Should the UK Rejoin the EU? A Decade After Brexit, the Question Returns

A decade after the Brexit vote, the question of whether the UK should rejoin the European Union is back in British politics. That is not because London has applied; it has not. It is because the prime minister has said he would like to see it happen one day. Prime Minister Andy Burnham told ITV’s Good Morning Britain this week, “in my lifetime, I would like to see that happen but I am not going to move ahead of the public,” Politico reported. In the same interview he said, “I’m not proposing rejoining in this Parliament.”

52% would vote to rejoin, 27% to stay out (YouGov, Oct. 4-5)
6-8%: NBER estimate of Brexit’s hit to UK GDP by end-2025
4%: OBR’s long-run productivity loss assumption
Nov. 20: next UK-EU summit, in Brussels

Where the government stands

The government’s formal position has not changed. Burnham told MPs that “the red lines in our manifesto, including on freedom of movement, will stay in place firmly for the whole of this Parliament,” the BBC reported. Labour’s 2024 manifesto ruled out rejoining the single market or a customs union and ruled out a return to free movement. A general election is due by 2029.

The debate grew louder after Burnham told the Sunday Times that free movement should not be off the table in future talks. Downing Street then said the prime minister “isn’t proposing a return to freedom of movement or any option,” according to the BBC. His spokeswoman added: “The PM thinks the Brexit deal is not good enough.”

On October 12, MPs in Westminster Hall debated e-petition 749128, which asks the UK to apply to rejoin. Labour MP Tony Vaughan, who opened the debate, said it had 111,687 signatures. SNP MP Pete Wishart told the chamber that the government’s written response to the petition said the UK “will not be rejoining the EU.”

Where the parties stand

The Liberal Democrats want a customs union and a path back into the single market, and they describe full membership as a long-term goal. In the petition debate, Lib Dem MP Paul Kohler said “the aim of this re-engagement is to one day, in my lifetime, become full and active members of the EU once more.” Green MP Carla Denyer said her party wants to rejoin “as soon as there is a settled majority in favour.” The SNP says Scotland should rejoin as an independent state. Its MPs argued that Scotland voted Remain by more than 60% in 2016.

The Conservatives and Reform UK both oppose a return to free movement. Reform leader Nigel Farage called rejoining “utterly moronic” and said he was “up for the fight again,” Politico reported. Conservative leader Kemi Badenoch accused Burnham of creating confusion over his position.

What the reset actually covers

The real negotiations are much narrower. The European Commission wants to finish three agreements by the November 20 summit, EU Trade Commissioner Maroš Šefčovič told the European Parliament. The first is a sanitary and phytosanitary (SPS) deal that would remove most checks on food and plant trade, in return for the UK keeping its rules in line with EU rules as they change. The second would link the two carbon markets. The third is a Youth Experience Scheme for stays of up to three years. That scheme would not restore free movement.

The Food Standards Agency told its board in September that SPS talks were “at an advanced stage” after the summit planned for July was postponed, according to its update on GOV.UK. The youth scheme is still disputed. The UK is pushing for a cap of about 50,000 visas a year and for the £1,035 NHS surcharge to apply, The Guardian reported, citing diplomats. Brussels has proposed leaving its demand for lower tuition fees until after the summit, Politico reported.

Full membership would be a different process. Under Article 49 of the Treaty on European Union, an applicant needs unanimous approval from the Council and ratification by every member state. The UK’s old opt-out from the euro would not carry over automatically. New members commit to adopting the euro eventually, but only once they meet convergence criteria that include two years in ERM II.

By the numbers: what Brexit did to the economy

All of the main estimates conclude that Brexit made the UK economy smaller than it would otherwise be. They differ on how much. The Office for Budget Responsibility assumes UK imports and exports will each be about 15% lower in the long run, and that long-run productivity will be 4% lower than if the UK had stayed in the EU, according to its Brexit analysis. It expects the full effect to take about 15 years.

Research suggests the damage is already larger than that. An NBER working paper by Nicholas Bloom and co-authors estimates that by the end of 2025, Brexit had cut UK GDP by 6% to 8%, investment by 12% to 13%, and employment and productivity by 3% to 4% each. The authors note that economists’ average long-run forecast at the time of the referendum was about 4%. Goldman Sachs put the shortfall at about 6% in a June 2026 note, with a range of 4% to 8%, Investing.com reported. That was up from its 5% estimate in 2024.

Taken together, these estimates suggest a hit of between 4% and 8% (TBR comparison of the published ranges). Even the lowest figure, the OBR’s 4%, matches the economists’ average forecast from 2016. The newer studies are at or above that level.

Not everyone accepts them. In the petition debate, Conservative MP Sir Bernard Jenkin said the figures “are conjectural projections” and “not facts.” He said the UK economy had grown 7.9% since 2021, compared with 6.8% for France and 1.1% for Germany. Reform MP Danny Kruger said such estimates compare reality with “an unknowable counterfactual.”

What voters say

A YouGov poll for The Times, taken October 4-5, found 52% would vote to rejoin and 27% would vote to stay out. It also found that 64% think a referendum should come before any return, YouGov reported. Among 2016 Leave voters, 22% now say they would vote to rejoin. A separate poll for IPPR and Persuasion UK found the same 52% for rejoining, against 29% for staying out. In a separate test where voters weighed combinations of costs and benefits, support for membership averaged 52% to 48%. IPPR flagged EU budget payments and the euro as the trade-offs that left the case most exposed.

Those polls point to the next test. The November 20 summit will show whether the reset can deliver its narrower deals. Any move toward membership would need an election mandate, and most voters say it would need a referendum. Rejoining would also take years: Labour MP Stella Creasy told MPs that past accessions have taken nine years on average. For the pressures on the UK’s public finances, see our report on the UK budget, defence spending and debt interest. For more on global economic diplomacy this week, see our live coverage of the G20 meeting in Atlanta and our report on new US tariff lists for Canadian goods.

Sources

• Office for Budget Responsibility: Brexit analysis
• NBER Working Paper 34459: The Economic Impact of Brexit
• Hansard: Rejoining the EU debate, Oct. 12, 2026
• YouGov: rejoin and referendum poll, Oct. 2026
• BBC: Burnham on the UK’s EU position
• EUR-Lex: Treaty on European Union, Article 49

Additional sources

• Politico: Burnham wants UK back in EU within his lifetime
• BBC: No 10 clarifies free movement remarks
• Food Standards Agency: SPS programme update, September 2026
• The Guardian: youth mobility scheme and the summit
• Politico: Brussels proposes delaying tuition fee demand
• EU Perspectives: Šefčovič on the reset package
• Council of the EU: joining the euro area
• Investing.com: Goldman Sachs Brexit estimate, June 2026
• IPPR and Persuasion UK: A durable majority (PDF)