our resilience, preparedness and capacity to respond rapidly to crises, or worse,” the draft states. The 2030 deadline matters because several intelligence services have identified it as a possible point at which Russia could test NATO, Euronews noted. The Brussels outlet Rapporteur also reported the warning.

EU defense readiness by the numbers

Money is not the main problem. EU member states spent €418 billion on defense in 2025, equal to 2.2% of the bloc’s GDP and the highest level in 30 years, according to the European Defence Agency. That was up 20% from 2024, and spending is projected to reach €454 billion in 2026, DefenceWatch reported, citing a Reuters account of the agency’s findings. The EDA says it could reach up to €547 billion by 2029, by a Boston Report calculation a 31% rise from 2025.

Yet the agency’s first Annual Defence Readiness Report, presented to ministers on Sept. 28, found that higher budgets have not yet produced forces that are deployable, sustainable and interoperable. Gaps remain in air and missile defense, ground combat, naval forces, ammunition stocks and drones, according to the Reuters summary. Investment in counter-drone technology rose about sixfold between 2024 and 2025, but only a third of EU counter-drone programs are expected to deliver by 2030, Euronews reported.

The most expensive hole is in strategic enablers: the airlift, refueling, space, intelligence and cyber assets that let combat forces deploy. Defense Commissioner Andrius Kubilius has said Europe must build its own to replace U.S. assets being withdrawn under President Trump’s force posture review, at a possible cost of €500 billion. By our calculation, that is about 1.2 times what all 27 members spent on defense last year.

What Brussels proposes

The work programme commits to a new European Instrument for Strategic Enablers, covering “strategic transport and air-to-air refuelling to space and cyber defence,” developed with member states. It also proposes a European Security Emergency Protocol, which Commission President Ursula von der Leyen has likened to NATO’s Article 4 consultations, so a member state facing “a direct and credible threat” gets a fast common response. The Commission will “explore” a European Security Council with close partners. Not every capital supports the protocol, according to Euronews.

Spending priorities are air and missile defense, drones and counter-drone systems, and ammunition, according to the Commission’s work programme announcement. Ukraine plans to channel up to €1 billion of its €90 billion Ukraine Support Loan into an EU program tying its defense industry to European partners. Brussels reopened its €21.3 billion SAFE defense loan window last week.

Why it matters

The warning lands as hybrid attacks multiply: the draft cites an explosive-laden drone found near Ukrainian cargo at a German airport and ships sunk by drones in the Black Sea. This week suspected hackers also pushed supermarket freezers to 50C across Europe, and four governments told households to keep 72 hours of emergency supplies. With the war in Ukraine in its fifth year, the gap between Europe’s defense spending and its usable military power is now an official Commission worry.

Sources

• Euronews: Europe’s military readiness plans at risk despite record defence spending
• Rapporteur: Commission warns 2030 defence readiness target is at risk
• European Commission 2027 work programme announcement (via Mirage News)
• European Defence Agency: Ministers welcome first Annual Defence Readiness Report
• DefenceWatch: Europe is spending more on defence, but EDA says it is still not enough