Lula wins Brazil runoff, securing a fourth presidential term: on Sunday, Oct. 25, 2026, President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva defeated right-wing challenger Flávio Bolsonaro by about 4.4 million votes, according to Brazil’s Superior Electoral Court (TSE). Bolsonaro refused to concede and told supporters in Brasília he would seek to have the election annulled.
The final count gave Lula 64,256,232 votes, or 51.79% of valid ballots, against 59,826,041, or 48.21%, for Bolsonaro, the son of former President Jair Bolsonaro. The TSE marked 100% of the country’s 499,248 polling sections as counted at 11:26 p.m. Brasília time. Turnout was about 80.8% of 158.7 million registered voters, according to the court’s published results file. The figures stay provisional until winners are formally certified, a step the TSE schedules by Dec. 18.
Lula wins Brazil runoff after losing the first round
The result is a comeback. Lula finished behind Bolsonaro in the first round on Oct. 4, and the BBC reported that many observers doubted he could reverse that in three weeks. His campaign leaned on large street rallies and a heavy social media push in the final stretch.
Markets had moved the other way. Reuters reported Monday that investors had been betting on a Bolsonaro win, bidding up Brazilian stocks, bonds and the real on hopes of spending cuts and closer ties with Washington, and that exchange-traded funds tracking Brazilian shares were set to give back gains of 10% to 15% made since the first round. Reuters called the outcome a bad miss for prediction markets.
The map split almost evenly. According to G1’s state-by-state breakdown of TSE data, Lula carried 13 states, including all nine in the Northeast plus Amazonas, Amapá, Pará and Minas Gerais. Bolsonaro won the other 13 states and the Federal District, sweeping the South and Center-West. Minas Gerais was the closest state, at 50.43% to 49.57%. Lula’s best state was Piauí, at 75.88%; Bolsonaro’s was Roraima, at 72.46%.
Flávio Bolsonaro rejects the result
Bolsonaro called for the vote to be annulled, alleging the rules were changed during voting, the Associated Press reported. His complaint centers on a Supreme Court ruling that extended voting by two hours, to 7 p.m. Brasília time, after public transportation problems and heavy rain disrupted access to polls in several regions. The BBC noted that both campaigns had asked for polling stations to stay open longer. No court has accepted his challenge, and the TSE has declared Lula the winner.
The challenge echoes the period after the 2022 election, which his father lost to Lula. Earlier coverage from The Boston Report examined claims of foreign influence and Washington’s role on runoff day and the evidence behind allegations of Russian meddling in the campaign.
A hostile Congress and a divided country
Lula’s new term begins Jan. 5, 2027, and he will be 85 by its end. He faces what the BBC called the most right-wing Congress of Brazil’s democratic era, with Bolsonaro’s Liberal Party (PL) making the biggest gains of any party. Passing budgets and reforms will require deals with centrist and right-leaning blocs that have little loyalty to his Workers’ Party.
Before the vote, Lula promised what he called “a new way of governing” to bridge Brazil’s political divide, without giving details. Environmental groups welcomed his win; Euronews noted that his government had cut Amazon deforestation to a record low, and campaigners had warned that a Bolsonaro presidency would give agribusiness and mining interests more sway.
What Lula’s win means for Washington and Latin America
Lula’s victory runs against a regional trend. Argentina, Chile and Colombia all now have conservative leaders, and Brazil is the only large South American country not governed by the right. The BBC reported that the Trump administration would have preferred a conservative in Brasília; President Donald Trump endorsed winning right-wing candidates in Colombia and Honduras but did not directly endorse Bolsonaro.
Brazil holds the world’s second-largest reserves of rare earth minerals and is a major oil producer, which makes it central to U.S. efforts to reduce China’s influence in the hemisphere. Lula warned during the campaign that Brazil would “never fit into anyone’s backyard.” As of Monday morning, neither Trump nor Secretary of State Marco Rubio had publicly commented on the result, according to reports compiled Monday.
European leaders were quicker. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said “democracy and multilateralism have won in Brazil,” Euronews reported. For more on the week’s global picture, see our Oct. 25 geopolitics and business report.
The next steps are formal certification by the TSE and any legal fight over Bolsonaro’s annulment demand. With Israel voting Tuesday and U.S. midterms on Nov. 3, Brazil’s outcome opens a crowded stretch of elections that markets and governments will be watching closely.
Sources
- Tribunal Superior Eleitoral (TSE): official second-round results file
- AP News: Lula declared winner of Brazil’s election, Bolsonaro rejects results
- BBC News: Lula faces hostile Congress and divided country after Brazil election win
- Reuters (via Investing.com): Morning Bid, Lula land
- G1: How each state voted in the second round
- The Guardian: Brazil election 2026 full second-round results
Additional sources
- Euronews: Europe celebrates Lula’s surprise victory (Oct. 26 archive)
- Common Dreams: US urged to recognize Lula’s win
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