AfD Leads Every Major German Poll as Merz’s Union Slips to 19%

Photo: JoachimKohler-HB, Wikimedia Commons, CC BY-SA 4.0 (file photo of the Reichstag building, seat of the Bundestag).

The far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) leads every major national poll published in October 2026, with support between 26% and 30%, while Chancellor Friedrich Merz’s CDU/CSU bloc polls between 18% and 23%. The latest INSA survey for Bild, taken Oct. 23-26, put the AfD at 29.5% and the Union at 19%, according to the Wahlrecht.de poll database.

*TBR calculation: simple average of the most recent poll from each of eight firms listed by Wahlrecht.de as of Oct. 29, 2026.

What the latest AfD poll numbers show

Two polls were published on Tuesday, Oct. 27. Forsa, which surveyed 2,501 people from Oct. 20 to 26, had the AfD at 27%, the CDU/CSU at 21%, the Greens at 16%, the Social Democrats (SPD) at 13% and the Left Party at 11%. INSA, with 2,010 online respondents, had the AfD at 29.5%, the Union at 19%, the SPD and the Greens at 14% each and the Left at 10%.

The other firms point the same way. Verian (formerly Emnid) had the AfD at 28% and the Union at 20% in a survey published Oct. 23; Forschungsgruppe Wahlen, which polls for ZDF, recorded the narrowest gap, 26% to 23%, the same day. Allensbach, which interviews people face to face, had 27% to 23% on Oct. 22. GMS showed the widest gap, 30% to 19%.

The free-market FDP and the Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW) both sit at or below the 5% threshold needed to win seats under proportional representation in most October polls, with readings between 3% and 5%.

By the numbers: how far the governing parties have fallen

At the Feb. 23, 2025, federal election, the CDU/CSU won 28.5% and the AfD 20.8%, according to the Federal Returning Officer. Averaging the latest poll from each of the eight firms, a TBR calculation, gives the AfD 27.8% and the Union 20.4%. That is a 7-point gain for the AfD and an 8.1-point drop for the Union since the election, a swing that turned a 7.7-point Union lead into a 7.4-point AfD lead.

The SPD, the Union’s coalition partner, averages 13.4% across the same polls, down 3 points from its 16.4% election result. Together the two governing parties average 33.8%, compared with 44.9% at the ballot box, meaning their combined share has shrunk by about a quarter. The opposition Greens average 15%, up from 11.6%, and the Left Party averages 10.6%, up from 8.8%.

The trend inside a single series is gradual rather than sudden. INSA’s weekly polls for Bild had the Union at 22% and the AfD at 29% in early July 2026. By late October, the Union had slipped 3 points to 19% while the AfD moved within a range of 28% to 30.5%. INSA’s highest AfD reading this autumn, 30.5%, came in a survey published Oct. 5.

Merz’s ratings and the state elections behind the numbers

Personal ratings for the chancellor are also low. In the ARD Deutschlandtrend for October, only 10% of respondents said they were satisfied with Merz’s work, Euronews reported.

The national figures follow a series of state elections in September 2026 in which the governing parties lost ground. In Saxony-Anhalt, the AfD won the most votes but lacks a majority to govern, and the BSW is the only party that has officially held government talks with it, DW reported. On Oct. 6, AfD lawmaker Tobias Rausch was elected president of the Saxony-Anhalt state parliament with 48 of 82 votes cast, the first AfD politician to hold that office in any German state, according to tagesschau. In Berlin, the Left Party finished first with 25.7% and has been in exploratory coalition talks with the Greens and SPD.

Speaking in the Bundestag on Oct. 14, Merz accused the AfD and the Left of deliberately fueling division. “One gets the impression that you want chaos because you hope to gain political advantage from it,” he said, according to DW.

What comes next

The next federal election is not due until 2029, so the polls do not change the makeup of the Bundestag. But they shape debates inside the coalition over its reform agenda and the 2027 budget, which we cover in our story on the latest German tax estimate. A separate legal fight could also affect the coalition’s thin majority; see our report on the BSW recount case at the Constitutional Court. For background on Berlin’s foreign-policy course, see our earlier coverage of Germany’s Ukraine aid under Merz.

Sources

• Wahlrecht.de: Sonntagsfrage poll table, all institutes
• Wahlwerk: INSA Bundestag poll series
• Federal Returning Officer: 2025 Bundestag election results
• DW: Merz attacks extremes for fueling division (Oct. 14, 2026)

Additional sources

• Wahlspiegel: all October 2026 polls
• Euronews: Why Karlsruhe matters for Merz (Oct. 28, 2026)
• tagesschau: First AfD state parliament president elected in Saxony-Anhalt