Israel Election 2026: Final Polls, Coalition Math and What Happens Next

Israel's Oct. 27 Knesset election: record turnout, final polls by party, the 61-seat coalition math, and the timeline for results and forming a government.

Updated

Election day updates

Updated Oct. 27, 2026, 3:10 p.m. ET: Voter turnout reached 74.3% as of 8 p.m. Israel time (2 p.m. ET), according to the Central Elections Committee, the Times of Israel reported. That is already above the 2022 election’s final turnout of 70.63%, with two hours of voting left. At the same hour in 2022, turnout was 66.3%. The Times of Israel said it is the highest turnout recorded at that hour since 1988.

Polls close at 10 p.m. Israel time (4 p.m. ET). The CEC rejected a request from Likud and allied parties to extend voting hours, and said anyone who reaches a polling station by 10 p.m. will be able to vote even if there is a long line. Exit polls are expected when polls close.

Israelis voted on Tuesday, Oct. 27, 2026, in the election for the 26th Knesset, the country’s first national vote since the Hamas attack of Oct. 7, 2023. Polls close at 10 p.m. Israel time (4 p.m. ET). The final pre-election polls showed neither Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s governing coalition nor the opposition “change bloc” reaching the 61 seats needed for a majority in the 120-seat parliament.

As of this writing, no exit polls or official results have been released. Israeli law bars publishing new polls from the Friday before the vote until polling stations close, and exit polls are published at 10 p.m. Israel time. Official results come from the Central Elections Committee (CEC).

Record turnout on election day

The CEC reported turnout of 55.7% at 4 p.m. local time, up from 47.5% at the same hour in the 2022 election. Acting CEC Director-General Dean Livneh said it was the highest figure for that hour since the committee began recording data in 1973, and that 4,085,075 people had voted by then, according to Ynet. By 6 p.m., the committee’s figure had risen to 66.7%, compared with 57.7% at the same point in 2022. Final turnout in 2022 was 70.63%.

About 7.33 million Israelis are eligible to vote at 12,018 polling stations, plus stations in hospitals, prisons and Israel’s missions abroad. The Times of Israel reported that the CEC rejected several claims of foul play, saying there was no evidence of systematic tampering with ballot slips. The Boston Report’s earlier coverage of the turnout surge and the Netanyahu-Eisenkot contest has more on election-day developments.

Final polls: party-by-party seat projections

The last polls published before the blackout came out on Oct. 23. The table shows the three main broadcaster polls, as reported by The Times of Israel and the poll archive at israelielections.com, alongside each list’s 2022 result where a comparable list ran. Bloc labels follow the groupings the broadcasters used.

Party (leader)Channel 12Channel 13Kan2022 seatsBloc
Yashar! (Gadi Eisenkot)232222New listChange
Likud (Benjamin Netanyahu)21192032Coalition
Together/B’Yachad (Naftali Bennett)151414New listChange
The Democrats (Yair Golan)101084 (Labor) + 0 (Meretz)Change
Joint List (Yousef Jabareen)9995 (Hadash-Ta’al)Arab parties
Otzma Yehudit (Itamar Ben Gvir)888Ran on Religious Zionism list (14)Coalition
Shas (Aryeh Deri)87711Coalition
Yisrael Beiteinu (Avigdor Liberman)8886Change
United Torah Judaism7887Coalition
Religious Zionism-Zehut (Bezalel Smotrich)687See Otzma rowCoalition
Ra’am (Mansour Abbas)5755Arab parties
Reservists (Yoaz Hendel)004New listUncommitted
Coalition total50505064
Change bloc total565452
Poll seat projections published Oct. 23, 2026. A party needs 3.25% of valid votes to win seats. Sources: Times of Israel, israelielections.com, Central Elections Committee 2022 results.

Other pollsters differed. A Direct Polls survey for i24NEWS on Oct. 22 gave Likud 26 seats and Yashar! 21, and a Channel 14 poll the same day gave Likud 30 and Yashar! 20. Kantar’s Oct. 22 poll for Israel Hayom showed Yashar! at 23 and Likud at 21. Ofer Winter’s People of Israel (Amcha Yisrael) list and Moti Leitner’s Haredi Public list fell below the threshold in all three broadcaster polls.

Coalition math: the road to 61

Israel elects all 120 Knesset members from one national list system. Seats are divided in proportion to votes using the Bader-Ofer method, and lists can sign surplus-vote agreements that pool leftover votes. For 2026, the reported agreements pair Likud with Religious Zionism-Zehut, Shas with United Torah Judaism, Together with Yisrael Beiteinu, Yashar! with the Democrats, and Ra’am with the Joint List.

On the final broadcaster polls, the change bloc would need between five and nine more seats to reach 61. The two Arab-majority lists were projected at 14 to 16 seats combined. Ra’am leader Mansour Abbas has said he is open to joining a change-bloc coalition, but several parties in that bloc have ruled out sitting with Ra’am in a government, according to The Times of Israel. Hendel, whose Reservists list crossed the threshold only in Kan’s poll, has not publicly committed to either bloc. Because Netanyahu remains prime minister of a transitional government until a new government wins a Knesset confidence vote, a deadlock would leave his government in place.

How the election came about

The 25th Knesset voted to dissolve itself early on July 17, 2026, by 62-0. The dissolution clause was attached to a party financing bill and passed with votes only from coalition lawmakers, including Netanyahu, after a final run of legislation that included judicial overhaul measures, The Times of Israel and The Jerusalem Post reported. Coalition whip Ofir Katz said: “We are completing a four year term, we have passed nine budgets, hundreds of laws.”

The vote comes as regional tension stays high. Recent Boston Report coverage includes signs of a possible new U.S. strike on Iran and talks between Iran and Mecca Pact nations.

Key dates: what happens next

  • July 17, 2026: Knesset dissolves, 62-0, setting the Oct. 27 election.
  • Sept. 27, 2026: CEC approves the party lists; about three dozen lists end up on the ballot after withdrawals, including Blue and White.
  • Oct. 23, 2026: Final pre-election polls published.
  • Oct. 27, 7 a.m.-10 p.m. Israel time: Voting; exit polls at 10 p.m. (4 p.m. ET).
  • Oct. 28-29: Regular ballot boxes and “double envelope” votes from soldiers, diplomats, patients and others are counted.
  • Around Oct. 29: The CEC expects near-final results around midday.
  • By Nov. 4: Legal deadline to publish official results in the Reshumot official gazette.
  • Within 7 days of official results: Under Basic Law: The Government, President Isaac Herzog consults the parties and assigns a Knesset member the task of forming a government.
  • 28 days, extendable by up to 14: The nominee’s window to present a government and win a Knesset confidence vote, under Article 8 of Basic Law: The Government.

If the first nominee fails, the president has three days to give the task to another member, who gets 28 days with no extension. If that also fails, 61 Knesset members can ask the president to assign a third candidate, who gets 14 days; if no government is formed, the Knesset dissolves and a new election is called, according to the Israel Democracy Institute. The institute notes that in the past two decades no Israeli government has been sworn in less than 50 days after an election.

What is not yet confirmed

No vote counts, seat totals or exit polls are available at publication. Polls in Israel have missed final results by several seats in past elections, and the double-envelope count has shifted the last seats before. The Boston Report will update this coverage when exit polls and CEC results are released.

Sources

Additional sources

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